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Phase 5C (rosters): T3 polish + feywild T4-spread fix

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Phase 5-B's exit named two follow-ups: T3 below band (manor 39 /
underforge 47 vs 55-75) and the T4 spread (feywild 59 vs underdark
88, 30pp asymmetry). Phase 5-C re-runs the Phase 4-A trace on the
four affected zones under the shipped Phase 5-B cell and applies
roster knobs only (IsElite + SpawnWeight; no bestiary stat-block
touches).

TestExpeditionBalance_Phase5C_OutlierDiagnostic names the killer
per zone:

  manor_blackspire (53%): Vampire Spawn (72% win, 42 kills) +
    Revenant (16% win, 31 kills at SW=1, can't go lower). First
    attempt trimmed VS SW 3 -> 2 and backfired by concentrating
    elite share on Revenant (kills jumped to 48); reverted.
  underforge (49.5%): Fire Elemental (57 kills, 61hp/win) +
    Salamander (33 kills) carry the lethality; Helmed Horror only
    100%-win elite but SW=1, no dilution effect.
  feywild_crossing (54%): only 2 elites in the pool; Fomorian
    (50% win, SW=1) still pulls 25% of elite picks and owns 65
    kills.
  underdark (86%): Drow at SW=7 fills nearly half of standard
    rolls at 100% win / 1.1hp loss -- free-HP filler.

Roster changes:

  manor    Banshee promoted to elite SW=2 (was standard SW=3,
           99.6% win). Soft 4th elite slot dilutes Revenant share
           ~14% -> ~11%. Standards collapse to Shadow+Poltergeist
           (>=99% win).

  underforge  Helmed Horror SW 1 -> 3. Three-way elite pool drops
              Fire Elemental's share from ~44% to ~33%.

  feywild  Green Hag promoted to elite SW=2 (was standard SW=4).
           Adds soft 3rd elite + removes a 16hp/win standard.
           Standards become Redcap+Will-o-Wisp+Quickling.

  underdark  Drow SW 7 -> 5 (light trim per the user's "lift
             trailers, don't nerf leaders" stance). Standards
             shift toward Hook Horror / Drow Mage.

Phase 1 matrix after Phase 5-C (200 trials, Fighter @ centerline):

  T1  88.5%  spread  1.0   (in band 70-90)
  T2  74.5%  spread 15.0   (in band 62-82)
  T3  56.7%  spread  0.5   (in band 55-75)  +13.5pp
  T4  77.0%  spread 13.0   (over band 45-65, matches 5-B target;
                            spread halved from 25.5)
  T5  58.0%  spread 40.0   (abyss_portal 38% is the residual)

T3 mean lifted +13.5pp; both zones inside band with 0.5pp residual
spread. T4 spread halved (25.5 -> 13.0pp) by lifting feywild
+11.5pp and trimming underdark -4.5pp. T1/T2/T5 untouched.

No test debt -- no production tests pin SpawnWeight or IsElite on
the changed entries (TestMonsterKillTags_GatesKnownMonsters checks
vampire_spawn tags only, unaffected). -short suite green.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -553,6 +553,90 @@ hump and is fine for "some death" tier shape. Remaining work
(Phase 5-C+) is T3 roster polish + feywild T4-spread fix — separate
session.
#### Phase 5-C — T3 polish + T4 spread fix (rosters only)
Phase 5-B's exit named two follow-ups: T3 below band (manor 39 /
underforge 47 vs 55-75), and the T4 spread (feywild 59 vs underdark
88 = 30pp asymmetry). Phase 5-C re-runs the Phase 4-A trace on the
four affected zones at the shipped Phase 5-B cell
(`TestExpeditionBalance_Phase5C_OutlierDiagnostic`) and identifies
which monsters own the lethality budget per zone, then applies the
Phase 4-B toolset (IsElite toggle + SpawnWeight rebalance only — no
bestiary stat-block touches).
Per-zone reads from the diagnostic (200 trials, L9/L13 Fighter,
e=23 d=1 burn=50):
manor_blackspire (53% comp): standards all ≥99% win. Elite pool
is the lethality source — Vampire Spawn (72% win, 42 kills) and
Revenant (16% win, 31 kills at SW=1) split the kill budget.
Revenant can't drop below SW=1, and trimming Vampire Spawn
(first attempt: SW 3 → 2) backfired by shifting elite share onto
Revenant — kills jumped to 48 and completion fell to 44.5%.
underforge (49.5% comp): Fire Elemental (57 kills, 61hp/win) +
Salamander (33 kills) own elite share. Helmed Horror was the
only 100%-win elite but sat at SW=1, providing almost no
dilution.
feywild_crossing (54% comp): Fomorian alone (65 kills, 50% win,
SW=1) owns the elite kill budget — only 2 elites in the pool
(Night Hag SW=3 + Fomorian SW=1), so Fomorian still gets 25% of
elite picks despite the low weight.
underdark (86% comp): Drow at SW=7 (1801/4164 standard rolls,
100% win / 1.1hp loss) is a free-HP filler dominating the
standard pool.
Roster changes shipped (`dnd_zone.go`):
manor_blackspire — Banshee promoted to elite at SW=2 (was SW=3
standard, 99.6% win, 11hp loss): adds a soft 4th elite slot,
dropping Revenant's elite share ~14% → 11% without changing
its presence. Standard floor collapses to Shadow + Poltergeist,
both ≥99% win at ≤5hp loss.
underforge — Helmed Horror SW 1 → 3 (98%+ win, 15hp loss): three
roughly-equal elite slots (Salamander 3 + Fire Elemental 3 +
Helmed Horror 3), reducing Fire Elemental's elite share from
~44% to ~33%.
feywild_crossing — Green Hag promoted to elite at SW=2 (was SW=4
standard, 98% win, 16hp loss): adds a softer 3rd elite slot,
diluting Fomorian's share, AND pulls a moderate-attrition fight
out of the standard pool. Standard floor becomes Redcap +
Will-o-Wisp + Quickling (all ≥99% win, ≤11hp loss).
underdark (light trim per user's "lift trailers, don't nerf
leaders" stance) — Drow SW 7 → 5: standards shift toward Hook
Horror (17.8hp/win) and Drow Mage (16.4hp/win), still safe but
with real attrition.
Phase 1 matrix after Phase 5-C (200 trials, Fighter @ centerline):
```
T1 88.5% spread 1.0 (crypt 89, goblin 88) ⬆ band 70-90 — IN BAND
T2 74.5% spread 15.0 (forest 82, sunken 67) ⬆ band 62-82 — IN BAND
T3 56.7% spread 0.5 (manor 57, underforge 56.5) ⬆ band 55-75 — IN BAND ⬆ +13.5pp
T4 77.0% spread 13.0 (feywild 70.5, underdark 83.5) ⬆ band 45-65 — OVER (matches 5-B target)
T5 58.0% spread 40.0 (abyss 38, dragons 78) ⬆ band 35-55 — borderline (abyss the residual)
```
T3 mean lifted +13.5pp; both zones land inside the band with a
0.5pp residual spread. T4 spread halved (25.5 → 13.0pp) by lifting
feywild +11.5pp and trimming underdark -4.5pp, matching the user's
chosen "lift mostly, trim lightly" direction. T1/T2/T5 untouched.
**Test debt:** none — no production tests pinned the changed
SpawnWeight or IsElite values. `TestMonsterKillTags_GatesKnownMonsters`
checks `vampire_spawn` tags but is unaffected by weight.
**Exit:** T1-T4 all in or above band; T5's abyss_portal (38%) is
the only remaining sub-band cell and is a tier-asymmetry residual,
not a per-zone outlier. Phase 5-D could revisit abyss specifically,
but it's optional — the user's "breezy with some death" target is
hit across the live tier ladder.
### Phase 6 — optional MAD / second-order
If post-Phase-3 the bands hold but feel wrong subjectively