J3 D8-f #2: T4 difficulty lift (leaders-define-band) + feywild fork1 soft-lock fix

T4 monster tuning so martial leaders land in the 60-75% band (underdark
59/80, feywild 65/84 at L10/L12, n=50); casters trail (class-side gap that
monster tuning provably can't compress -- Pass 1 showed casters pinned at 0%
while martials moved). T5 deferred (walls everyone at its L12 floor; needs an
L15-16 corpus).

- dnd_bestiary.go: underdark elite/boss HP+AC up + caster-lethal proc cuts
  (mind_flayer/drow_mage/roper); feywild HP+AC up.
- bestiary_srd.go: feywild multiattack profiles (fomorian/night_hag/green_hag)
  + Thornmother 2->3 lashes -- HP/AC alone didn't move feywild's low-damage
  roster; multiattack is what pulls facerolling martials into band.
- zone_graph_feywild_crossing.go: free fork1's marsh edge. fork1 was the only
  fork in the game with every exit skill-locked (CHA+Perception, no LockNone)
  and deterministic no-retry rolls -- a prod SOFT-LOCK stranding ~60% of
  players (low CHA+WIS). Kept grove's CHA bargain as a bonus route.
- expedition_sim.go: firstUnlockedForkChoice -- sim fork policy picks the
  first unlocked option instead of blind 'go 1' (which looped forever on
  locked forks); halts fork_all_locked if none.
- tests: graph-wide TestZoneGraphs_NoSoftLockedFork + fork1 free-path guard.

Writeup: sim_results/d8f_findings.md

internal/plugin/bestiary_srd.go

@@ -83,9 +83,10 @@ var srdProfiles = map[string]SRDProfile{
 		{Name: "Scourge", AttackBonus: 9, Damage: 13},
 		{Name: "Scourge", AttackBonus: 9, Damage: 12},
 	}},
-	"boss_thornmother": {Attacks: []SRDAttack{ // Attack 18 → ~23
+	"boss_thornmother": {Attacks: []SRDAttack{ // D8-f #2: 2→3 lashes, ~23→~36 (faceroll → band)
-		{Name: "Thorned Lash", AttackBonus: 8, Damage: 12},
+		{Name: "Thorned Lash", AttackBonus: 9, Damage: 13},
-		{Name: "Thorned Lash", AttackBonus: 8, Damage: 11},
+		{Name: "Thorned Lash", AttackBonus: 9, Damage: 12},
+		{Name: "Thorned Lash", AttackBonus: 9, Damage: 11},
 	}},
 	"boss_infernax": {Attacks: []SRDAttack{ // Attack 38 → ~49
 		{Name: "Bite", AttackBonus: 11, Damage: 19},
@@ -169,6 +170,24 @@ var srdProfiles = map[string]SRDProfile{
 		{Name: "Unarmed Strike", AttackBonus: 6, Damage: 6},
 		{Name: "Bite", AttackBonus: 6, Damage: 4},
 	}},
+
+	// ── Feywild elites (D8-f #2) ─────────────────────────────────────────
+	// Feywild martials facerolled at 97–100% even after an HP/AC raise: the
+	// roster was single-attack and low-damage, so tankier monsters just took
+	// longer to kill. Multiattack is the lever that actually pulls leaders
+	// into band (mirrors underdark's drow_elite). Casters trail (by design).
+	"fomorian": {Attacks: []SRDAttack{ // Attack 13 → ~21 (2 big fists)
+		{Name: "Greatclub", AttackBonus: 9, Damage: 11},
+		{Name: "Greatclub", AttackBonus: 9, Damage: 10},
+	}},
+	"night_hag": {Attacks: []SRDAttack{ // Attack 8 → ~12 (claw flurry)
+		{Name: "Claws", AttackBonus: 7, Damage: 6},
+		{Name: "Claws", AttackBonus: 7, Damage: 6},
+	}},
+	"green_hag": {Attacks: []SRDAttack{ // Attack 6 → ~10 (claw flurry)
+		{Name: "Claws", AttackBonus: 6, Damage: 5},
+		{Name: "Claws", AttackBonus: 6, Damage: 5},
+	}},
 }
 
 // enemyAttackProfile returns the attack rolls a creature makes on its turn.

internal/plugin/dnd_bestiary.go

@@ -256,7 +256,7 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"green_hag": {
 			ID: "green_hag", Name: "Green Hag",
-			CR: 3, HP: 82, AC: 17, Attack: 6, AttackBonus: 5, Speed: 12,
+			CR: 3, HP: 105, AC: 18, Attack: 6, AttackBonus: 5, Speed: 12,
 			BlockRate: 0.15,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Invisible Passage", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.35, Effect: "evade"},
 			XPValue:   700,
@@ -463,7 +463,7 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"drow_elite_warrior": {
 			ID: "drow_elite_warrior", Name: "Drow Elite Warrior",
-			CR: 5, HP: 71, AC: 18, Attack: 8, AttackBonus: 7, Speed: 12,
+			CR: 5, HP: 95, AC: 19, Attack: 8, AttackBonus: 7, Speed: 12,
 			BlockRate: 0.20,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Parry", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.35, Effect: "block"},
 			XPValue:   1800,
@@ -471,23 +471,23 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"drow_mage": {
 			ID: "drow_mage", Name: "Drow Mage",
-			CR: 7, HP: 45, AC: 12, Attack: 12, AttackBonus: 5, Speed: 12,
+			CR: 7, HP: 65, AC: 12, Attack: 12, AttackBonus: 5, Speed: 12,
 			BlockRate: 0.05,
-			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Lightning Bolt", Phase: "decisive", ProcChance: 0.45, Effect: "aoe"},
+			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Lightning Bolt", Phase: "decisive", ProcChance: 0.25, Effect: "aoe"},
 			XPValue:   2900,
 			Notes:     "Spells: Lightning Bolt, Fly, Darkness, Faerie Fire. Magic Resistance.",
 		},
 		"mind_flayer": {
 			ID: "mind_flayer", Name: "Mind Flayer",
-			CR: 7, HP: 71, AC: 15, Attack: 12, AttackBonus: 7, Speed: 12,
+			CR: 7, HP: 90, AC: 15, Attack: 12, AttackBonus: 7, Speed: 12,
 			BlockRate: 0.10,
-			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Mind Blast", Phase: "opening", ProcChance: 0.55, Effect: "stun"},
+			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Mind Blast", Phase: "opening", ProcChance: 0.30, Effect: "stun"},
 			XPValue:   2900,
 			Notes:     "Mind Blast AoE psychic INT DC 15 or Stunned; Extract Brain instakills stunned; telepathy.",
 		},
 		"hook_horror": {
 			ID: "hook_horror", Name: "Hook Horror",
-			CR: 3, HP: 75, AC: 15, Attack: 6, AttackBonus: 6, Speed: 10,
+			CR: 3, HP: 95, AC: 16, Attack: 6, AttackBonus: 6, Speed: 10,
 			BlockRate: 0.10,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Pack Tactics", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.30, Effect: "advantage"},
 			XPValue:   700,
@@ -495,15 +495,15 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"roper": {
 			ID: "roper", Name: "Roper",
-			CR: 5, HP: 93, AC: 20, Attack: 8, AttackBonus: 7, Speed: 4,
+			CR: 5, HP: 115, AC: 20, Attack: 8, AttackBonus: 7, Speed: 4,
 			BlockRate: 0.20,
-			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Reel", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.50, Effect: "stun"},
+			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Reel", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.30, Effect: "stun"},
 			XPValue:   1800,
 			Notes:     "Elite. 6 tendrils grapple+restrain; Reel pulls 25 ft; False Appearance.",
 		},
 		"boss_ilvaras_xunyl": {
 			ID: "boss_ilvaras_xunyl", Name: "Ilvaras Xunyl, Drow High Priestess",
-			CR: 12, HP: 162, AC: 16, Attack: 19, AttackBonus: 9, Speed: 12,
+			CR: 12, HP: 210, AC: 18, Attack: 19, AttackBonus: 9, Speed: 12,
 			BlockRate: 0.15,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Divine Word", Phase: "decisive", ProcChance: 0.40, Effect: "execute"},
 			XPValue:   8400,
@@ -512,7 +512,7 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		// ── Feywild Crossing ─────────────────────────────────────────────
 		"redcap": {
 			ID: "redcap", Name: "Redcap",
-			CR: 3, HP: 45, AC: 13, Attack: 6, AttackBonus: 6, Speed: 14,
+			CR: 3, HP: 60, AC: 15, Attack: 6, AttackBonus: 6, Speed: 14,
 			BlockRate: 0.10,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Outsize Strength", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.40, Effect: "bonus_damage"},
 			XPValue:   700,
@@ -520,7 +520,7 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"will_o_wisp": {
 			ID: "will_o_wisp", Name: "Will-o'-Wisp",
-			CR: 2, HP: 22, AC: 19, Attack: 4, AttackBonus: 4, Speed: 14,
+			CR: 2, HP: 30, AC: 19, Attack: 4, AttackBonus: 4, Speed: 14,
 			BlockRate: 0.0,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Consume Life", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.40, Effect: "lifesteal"},
 			XPValue:   450,
@@ -528,7 +528,7 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"quickling": {
 			ID: "quickling", Name: "Quickling",
-			CR: 1, HP: 10, AC: 16, Attack: 2, AttackBonus: 5, Speed: 18,
+			CR: 1, HP: 16, AC: 16, Attack: 2, AttackBonus: 5, Speed: 18,
 			BlockRate: 0.05,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Blur", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.50, Effect: "evade"},
 			XPValue:   200,
@@ -536,7 +536,7 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"night_hag": {
 			ID: "night_hag", Name: "Night Hag",
-			CR: 5, HP: 112, AC: 17, Attack: 8, AttackBonus: 7, Speed: 12,
+			CR: 5, HP: 135, AC: 18, Attack: 8, AttackBonus: 7, Speed: 12,
 			BlockRate: 0.15,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Etherealness", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.30, Effect: "evade"},
 			XPValue:   1800,
@@ -544,7 +544,7 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"fomorian": {
 			ID: "fomorian", Name: "Fomorian",
-			CR: 8, HP: 149, AC: 14, Attack: 13, AttackBonus: 9, Speed: 12,
+			CR: 8, HP: 180, AC: 16, Attack: 13, AttackBonus: 9, Speed: 12,
 			BlockRate: 0.10,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Evil Eye", Phase: "any", ProcChance: 0.45, Effect: "stun"},
 			XPValue:   3900,
@@ -552,7 +552,7 @@ var _ = func() bool {
 		},
 		"boss_thornmother": {
 			ID: "boss_thornmother", Name: "The Thornmother",
-			CR: 11, HP: 187, AC: 17, Attack: 18, AttackBonus: 8, Speed: 12,
+			CR: 11, HP: 235, AC: 18, Attack: 18, AttackBonus: 8, Speed: 12,
 			BlockRate: 0.15,
 			Ability:   &MonsterAbility{Name: "Beguiling Bargain", Phase: "opening", ProcChance: 0.50, Effect: "stun"},
 			XPValue:   7200,

internal/plugin/expedition_sim.go

@@ -506,9 +506,22 @@ func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap, maxDays
 			// Boss kill closes the run via combat resolution → continue
 			// the loop so the next walk picks up the cleared-run state.
 		case stopFork:
-			// Deterministic sim policy: always take path 1. Real players
+			// Deterministic sim policy: take the first UNLOCKED path. The
-			// pick based on intent; the sim just needs to make progress.
+			// old blind "go 1" stalled forever on all-skill-check forks
-			if err := s.P.handleDnDExpeditionCmd(ctx, "go 1"); err != nil {
+			// (feywild fork1) — resolveForkChoice rejects a locked edge but
+			// zoneCmdGo swallows it as a sent-DM with a nil return, so the
+			// run never advanced and burned every walk at the same node. A
+			// real player reads the menu and picks a passable path; mirror
+			// that. choice==0 means every edge is locked (a graph soft-lock
+			// the author must fix) — halt loudly rather than spin.
+			choice := s.firstUnlockedForkChoice(ctx.Sender)
+			if choice == 0 {
+				res.Outcome = "halted"
+				res.StopCode = "fork_all_locked"
+				i = walkCap
+				break
+			}
+			if err := s.P.handleDnDExpeditionCmd(ctx, fmt.Sprintf("go %d", choice)); err != nil {
 				res.Outcome = "halted"
 				res.StopCode = "fork:" + err.Error()
 				i = walkCap
@@ -626,6 +639,26 @@ func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap, maxDays
 	return res, nil
 }
 
+// firstUnlockedForkChoice returns the 1-based index of the first
+// traversable option at the pending fork, or 0 if every edge is locked
+// (a graph soft-lock — see feywild fork1, which had no LockNone exit).
+func (s *SimRunner) firstUnlockedForkChoice(uid id.UserID) int {
+	run, err := getActiveZoneRun(uid)
+	if err != nil || run == nil {
+		return 1
+	}
+	pf, err := decodePendingFork(run.NodeChoices)
+	if err != nil || pf == nil {
+		return 1
+	}
+	for _, o := range pf.Options {
+		if o.Unlocked {
+			return o.Index
+		}
+	}
+	return 0
+}
+
 // captureDaySnapshot appends a SimDaySnapshot reflecting current state.
 // HP is read from the live character row; SU/threat/day from the live
 // expedition. Rooms is the running res.Rooms counter.

internal/plugin/zone_graph_feywild_crossing.go

@@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ package plugin
 //     cursed_thicket (TRAP) → revel_road → moonshadow_bridge →
 //     bargain_walk → fey_market → fork1
 //
-//   Fork1 → both options locked (CHA vs Perception, no free choice):
+//   Fork1 → marsh (free default) | grove (CHA DC 14 bonus — the bargain):
 //
-//   Grove approach (8 nodes, CHA DC 14):
+//   Grove approach (8 nodes, CHA DC 14 bonus):
 //     grove_threshold → starlight_path → singing_orchard → mirror_pond
 //     → prismatic_arbor → moonpetal_clearing → dawnglow_walk →
 //     glamoured_grove (fork2a)
@@ -203,13 +203,19 @@ func zoneFeywildCrossingGraph() ZoneGraph {
 		{From: "feywild_crossing.bargain_walk", To: "feywild_crossing.fey_market", Lock: LockNone},
 		{From: "feywild_crossing.fey_market", To: "feywild_crossing.fork1", Lock: LockNone},
 
-		// Fork1 — both options locked (CHA vs. Perception, no LockNone).
+		// Fork1 — marsh is the free default path; grove is a CHA-gated
+		// bonus route (the fey bargain). (Both were skill-locked originally,
+		// with no LockNone exit — a soft-lock: any character failing both
+		// the CHA and Perception checks was permanently stranded here, since
+		// fork rolls are deterministic with no retry. Every other zone fork
+		// has a free path; freeing marsh restores that invariant while
+		// keeping the signature CHA fey-bargain route as a bonus.)
 		{From: "feywild_crossing.fork1", To: "feywild_crossing.grove_threshold",
 			Lock: LockStatCheck, LockData: map[string]any{"stat": "CHA", "dc": 14},
 			Hint: "a starlight creature offering a deal — you'd have to play along", Weight: 1},
 		{From: "feywild_crossing.fork1", To: "feywild_crossing.marsh_threshold",
-			Lock: LockPerception, LockData: map[string]any{"dc": 14},
+			Lock: LockNone,
-			Hint: "wisp-light flickering between two trees — they look like the same tree", Weight: 1},
+			Hint: "wisp-light flickering between two trees — pick your way through", Weight: 1},
 
 		// Grove approach.
 		{From: "feywild_crossing.grove_threshold", To: "feywild_crossing.starlight_path", Lock: LockNone},

internal/plugin/zone_graph_feywild_crossing_test.go

@@ -55,16 +55,23 @@ func TestFeywildCrossingGraph_PartialOverlap(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
-// TestFeywildCrossingGraph_NoFreeChoiceAtFork1 captures the design
+// TestFeywildCrossingGraph_Fork1HasFreePath guards the no-soft-lock
-// intent: both fork1 outgoing edges are locked. The player must succeed
+// invariant: fork1 must offer at least one LockNone exit. The original
-// at CHA or Perception to enter; no LockNone fallback.
+// design locked BOTH edges (CHA + Perception) with no fallback — fork
-func TestFeywildCrossingGraph_NoFreeChoiceAtFork1(t *testing.T) {
+// rolls are deterministic with no retry, so a character failing both was
+// permanently stranded (D8-f part 2 found this stranded ~60% of runs).
+// Every other zone fork has a free path; fork1 must too.
+func TestFeywildCrossingGraph_Fork1HasFreePath(t *testing.T) {
 	g := zoneFeywildCrossingGraph()
+	free := 0
 	for _, e := range g.outgoingEdges("feywild_crossing.fork1") {
-		if e.Lock == LockNone {
+		if e.Lock == LockNone || e.Lock == "" {
-			t.Errorf("fork1 has unlocked edge to %s — expected all locked", e.To)
+			free++
 		}
 	}
+	if free == 0 {
+		t.Error("fork1 has no free (LockNone) exit — soft-lock: a player failing every skill check is permanently stranded")
+	}
 }
 
 // TestFeywildCrossingGraph_FirstCHALock confirms this zone uses

internal/plugin/zone_graph_test.go

@@ -190,6 +190,40 @@ func TestCompileLegacyZoneGraph_AllRegistered(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+// TestZoneGraphs_NoSoftLockedFork guards the invariant that every fork
+// node offers at least one traversable (LockNone) exit. A fork whose
+// every edge is skill-locked strands any player who fails all the checks
+// — fork rolls are deterministic with no retry. D8-f part 2 found
+// feywild fork1 violating this (it stranded ~60% of runs). Catch any
+// future author who locks every exit of a fork.
+func TestZoneGraphs_NoSoftLockedFork(t *testing.T) {
+	for _, z := range allZones() {
+		g, ok := loadZoneGraph(z.ID)
+		if !ok {
+			continue
+		}
+		for nodeID, node := range g.Nodes {
+			if node.Kind != NodeKindFork {
+				continue
+			}
+			outs := g.outgoingEdges(nodeID)
+			if len(outs) == 0 {
+				continue
+			}
+			free := false
+			for _, e := range outs {
+				if e.Lock == LockNone || e.Lock == "" {
+					free = true
+					break
+				}
+			}
+			if !free {
+				t.Errorf("zone %q fork %q: every exit is locked — soft-lock (a player failing all checks is stranded; add a LockNone fallback)", z.ID, nodeID)
+			}
+		}
+	}
+}
+
 func TestDeriveLegacyNodeID_StableShape(t *testing.T) {
 	got := deriveLegacyNodeID("crypt_valdris", 0)
 	want := "crypt_valdris.r1"