Phase 3b (sweep): nick-floor + supply-burn sweep, T5 supply unlock

Wired SurpriseNickFloorOverride and SupplyBurnRatePctOverride into the
harness day-loop via two new parameterized helpers (surpriseRoundNickF,
applyDailyBurnP). Live callers go through the existing constants;
sweep test sits on top of the Phase 3-A best cell (e=23, d=1).

TestExpeditionBalance_Phase3B_NickSupplySweep walks 3×3 (floor ∈ {0, 1,
tier=live}) × (burn% ∈ {50, 75, 100=live}) × 10 zones × 200 trials.

Strong partial T5 positive; nick-floor lever inert.

  - Supply burn is the T5 unlock: dragons_lair 0% → ~55% at burn=50.
    Fighter survives elites; burn=75 isn't enough margin.
  - T4 peaks at burn=75 (~12% underdark/feywild); burn=50 dips T4
    slightly (more elites survived into).
  - Nick-floor inert across tiers (≤3pp swing); wounded-clamp already
    eats the chip-damage budget. Recommend dropping from live-tuning
    candidates.
  - T2-T3 wall persists: forest_shadows, manor_blackspire,
    abyss_portal stuck at ~0% across every combo — outliers, not
    addressable by global levers.

Global levers wrung out. Plan-doc Phase 3-B section + memory pointers
updated; next is Phase 4 (per-zone outlier pass). -short shows the
same two pre-existing failures (TestAdv2Scenario_ZoneRunGoblinWarrens,
TestMageSpellbookLineInRender).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md

@@ -253,6 +253,61 @@ density) or supply margin.
 on top of e=23/d=1 to push T1-T3 toward target band and lift T4-T5
 off the floor.
 
+#### Phase 3-B — nick-floor + supply-burn sweep (shipped)
+
+Wired two more harness overrides (`SurpriseNickFloorOverride`,
+`SupplyBurnRatePctOverride`) and swept a 3×3 grid (floor ∈ {0, 1, tier
+(=live)} × burn% ∈ {50, 75, 100 (=live)}) on top of the Phase 3-A best
+cell (e=23, d=1). Test: `TestExpeditionBalance_Phase3B_NickSupplySweep`.
+
+**Strong partial positive for T5 supply margin; nick-floor lever inert.**
+
+Tier-mean completion (Fighter, centerline level, 10 zones × 200 trials):
+
+| (floor, burn%) | T1 mean | T2  | T3  | T4   | T5   |
+|----------------|--------:|----:|----:|-----:|-----:|
+| 0,    50       | 20.8%   | 5.0%| 3.8%| 7.5% | 29.5%|
+| 0,    75       | 26.5%   | 6.0%| 2.8%| 9.0% | 0.0% |
+| 0,   100       | 25.8%   | 5.0%| 3.0%| 0.0% | 0.0% |
+| 1,    50       | 25.5%   | 6.5%| 1.8%| 8.5% | 27.8%|
+| 1,    75       | 28.5%   | 6.2%| 4.0%|11.5% | 0.0% |
+| 1,   100       | 26.8%   | 7.5%| 2.5%| 0.0% | 0.0% |
+| tier, 50       | 26.8%   | 6.2%| 2.5%| 7.8% | 27.5%|
+| tier, 75 (live floor) | **29.5%** | **7.8%** | 3.0% | **12.8%** | 0.0% |
+| tier,100 (live)| 28.5%   | 6.8%| 3.0%| 0.0% | 0.0% |
+
+Three readings:
+
+1. **Supply burn is the T5 unlock.** dragons_lair completes ~55% at
+   burn=50 (versus 0% at burn=75/100) — the fighter survives elites
+   but starves en route. burn=75 isn't enough margin; burn=50
+   converts the starvation-out into a completion.
+2. **Supply burn is the T4 modulator.** underdark/feywild step from
+   0% (burn=100) → 12% (burn=75) → 8% (burn=50). The burn=75 peak is
+   the sweet spot; halving further leaves the fighter alive *into*
+   more elite fights, where it dies in combat instead.
+3. **Nick-floor lever is inert.** Across all burn levels, dropping
+   the surprise-round floor from `tier` → `1` → `0` moves T1-T3
+   means by at most ~3pp. The wounded-clamp (Phase 2b,
+   `clampSurpriseNick`) already eats the chip-damage budget on
+   repeat entries; the raw floor only matters on the first fresh-HP
+   swing, which the engine recovers from. **Recommendation: discard
+   this lever from the live-tuning candidate list.**
+
+**T2-T3 wall persists.** Even at the best (floor=tier, burn=75) cell:
+T2 reads 7.8% (target 62-82%) and T3 reads 3.0% (target 54-74%).
+forest_shadows T2, manor_blackspire T3, and abyss_portal T5 sit at
+~0% across every combo — these are zone-specific outliers, not
+addressable by any global lever. **Phase 4 (per-zone outlier pass)
+is the next move.**
+
+**Next:** Phase 4 walks the matrix zone-by-zone. The shipped Phase 3
+sweep already names the worst offenders (forest_shadows T2,
+manor_blackspire T3, abyss_portal T5, crypt_valdris T1); each needs a
+diagnostic trace (boss stat-block, roster mix, supply DC) to pick the
+right per-zone tool from `Phase 4`'s list. Optional: revisit shipping
+the burn=75 global if Phase 4 outlier fixes leave T4 still stuck.
+
 ### Phase 4 — per-zone outlier pass
 
 After globals settle, the matrix will name outlier zones — tiers

internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_combat.go

@@ -203,11 +203,24 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) runHarvestInterrupt(
 // surpriseRoundNick computes a small HP nick representing the enemy's
 // free first swing. Roughly attack-bonus + 1d4, with a tier-based floor.
 func surpriseRoundNick(m DnDMonsterTemplate, tier int) int {
+	return surpriseRoundNickF(m, tier, -1)
+}
+
+// surpriseRoundNickF is the floor-parameterized form used by the Phase
+// 3-B sim harness lever sweep. floorOverride < 0 means "use live"
+// (floor = tier); floorOverride >= 0 substitutes that absolute value
+// as the floor (0 disables the floor entirely). Live callers always go
+// through surpriseRoundNick. See gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md
+// Phase 3-B.
+func surpriseRoundNickF(m DnDMonsterTemplate, tier, floorOverride int) int {
 	if tier < 1 {
 		tier = 1
 	}
 	dmg := 1 + rand.IntN(4) + m.AttackBonus/2
 	floor := tier
+	if floorOverride >= 0 {
+		floor = floorOverride
+	}
 	if dmg < floor {
 		dmg = floor
 	}

internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_supplies.go

@@ -164,6 +164,15 @@ func makeSupplies(tier ZoneTier, p SupplyPurchase) ExpeditionSupplies {
 //     where HarshMod is 1×) — the dungeon is actively starving you out.
 //   - otherwise, harshActive applies HarshMod (zone-tier scaled).
 func applyDailyBurn(s ExpeditionSupplies, harshActive, siege bool) (ExpeditionSupplies, float32) {
+	return applyDailyBurnP(s, harshActive, siege, 0)
+}
+
+// applyDailyBurnP is the rate-parameterized form used by the Phase 3-B
+// sim harness lever sweep. burnRatePct == 0 means "use live" (100%);
+// any positive value scales the final per-day burn by that percent
+// (e.g. 50 = half burn). Live callers always go through applyDailyBurn.
+// See gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md Phase 3-B.
+func applyDailyBurnP(s ExpeditionSupplies, harshActive, siege bool, burnRatePct int) (ExpeditionSupplies, float32) {
 	burn := s.DailyBurn
 	switch {
 	case siege:
@@ -179,6 +188,9 @@ func applyDailyBurn(s ExpeditionSupplies, harshActive, siege bool) (ExpeditionSu
 		}
 		burn *= mult
 	}
+	if burnRatePct > 0 {
+		burn = burn * float32(burnRatePct) / 100
+	}
 	s.Current -= burn
 	if s.Current < 0 {
 		s.Current = 0

internal/plugin/expedition_balance.go

@@ -121,6 +121,26 @@ type expeditionBalanceProfile struct {
 	// TestExpeditionBalance_Phase3_GlobalLeverSweep.
 	EliteInterruptThresholdOverride int
 	ThreatDriftBaseOverride         int
+
+	// Phase 3-B global-lever overrides. Zero means "use live":
+	//
+	//   SurpriseNickFloorOverride — absolute floor for the raw
+	//   surprise-round nick. Live floor is the zone tier (1..5).
+	//   Convention: 0 (the zero value) = "use live tier floor"; a
+	//   positive value sets the floor directly; -1 disables the floor
+	//   entirely (floor = 0). Lower floor = less per-fight chip damage
+	//   on fresh entries.
+	//
+	//   SupplyBurnRatePctOverride — percent multiplier on the per-day
+	//   supply burn. Zero means "use live" (100%); 50 = half burn.
+	//   Lower = more supply margin for T4/T5 where starvation is the
+	//   dominant failure mode post-Phase-3-A.
+	//
+	// Both wired into the harness day loop only; live callers go
+	// through the shipped helpers. See
+	// TestExpeditionBalance_Phase3B_NickSupplySweep.
+	SurpriseNickFloorOverride int
+	SupplyBurnRatePctOverride int
 }
 
 // expeditionTrialResult is the outcome of one simulated expedition.
@@ -248,9 +268,11 @@ func (h *expeditionHarness) advanceExpeditionOneDay() expeditionTrialResult {
 		}
 	}
 
-	// 1. Morning rollover — supply burn + day++.
+	// 1. Morning rollover — supply burn + day++. Phase 3-B sweep can
+	// scale the per-day burn via the harness profile; live callers go
+	// through applyDailyBurn at 100%.
 	harsh := h.exp.ThreatLevel > 60
-	newSupplies, _ := applyDailyBurn(h.exp.Supplies, harsh, h.exp.SiegeMode)
+	newSupplies, _ := applyDailyBurnP(h.exp.Supplies, harsh, h.exp.SiegeMode, h.supplyBurnRatePctOverride)
 	h.exp.Supplies = newSupplies
 	h.exp.CurrentDay++
 
@@ -394,6 +416,22 @@ func (h *expeditionHarness) resolvedNickDivisor() int {
 	return liveSurpriseNickDivisor
 }
 
+// resolvedNickFloor translates the harness profile's surprise-nick
+// floor override into the int contract surpriseRoundNickF expects
+// (<0 = use live tier-floor, >=0 = absolute floor value). The profile
+// uses 0 for "use live" so the struct's zero-value is the safe
+// default; -1 in the profile means "disable floor" (floor = 0).
+func (h *expeditionHarness) resolvedNickFloor() int {
+	switch {
+	case h.surpriseNickFloorOverride == 0:
+		return -1
+	case h.surpriseNickFloorOverride < 0:
+		return 0
+	default:
+		return h.surpriseNickFloorOverride
+	}
+}
+
 // terminate stamps the final trial result with shared bookkeeping
 // (days elapsed, threat at end, encounter count, HP%).
 func (h *expeditionHarness) terminate(reason string, completed, died, starved bool) expeditionTrialResult {
@@ -438,7 +476,7 @@ func (h *expeditionHarness) runHarnessFight(zone ZoneDefinition, elite bool) Com
 	// spiral. Mirror live exactly so the harness measures the same
 	// lever the live caller applies.
 	nick := clampSurpriseNickD(
-		surpriseRoundNick(monster, int(zone.Tier)),
+		surpriseRoundNickF(monster, int(zone.Tier), h.resolvedNickFloor()),
 		h.char.HPCurrent, h.char.HPMax,
 		h.resolvedNickDivisor(),
 	)
@@ -560,6 +598,10 @@ type expeditionHarness struct {
 	// (eliteInterruptThreshold=19, threatDriftBase=3).
 	eliteInterruptThresholdOverride int
 	threatDriftBaseOverride         int
+	// Phase 3-B levers. See expeditionBalanceProfile field doc; both
+	// zero-sentinel for "use live".
+	surpriseNickFloorOverride int
+	supplyBurnRatePctOverride int
 	// traceFight, if non-nil, is invoked once per fight inside
 	// runHarnessFight with a human-readable summary. Used by the
 	// Phase 2 lethality probe to spot whether the nick, the picked
@@ -612,6 +654,8 @@ func runExpeditionBalanceTrial(p expeditionBalanceProfile, seed uint64) expediti
 		surpriseNickDivisorOverride: p.SurpriseNickDivisorOverride,
 		eliteInterruptThresholdOverride: p.EliteInterruptThresholdOverride,
 		threatDriftBaseOverride:         p.ThreatDriftBaseOverride,
+		surpriseNickFloorOverride:       p.SurpriseNickFloorOverride,
+		supplyBurnRatePctOverride:       p.SupplyBurnRatePctOverride,
 	}
 	for {
 		res := h.advanceExpeditionOneDay()

internal/plugin/expedition_balance_test.go

@@ -720,6 +720,141 @@ func TestExpeditionBalance_Phase3_GlobalLeverSweep(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+// TestExpeditionBalance_Phase3B_NickSupplySweep is the second
+// global-tuning sweep from gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md. Phase 3-A
+// surfaced the elite-bracket threshold as the dominant T1–T3 lever
+// (e=23/d=1 lifted T1 from 3% → 24%) but exposed a tail-side
+// fingerprint shift: T4/T5 dragons_lair death dropped 60% → 24% while
+// starvation climbed to 75% — the fighter now survives elites long
+// enough to run out of food. Phase 3-A picked the best cell but it
+// still leaves every tier well below target band (T1 70-90%, T2
+// 62-82%, …, T5 ~40%).
+//
+// Phase 3-B holds the Phase 3-A best cell (eliteInterruptThreshold=23,
+// threatDriftBase=1) and walks two more global knobs:
+//
+//   surpriseNickFloor (live=tier, i.e. 1..5 by zone tier) — the raw
+//   surprise-round nick on a fresh-HP entry. Lower floor = less
+//   per-fight chip on T4/T5 standard fights, where the live tier=4-5
+//   floor is the biggest single contributor to the wear-down curve
+//   that funnels survivors into starvation. Sweep {-1 (disable, =0),
+//   1 (flat), 0-sentinel (live tier)}.
+//
+//   supplyBurnRatePct (live=100, %) — daily supply burn scalar. Lower
+//   = more days of margin. T4 and T5 burns are 3×/4× the T1 baseline;
+//   halving them ought to convert the starvation outs we saw in
+//   Phase 3-A into actual completions if survivability is the only
+//   remaining blocker, or leave them dying in combat if it isn't.
+//   Sweep {100 (live), 75, 50}.
+//
+// 3×3 = 9 combos × 10 zones × 200 trials/cell, all on top of the
+// Phase 3-A best cell. Diagnostic-only — no gates beyond Phase 1
+// wiring sanity. -short skips.
+func TestExpeditionBalance_Phase3B_NickSupplySweep(t *testing.T) {
+	if testing.Short() {
+		t.Skip("phase 3-B nick/supply sweep is heavy; -short skips it")
+	}
+
+	const trialsPerCell = 200
+	const baseSeed uint64 = 0xB1C5E2
+	// Phase 3-A best cell — held constant across this sweep.
+	const eliteThreshold = 23
+	const driftBase = 1
+
+	nickFloors := []int{-1, 1, 0} // -1 disables floor; 1 flat-1; 0 = use live tier
+	burnPcts := []int{50, 75, 100}
+
+	t.Logf("phase3-B nick/supply sweep — %d zones × %d nick-floors × %d burn-pcts × %d trials, Fighter @ tier centerline (rolls=4); base e=%d d=%d",
+		len(zoneOrder), len(nickFloors), len(burnPcts), trialsPerCell, eliteThreshold, driftBase)
+
+	type tierStat struct {
+		cells int
+		sumC  float64
+		lo    float64
+		hi    float64
+	}
+
+	nickLabel := func(f int) string {
+		switch {
+		case f == 0:
+			return "tier"
+		case f < 0:
+			return "0"
+		default:
+			return fmt.Sprintf("%d", f)
+		}
+	}
+
+	for _, floor := range nickFloors {
+		for _, burn := range burnPcts {
+			tierStats := map[ZoneTier]*tierStat{}
+			t.Logf("─── surpriseNickFloor=%s  supplyBurnPct=%d ───", nickLabel(floor), burn)
+			for i, id := range zoneOrder {
+				zone, ok := getZone(id)
+				if !ok {
+					t.Fatalf("zoneOrder[%d]=%q not in registry", i, id)
+				}
+				level, ok := phase1TierCenterline[zone.Tier]
+				if !ok {
+					t.Fatalf("zone %q has tier %d with no phase1 centerline mapping", id, zone.Tier)
+				}
+				profile := expeditionBalanceProfile{
+					ZoneID:                          id,
+					Class:                           ClassFighter,
+					Level:                           level,
+					Supplies:                        makeSupplies(zone.Tier, SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 3}),
+					CampType:                        CampTypeStandard,
+					EliteInterruptThresholdOverride: eliteThreshold,
+					ThreatDriftBaseOverride:         driftBase,
+					SurpriseNickFloorOverride:       floor,
+					SupplyBurnRatePctOverride:       burn,
+				}
+				seed := baseSeed + uint64(i)*1_000_003 +
+					uint64(floor+2)*1009 + uint64(burn)*7919
+				r := runExpeditionBalanceCell(profile, trialsPerCell, seed)
+
+				c := r.CompletionRate() * 100
+				t.Logf("CELL  f=%-4s b=%-3d  %-18s T%d  L%-2d  comp=%5.1f%% death=%5.1f%% starve=%5.1f%% med_days=%2d med_threat=%3d encs=%4.1f hp_left=%5.1f%%",
+					nickLabel(floor), burn, zone.ID, zone.Tier, r.Profile.Level,
+					c,
+					r.DeathRate()*100,
+					float64(r.StarvedOuts)/float64(r.Trials)*100,
+					r.MedianDays, r.MedianThreatEnd,
+					r.AvgEncounters, r.AvgHPRemainingPct*100,
+				)
+
+				ts, ok := tierStats[zone.Tier]
+				if !ok {
+					ts = &tierStat{lo: math.Inf(1), hi: math.Inf(-1)}
+					tierStats[zone.Tier] = ts
+				}
+				ts.cells++
+				ts.sumC += c
+				if c < ts.lo {
+					ts.lo = c
+				}
+				if c > ts.hi {
+					ts.hi = c
+				}
+			}
+
+			tiers := []ZoneTier{
+				ZoneTierBeginner, ZoneTierApprentice, ZoneTierJourneyman,
+				ZoneTierVeteran, ZoneTierLegendary,
+			}
+			for _, tier := range tiers {
+				ts := tierStats[tier]
+				if ts == nil || ts.cells == 0 {
+					continue
+				}
+				mean := ts.sumC / float64(ts.cells)
+				t.Logf("TIER  f=%-4s b=%-3d  T%d  n=%d  mean_comp=%5.1f%%  spread=%5.1f pp",
+					nickLabel(floor), burn, tier, ts.cells, mean, ts.hi-ts.lo)
+			}
+		}
+	}
+}
+
 // joinZones is a tiny helper kept local to the test file so the
 // per-tier log line reads in one logical chunk without pulling in
 // strings.Join's import for production code.