Long expeditions D5-a: per-tier supply pack caps

Today's global SupplyPackStandardMax=3 / SupplyPackDeluxeMax=1 were
a 2-day shape; with D1's longer room budgets and D2-b's event-anchored
night burns, a T4/T5 player can't legally buy enough supplies for the
intended duration. supplyPackCaps(tier) now returns (std,dlx) per
tier — T1/T2: (2,1); T3: (3,1) unchanged; T4: (5,1); T5: (7,2) —
sized to clear DailyBurn(raw) × intendedDays × 1.3 even with the
harsh×3 multiplier layered on. Validate takes a tier; both call sites
(!expedition start, !resume) pass the resolved zone's tier. Holiday
+1 standard pack still bypasses the cap on purpose. DailyBurn /
phase5BDailyBurnRatePct unchanged; that's a D7 lever once the sim
can measure event-anchored rollovers.

gogobee_long_expedition_plan.md

@@ -113,12 +113,15 @@ Each successful background walk now logs a `walk` entry (`appendExpeditionLog(..
 **Exit criteria:** a 7-day T5 produces ≤ 10 DMs across the whole expedition (1 launch + 6 end-of-day + 1 boss + 1 run-complete + 1 emergency).
 
 ### D5 — Supplies economics retune
-**Files:** `dnd_expedition.go:38-47` (ExpeditionSupplies), pack-purchase surface (E1b), `applyDailyBurn`.
-**Work:**
-- New pack tiers sized for 2-day → 7-day. Max packs scale with intended duration. Today's caps (PacksStandard ≤ 3, PacksDeluxe ≤ 1) are a 2-day shape.
-- DailyBurn: keep zone-tier scaling, but the autopilot's camp choices now consume meaningful SU per day — so `Max` headroom needs to roughly equal `DailyBurn × intendedDays × 1.3` (slop).
-- Surface supply purchase at launch as a single "Pick your loadout" prompt with 3–4 presets ("Lean: 2-day shape", "Balanced", "Heavy: full T5"), with raw pack counts as an advanced override.
-- Forage and Ranger forage tuning re-baseline.
+
+**D5-a (shipped 2026-05-27):** per-tier pack caps. `dnd_expedition_supplies.go` retires the global `SupplyPackStandardMax`/`SupplyPackDeluxeMax` constants in favor of `supplyPackCaps(tier) (std, dlx int)` — T1/T2: (2,1); T3: (3,1) unchanged; T4: (5,1); T5: (7,2). `SupplyPurchase.Validate` is now `Validate(tier ZoneTier)`; both call sites (`!expedition start`, `!resume`) pass the resolved zone's tier. The cap clears `DailyBurn(raw) × intendedDays × 1.3` for every tier under the §2 target durations even with harsh×3 layered on top, so a player who wants to buy for the long shape can. DailyBurn / harsh-multiplier / `phase5BDailyBurnRatePct` are unchanged here — they're a D7 lever, alongside the sim work that should unblock empirical baselining. The help text now describes the cap as "scales by zone tier"; the holiday +1 standard pack still bypasses the cap on purpose (it's a freebie on top).
+
+> **Note:** the original "Empirical (sim-driven)" path was blocked: under D2-b event-anchored expeditions, `SimRunner.TickDay` calls `deliverBriefing` → `deliverBriefingEventAnchored`, which reads `time.Now().UTC()` for its safety-net check, so synthetic ticks never advance `CurrentDay` and `DaysAtEnd` stays at 0. Re-baselining off real day-counts requires teaching the sim to drive the event-anchored rollover (D7).
+
+**Remaining work (D5-b+):**
+- "Pick your loadout" preset prompt at launch (Lean / Balanced / Heavy) — raw `Ns Md` syntax becomes the advanced override.
+- Forage and Ranger forage re-baseline against the new caps.
+- DailyBurn / `phase5BDailyBurnRatePct` revisit once D7 sim measures real elapsed-day counts.
 
 **Exit criteria:** balanced loadout completes intended-duration expedition in ≥ 85% of sim runs without starvation extraction.
 

internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_cmd.go

@@ -93,8 +93,8 @@ func expeditionHelpText() string {
 	b.WriteString("**!expedition** — multi-day dungeon expeditions.\n\n")
 	b.WriteString("`!expedition list` — show zones available at your level\n")
 	b.WriteString("`!expedition start <zone> [Ns] [Md]` — outfit & begin\n")
-	b.WriteString("    `Ns` = N standard packs (10 SU, 50 coins, max 3)\n")
-	b.WriteString("    `Md` = M deluxe packs (20 SU, 90 coins, max 1)\n")
+	b.WriteString("    `Ns` = N standard packs (10 SU, 50 coins; cap scales by zone tier)\n")
+	b.WriteString("    `Md` = M deluxe packs (20 SU, 90 coins; cap scales by zone tier)\n")
 	b.WriteString("    default: `1s`\n")
 	b.WriteString("`!expedition run` — autopilot: walk rooms until something needs you (alias `!explore`)\n")
 	b.WriteString("`!expedition status` — current expedition snapshot\n")
@@ -199,7 +199,8 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) expeditionCmdStart(ctx MessageContext, c *DnDCharacter
 	if err != nil {
 		return p.SendDM(ctx.Sender, "Couldn't parse supply packs: "+err.Error())
 	}
-	if err := purchase.Validate(); err != nil {
+	zoneForCaps, _ := getZone(zoneID)
+	if err := purchase.Validate(zoneForCaps.Tier); err != nil {
 		return p.SendDM(ctx.Sender, "Invalid pack selection: "+err.Error())
 	}
 	cost := float64(purchase.Cost())
@@ -226,9 +227,10 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) expeditionCmdStart(ctx MessageContext, c *DnDCharacter
 			zone.Display))
 	}
 
-	zone, _ := getZone(zoneID)
+	zone := zoneForCaps
 	// Holiday perk: a complimentary standard pack is added to the supplies
-	// snapshot without inflating the coin cost.
+	// snapshot without inflating the coin cost. Bypasses the per-tier cap
+	// on purpose — it's a freebie on top of whatever the player bought.
 	suppliesPurchase := purchase
 	if isHol, _ := isHolidayToday(); isHol {
 		suppliesPurchase.StandardPacks++

internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_extract.go

@@ -312,7 +312,8 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) handleResumeCmd(ctx MessageContext, args string) error
 	if err != nil {
 		return p.SendDM(ctx.Sender, "Couldn't parse supply packs: "+err.Error())
 	}
-	if err := purchase.Validate(); err != nil {
+	resumeZone, _ := getZone(exp.ZoneID)
+	if err := purchase.Validate(resumeZone.Tier); err != nil {
 		return p.SendDM(ctx.Sender, "Invalid pack selection: "+err.Error())
 	}
 	cost := float64(purchase.Cost())

internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_supplies.go

@@ -11,15 +11,34 @@ import (
 const (
 	SupplyPackStandardSU    = 10
 	SupplyPackStandardCoins = 50
-	SupplyPackStandardMax   = 3 // per expedition
 
 	SupplyPackDeluxeSU    = 20
 	SupplyPackDeluxeCoins = 90
-	SupplyPackDeluxeMax   = 1 // per expedition
 
 	SupplyForageMaxSU = 4 // 1d4 cap (Ranger, WIS DC 12) — §4.2
 )
 
+// supplyPackCaps returns the per-tier maximum standard and deluxe pack
+// counts a player can buy for an expedition. D5-a: caps now scale by
+// zone tier so a T5 loadout actually clears DailyBurn(raw) × intended
+// days × harsh-multiplier — see gogobee_long_expedition_plan.md §D5.
+// Intended-day anchors come from the §2 target table (T1=2 → T5=7).
+func supplyPackCaps(tier ZoneTier) (standard, deluxe int) {
+	switch tier {
+	case ZoneTierBeginner:
+		return 2, 1
+	case ZoneTierApprentice:
+		return 2, 1
+	case ZoneTierJourneyman:
+		return 3, 1
+	case ZoneTierVeteran:
+		return 5, 1
+	case ZoneTierLegendary:
+		return 7, 2
+	}
+	return 3, 1
+}
+
 // supplyDailyBurn returns the base SU/day for a zone tier (§4.1).
 // Tier 1: 1, Tier 2: 1.5, Tier 3: 2, Tier 4: 3, Tier 5: 4.
 func supplyDailyBurn(tier ZoneTier) float32 {
@@ -122,18 +141,19 @@ func (p SupplyPurchase) Cost() int {
 	return p.StandardPacks*SupplyPackStandardCoins + p.DeluxePacks*SupplyPackDeluxeCoins
 }
 
-// Validate enforces §4.2 caps (max 3 standard, max 1 deluxe, no negatives,
-// at least one pack purchased — an expedition without supplies is not a
-// legal start).
-func (p SupplyPurchase) Validate() error {
+// Validate enforces §4.2 caps (no negatives, at least one pack
+// purchased — an expedition without supplies is not a legal start) and
+// the per-tier maximums from supplyPackCaps.
+func (p SupplyPurchase) Validate(tier ZoneTier) error {
 	if p.StandardPacks < 0 || p.DeluxePacks < 0 {
 		return fmt.Errorf("supply pack counts must be non-negative")
 	}
-	if p.StandardPacks > SupplyPackStandardMax {
-		return fmt.Errorf("standard packs capped at %d (got %d)", SupplyPackStandardMax, p.StandardPacks)
+	stdCap, dlxCap := supplyPackCaps(tier)
+	if p.StandardPacks > stdCap {
+		return fmt.Errorf("standard packs capped at %d for T%d (got %d)", stdCap, int(tier), p.StandardPacks)
 	}
-	if p.DeluxePacks > SupplyPackDeluxeMax {
-		return fmt.Errorf("deluxe packs capped at %d (got %d)", SupplyPackDeluxeMax, p.DeluxePacks)
+	if p.DeluxePacks > dlxCap {
+		return fmt.Errorf("deluxe packs capped at %d for T%d (got %d)", dlxCap, int(tier), p.DeluxePacks)
 	}
 	if p.StandardPacks == 0 && p.DeluxePacks == 0 {
 		return fmt.Errorf("expedition requires at least one supply pack")

internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_supplies_test.go

@@ -92,19 +92,52 @@ func TestSupplyAllowsLongRest(t *testing.T) {
 func TestSupplyPurchase_Validate(t *testing.T) {
 	cases := []struct {
 		p       SupplyPurchase
+		tier    ZoneTier
 		wantErr bool
 	}{
-		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 1}, false},
-		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 3, DeluxePacks: 1}, false}, // max
-		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 4}, true},                  // over standard cap
-		{SupplyPurchase{DeluxePacks: 2}, true},                    // over deluxe cap
-		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: -1}, true},
-		{SupplyPurchase{}, true}, // none purchased
+		// T3 is the only tier whose caps are unchanged from the pre-D5
+		// shape (3 standard / 1 deluxe); use it to anchor the
+		// happy-path / over-cap parity assertions.
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 1}, ZoneTierJourneyman, false},
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 3, DeluxePacks: 1}, ZoneTierJourneyman, false},
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 4}, ZoneTierJourneyman, true},
+		{SupplyPurchase{DeluxePacks: 2}, ZoneTierJourneyman, true},
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: -1}, ZoneTierJourneyman, true},
+		{SupplyPurchase{}, ZoneTierJourneyman, true}, // none purchased
+
+		// D5-a per-tier caps. T1/T2 tighten to (2,1); T4 widens to (5,1);
+		// T5 widens to (7,2). A T3-legal 3-standard loadout fails on T1.
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 2, DeluxePacks: 1}, ZoneTierBeginner, false},
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 3}, ZoneTierBeginner, true},
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 5, DeluxePacks: 1}, ZoneTierVeteran, false},
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 6}, ZoneTierVeteran, true},
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 7, DeluxePacks: 2}, ZoneTierLegendary, false},
+		{SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 7, DeluxePacks: 3}, ZoneTierLegendary, true},
 	}
 	for _, c := range cases {
-		err := c.p.Validate()
+		err := c.p.Validate(c.tier)
 		if (err != nil) != c.wantErr {
-			t.Errorf("%+v: err = %v, wantErr=%v", c.p, err, c.wantErr)
+			t.Errorf("%+v T%d: err = %v, wantErr=%v", c.p, int(c.tier), err, c.wantErr)
+		}
+	}
+}
+
+func TestSupplyPackCaps_PerTier(t *testing.T) {
+	cases := []struct {
+		tier    ZoneTier
+		wantStd int
+		wantDlx int
+	}{
+		{ZoneTierBeginner, 2, 1},
+		{ZoneTierApprentice, 2, 1},
+		{ZoneTierJourneyman, 3, 1},
+		{ZoneTierVeteran, 5, 1},
+		{ZoneTierLegendary, 7, 2},
+	}
+	for _, c := range cases {
+		s, d := supplyPackCaps(c.tier)
+		if s != c.wantStd || d != c.wantDlx {
+			t.Errorf("T%d caps: got (%d,%d), want (%d,%d)", int(c.tier), s, d, c.wantStd, c.wantDlx)
 		}
 	}
 }