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Phase 5C (rosters): T3 polish + feywild T4-spread fix
Phase 5-B's exit named two follow-ups: T3 below band (manor 39 /
underforge 47 vs 55-75) and the T4 spread (feywild 59 vs underdark
88, 30pp asymmetry). Phase 5-C re-runs the Phase 4-A trace on the
four affected zones under the shipped Phase 5-B cell and applies
roster knobs only (IsElite + SpawnWeight; no bestiary stat-block
touches).
TestExpeditionBalance_Phase5C_OutlierDiagnostic names the killer
per zone:
manor_blackspire (53%): Vampire Spawn (72% win, 42 kills) +
Revenant (16% win, 31 kills at SW=1, can't go lower). First
attempt trimmed VS SW 3 -> 2 and backfired by concentrating
elite share on Revenant (kills jumped to 48); reverted.
underforge (49.5%): Fire Elemental (57 kills, 61hp/win) +
Salamander (33 kills) carry the lethality; Helmed Horror only
100%-win elite but SW=1, no dilution effect.
feywild_crossing (54%): only 2 elites in the pool; Fomorian
(50% win, SW=1) still pulls 25% of elite picks and owns 65
kills.
underdark (86%): Drow at SW=7 fills nearly half of standard
rolls at 100% win / 1.1hp loss -- free-HP filler.
Roster changes:
manor Banshee promoted to elite SW=2 (was standard SW=3,
99.6% win). Soft 4th elite slot dilutes Revenant share
~14% -> ~11%. Standards collapse to Shadow+Poltergeist
(>=99% win).
underforge Helmed Horror SW 1 -> 3. Three-way elite pool drops
Fire Elemental's share from ~44% to ~33%.
feywild Green Hag promoted to elite SW=2 (was standard SW=4).
Adds soft 3rd elite + removes a 16hp/win standard.
Standards become Redcap+Will-o-Wisp+Quickling.
underdark Drow SW 7 -> 5 (light trim per the user's "lift
trailers, don't nerf leaders" stance). Standards
shift toward Hook Horror / Drow Mage.
Phase 1 matrix after Phase 5-C (200 trials, Fighter @ centerline):
T1 88.5% spread 1.0 (in band 70-90)
T2 74.5% spread 15.0 (in band 62-82)
T3 56.7% spread 0.5 (in band 55-75) +13.5pp
T4 77.0% spread 13.0 (over band 45-65, matches 5-B target;
spread halved from 25.5)
T5 58.0% spread 40.0 (abyss_portal 38% is the residual)
T3 mean lifted +13.5pp; both zones inside band with 0.5pp residual
spread. T4 spread halved (25.5 -> 13.0pp) by lifting feywild
+11.5pp and trimming underdark -4.5pp. T1/T2/T5 untouched.
No test debt -- no production tests pin SpawnWeight or IsElite on
the changed entries (TestMonsterKillTags_GatesKnownMonsters checks
vampire_spawn tags only, unaffected). -short suite green.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
prosolis
@@ -1417,6 +1417,204 @@ func zoneSeedSalt(id ZoneID) uint64 {
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return s
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}
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// TestExpeditionBalance_Phase5C_OutlierDiagnostic is the per-zone
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// trace pass for Phase 5-C — the second roster-polish round. Phase
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// 5-B's shipped baseline (HP×1.5, +3 player floor, e=23, d=1, burn=50)
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// landed T1/T2/T4/T5 at or above band, but left T3 at 43% mean
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// (manor 39 / underforge 47 vs band 55-75) and produced a 30pp
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// T4 spread (feywild 59 vs underdark 88) with feywild trailing.
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//
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// This test re-runs the Phase 4-A trace on the four affected zones
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// (manor + underforge as both-trail, feywild as lift-target, underdark
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// as healthy reference / candidate for one mild elite demotion). Same
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// monster-attribution, day-of-end, and elite/std-mix aggregates as
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// Phase 4-A; the difference is the candidate zone set and that all
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// four are reported side-by-side rather than as outlier+sibling pairs.
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//
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// Constraint per the plan doc and Phase 4-B's commit: do not touch
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// monster stat blocks. Tools allowed are IsElite toggle, SpawnWeight
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// rebalance, and zone-scoped boss tuning.
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//
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// Diagnostic-only — no gates. -short skips.
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func TestExpeditionBalance_Phase5C_OutlierDiagnostic(t *testing.T) {
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if testing.Short() {
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t.Skip("phase 5-C diagnostic walks 4 zones × 200 trials; -short skips it")
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}
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const trialsPerZone = 200
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const baseSeed uint64 = 0xF50C5D
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// Phase 5-B shipped cell. HP×1.5 and the +3 combat floor are
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// already wired into the harness via the live constants
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// (phase5BHPMult, applyPhase5BPlayerFloor); only the three
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// expedition-side overrides need restating.
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const eliteThreshold = 23
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const driftBase = 1
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const supplyBurnPct = 50
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zones := []struct {
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id ZoneID
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tier ZoneTier
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role string
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}{
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{ZoneManorBlackspire, ZoneTierJourneyman, "TRAIL-T3"},
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{ZoneUnderforge, ZoneTierJourneyman, "TRAIL-T3"},
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{ZoneFeywildCrossing, ZoneTierVeteran, "TRAIL-T4"},
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{ZoneUnderdark, ZoneTierVeteran, "HEALTHY-T4"},
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}
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type monsterStat struct {
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appearances int
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standardCount int
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eliteCount int
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wins int
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hpLossOnWin int
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killAttributed int
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}
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type zoneAgg struct {
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profile expeditionBalanceProfile
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completions int
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deaths int
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starves int
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monsters map[string]*monsterStat
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dayHist [16]int
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eliteFights int
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stdFights int
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lastFight harnessFightTrace
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}
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report := func(label string, agg *zoneAgg) {
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total := trialsPerZone
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compPct := float64(agg.completions) / float64(total) * 100
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deathPct := float64(agg.deaths) / float64(total) * 100
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starvePct := float64(agg.starves) / float64(total) * 100
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t.Logf("─── %-11s %-18s L%-2d comp=%5.1f%% death=%5.1f%% starve=%5.1f%% elite_fights=%d std_fights=%d ───",
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label, agg.profile.ZoneID,
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agg.profile.Level,
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compPct, deathPct, starvePct,
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agg.eliteFights, agg.stdFights)
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names := make([]string, 0, len(agg.monsters))
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for n := range agg.monsters {
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names = append(names, n)
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}
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sort.Slice(names, func(i, j int) bool {
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return agg.monsters[names[i]].appearances > agg.monsters[names[j]].appearances
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})
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for _, n := range names {
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m := agg.monsters[n]
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winPct := 0.0
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if m.appearances > 0 {
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winPct = float64(m.wins) / float64(m.appearances) * 100
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}
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avgLoss := 0.0
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if m.wins > 0 {
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avgLoss = float64(m.hpLossOnWin) / float64(m.wins)
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}
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t.Logf(" MON %-22s appear=%4d (std=%-3d elite=%-3d) win=%5.1f%% avg_hp_loss_on_win=%5.1f kills=%d",
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n, m.appearances, m.standardCount, m.eliteCount,
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winPct, avgLoss, m.killAttributed)
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}
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bins := make([]string, 0, 14)
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for d := 1; d <= 14; d++ {
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if agg.dayHist[d] > 0 {
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bins = append(bins, fmt.Sprintf("d%d=%d", d, agg.dayHist[d]))
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}
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}
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t.Logf(" END-DAYS %s", joinZones(bins))
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}
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for _, z := range zones {
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level := phase1TierCenterline[z.tier]
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t.Logf("═══ %-11s %s (L%d Fighter, e=%d d=%d burn=%d, %d trials) ═══",
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z.role, z.id, level,
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eliteThreshold, driftBase, supplyBurnPct, trialsPerZone)
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profile := expeditionBalanceProfile{
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ZoneID: z.id,
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Class: ClassFighter,
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Level: level,
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Supplies: makeSupplies(z.tier, SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 3}),
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CampType: CampTypeStandard,
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EliteInterruptThresholdOverride: eliteThreshold,
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ThreatDriftBaseOverride: driftBase,
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SupplyBurnRatePctOverride: supplyBurnPct,
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}
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agg := &zoneAgg{
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profile: profile,
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monsters: map[string]*monsterStat{},
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}
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for trial := 0; trial < trialsPerZone; trial++ {
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exp := newHarnessExpedition(profile)
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char := buildHarnessCharacter(classBalanceProfile{
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Class: profile.Class,
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Level: profile.Level,
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})
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h := &expeditionHarness{
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exp: exp,
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char: char,
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rng: newHarnessRNG(baseSeed + uint64(trial) + uint64(z.tier)*131 + zoneSeedSalt(z.id)),
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rollsPerDay: harnessHarvestRollsPerDay,
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eliteInterruptThresholdOverride: eliteThreshold,
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threatDriftBaseOverride: driftBase,
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supplyBurnRatePctOverride: supplyBurnPct,
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traceFightStruct: func(ft harnessFightTrace) {
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m, ok := agg.monsters[ft.MonsterName]
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if !ok {
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m = &monsterStat{}
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agg.monsters[ft.MonsterName] = m
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}
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m.appearances++
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if ft.Elite {
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m.eliteCount++
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agg.eliteFights++
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} else {
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m.standardCount++
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agg.stdFights++
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}
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if ft.Won {
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m.wins++
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loss := ft.HPPre - ft.HPPost
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if loss < 0 {
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loss = 0
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}
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m.hpLossOnWin += loss
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}
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agg.lastFight = ft
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},
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}
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var trialEnd expeditionTrialResult
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for {
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res := h.advanceExpeditionOneDay()
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if res.EndedReason != "" {
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trialEnd = res
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break
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}
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}
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switch {
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case trialEnd.Completed:
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agg.completions++
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case trialEnd.Died:
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agg.deaths++
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if m, ok := agg.monsters[agg.lastFight.MonsterName]; ok && !agg.lastFight.Won {
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m.killAttributed++
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}
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case trialEnd.StarvedOut:
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agg.starves++
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}
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d := trialEnd.DaysElapsed
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if d < 1 {
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d = 1
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}
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if d > 14 {
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d = 14
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}
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agg.dayHist[d]++
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}
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report(z.role, agg)
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}
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}
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// joinZones is a tiny helper kept local to the test file so the
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// per-tier log line reads in one logical chunk without pulling in
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// strings.Join's import for production code.
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