J1: Extra Attack now fires in turn-based combat

The class-identity audit (98ba416) wired Extra Attack via the new
resolvePlayerSwings helper, but only SimulateCombat (auto-resolve)
called it. The turn-based engine — every !fight/!attack and every
elite/boss gate the sim drives via autoResolveCombat — still called
single-swing resolvePlayerAttack, so Fighter L11+ got 1 swing/turn at
the gates instead of 3. The audit close-out was correct in spirit but
half-applied.

J1 baseline matrix surfaced it: Fighter L12 cleared 100% of T2 forest
but 2% of T3 manor and 7% of T4 underdark, with %boss_reached at 100%
across the board. The wall was the boss-room damage exchange, not
mid-zone attrition. Trace dump on a sample fight: Fighter dealt 79
dmg in 14 rounds (7 hits / 9 swings) — exactly one swing per round —
versus 167 enemy dmg. With multi-swing wired in, the same fight ends
in 7 rounds with the boss dead, Fighter at 87/168 HP, 16 hits in 19
swings.

n=100 matrix after the fix:
  Fighter L12 manor:     2% → 100% clr
  Fighter L12 underdark: 7% → 98%  clr
  Fighter L12 forest:    94% → 100% (no leader regression)
Mage cells unchanged (J2 territory). Rogue cells within noise.

Sim infra changes that landed alongside (needed to read the J1
signal):

* expedition_sim auto-arms class-default defensive abilities
  (Second Wind / Healing Word) via the new simAutoArmEnabled toggle
  + trySimAutoArm helper, hooked before applyArmedAbility in both
  combat builders. Production code paths untouched (toggle stays
  off). Without this the sim simulated a player who never types
  !arm, which under-counts class survival.
* SimResult.Combats captures per-fight turn-log summaries (rounds,
  hits/misses, damage by side, AC values inferred from RollAgainst)
  so future J-phase questions can dig into the engine without
  re-running the matrix.
* sim_results/run_matrix.sh fans the matrix across (class,level,zone)
  cells via xargs -P (one process per cell — each owns its global
  sqlite handle). ~6× wall-clock speedup on a 14-core box; n=100
  matrix runs in ~3min.
* sim_results/summarize.sh gains p50_yld_clr + %boss_reached columns
  so future sweeps don't conflate "reaches boss" with "clears zone".

Baselines:
  sim_results/baseline_j0_n100.jsonl       — pre-fix (1350 rows)
  sim_results/baseline_j1_extra_attack.jsonl — post-fix (4500 rows)

Phase J state: J0 baseline locked, J1 done. T5 dragons_lair still
0% clear universally (J3). Mage T2+ wall still real (J2).

.gitignore

@@ -7,3 +7,4 @@ gogobee
 gensolver
 holdem-train
 /open5e-import
+/expedition-sim

internal/plugin/combat_bridge.go

@@ -86,6 +86,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) runDungeonCombat(
 	applyRacePassives(&playerStats, &playerMods, dndChar)
 	applySubclassPassives(&playerStats, &playerMods, dndChar)
 	applyMagicItemEffects(&playerStats, &playerMods, userID)
+	trySimAutoArm(dndChar)
 	if firedName, fired := applyArmedAbility(dndChar, &playerMods); fired {
 		slog.Info("dnd: armed ability fired", "user", userID, "ability", firedName)
 	}

internal/plugin/combat_session_build.go

@@ -64,6 +64,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) buildZoneCombatants(
 	applyRacePassives(&playerStats, &playerMods, dndChar)
 	applySubclassPassives(&playerStats, &playerMods, dndChar)
 	applyMagicItemEffects(&playerStats, &playerMods, userID)
+	trySimAutoArm(dndChar)
 	if firedName, fired := applyArmedAbility(dndChar, &playerMods); fired {
 		slog.Info("dnd: armed ability fired (turn-based build)", "user", userID, "ability", firedName)
 	}

internal/plugin/combat_turn_engine.go

@@ -197,10 +197,18 @@ func (te *turnEngine) stepPlayerTurn(action PlayerAction) {
 		te.stepPlayerActionEffect(action.Effect)
 		return
 	}
-	// Default: weapon attack. resolvePlayerAttack returns true once the fight
-	// is decided — usually the enemy is down, but a retaliate aura can drop the
-	// player on their own swing, so disambiguate the outcome by HP.
-	if resolvePlayerAttack(te.st, te.player, te.enemy, &turnCombatPhase, te.result) {
+	// Default: weapon attack. resolvePlayerSwings rolls the base swing plus
+	// Mods.ExtraAttacks follow-ups (5e Extra Attack at Fighter L5/L11/L20,
+	// Ranger/Paladin L5, Bard College of Valor L7). One !attack press in the
+	// turn-based engine == one 5e Attack action == all swings in sequence.
+	// Before this, the turn path called single-swing resolvePlayerAttack and
+	// Extra Attack only fired in the auto-resolve SimulateCombat path; that
+	// left every elite/boss !fight at L11+ short two swings/turn, which the
+	// J1 boss-trace surfaced as Fighter's T3+ wall.
+	// Returns true once the fight is decided — usually the enemy is down,
+	// but a retaliate aura can drop the player on their own swing, so
+	// disambiguate the outcome by HP.
+	if resolvePlayerSwings(te.st, te.player, te.enemy, &turnCombatPhase, te.result) {
 		if te.st.playerHP <= 0 {
 			te.finish(CombatStatusLost)
 		} else {

internal/plugin/dnd_abilities.go

@@ -357,6 +357,59 @@ func displayAbility(id string) string {
 
 // ── Combat hook ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
+// simAutoArmEnabled, when true, lets the combat builders pre-arm a
+// class-default ability for any character entering combat with an empty
+// ArmedAbility slot. The expedition-sim flips this on so synthetic
+// players model a competent real player (who would `!arm` Second Wind
+// before each fight) instead of a player who never touches the
+// !arm command. Untouched in production code paths.
+var simAutoArmEnabled = false
+
+// simAutoArmDefaultFor returns the class-default ability id the sim
+// should pre-arm. Defensive heals (Second Wind, Healing Word) only —
+// burning a Mage's spell slot every fight would mask J2, not help it.
+func simAutoArmDefaultFor(class DnDClass) string {
+	switch class {
+	case ClassFighter:
+		return "second_wind"
+	case ClassCleric:
+		return "healing_word"
+	}
+	return ""
+}
+
+// trySimAutoArm pre-arms the class-default ability if the global toggle
+// is on, no ability is currently armed, and the resource pool has at
+// least one charge. Mirrors handleDnDArmCmd's spend-and-save flow.
+// Returns the ability name (or "" when nothing was armed).
+func trySimAutoArm(c *DnDCharacter) string {
+	if !simAutoArmEnabled || c == nil || c.ArmedAbility != "" {
+		return ""
+	}
+	id := simAutoArmDefaultFor(c.Class)
+	if id == "" {
+		return ""
+	}
+	ab, ok := dndActiveAbilities[id]
+	if !ok {
+		return ""
+	}
+	cur, _, err := getResource(c.UserID, ab.Resource)
+	if err != nil || cur < 1 {
+		return ""
+	}
+	c.ArmedAbility = ab.ID
+	if err := SaveDnDCharacter(c); err != nil {
+		return ""
+	}
+	if ok, _ := spendResource(c.UserID, ab.Resource, 1); !ok {
+		c.ArmedAbility = ""
+		_ = SaveDnDCharacter(c)
+		return ""
+	}
+	return ab.Name
+}
+
 // applyArmedAbility checks for a pre-armed ability on the character and
 // applies its effect to the player's CombatModifiers, then clears the armed
 // flag. Called from combat_bridge.go before SimulateCombat.

internal/plugin/expedition_sim.go

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ package plugin
 // real-time waits.
 
 import (
+	"encoding/json"
 	"fmt"
 	"time"
 
@@ -35,6 +36,11 @@ func NewSimRunner(dataDir string) (*SimRunner, error) {
 	if err := db.Init(dataDir); err != nil {
 		return nil, fmt.Errorf("db init: %w", err)
 	}
+	// Synthetic players don't type !arm between fights; flip on the
+	// in-combat auto-arm so Fighter Second Wind, Cleric Healing Word,
+	// etc. fire the way a competent prod player would set them up.
+	// Without this the sim under-counts class survival.
+	simAutoArmEnabled = true
 	euro := &EuroPlugin{}
 	p := &AdventurePlugin{euro: euro}
 	return &SimRunner{P: p, Euro: euro}, nil
@@ -74,6 +80,12 @@ func (s *SimRunner) BuildCharacter(uid id.UserID, class DnDClass, level int) (*D
 	if err := SaveDnDCharacter(c); err != nil {
 		return nil, fmt.Errorf("SaveDnDCharacter: %w", err)
 	}
+	// Class resource pool (stamina/favor/focus/spell_slot). !setup writes
+	// this for prod players; the sim has to do it explicitly so Second
+	// Wind / Healing Word / etc. have a pool to draw from.
+	if err := initResources(uid, class); err != nil {
+		return nil, fmt.Errorf("initResources: %w", err)
+	}
 	if pool := slotsForClassLevel(class, level); len(pool) > 0 {
 		if err := setSpellSlotsForLevel(uid, class, level); err != nil {
 			return nil, fmt.Errorf("setSpellSlotsForLevel: %w", err)
@@ -231,9 +243,39 @@ type SimResult struct {
 	// adventure_inventory at end-of-run.
 	YieldCount    int
 	YieldsByName  map[string]int
+	// Combats holds a per-combat trace for every fight the synthetic
+	// player entered during the expedition (boss + elites + patrols).
+	// Used by post-hoc analysis to dig into class-survival walls
+	// without re-running the matrix. Populated from combat_sessions
+	// rows + their TurnLog at end-of-run.
+	Combats []SimCombatSummary
 	Log     []SimLogEntry
 }
 
+// SimCombatSummary is a compact per-fight trace: the entry stats, the
+// per-round damage dealt by each side, and the outcome. Lets J-phase
+// analysis ask "did Fighter L12 hit the manor boss often enough?"
+// without re-running the matrix.
+type SimCombatSummary struct {
+	SessionID    string
+	EncounterID  string
+	EnemyID      string
+	Status       string // active/won/lost/fled/expired
+	Rounds       int
+	PlayerHPMax  int
+	PlayerHPEnd  int
+	EnemyHPMax   int
+	EnemyHPEnd   int
+	PlayerDamage int // total damage dealt by player across the fight
+	EnemyDamage  int // total damage dealt by enemy across the fight
+	PlayerHits   int // d20 rolls by player that landed (>= enemy AC)
+	PlayerMisses int
+	EnemyHits    int
+	EnemyMisses  int
+	PlayerAC     int // inferred from RollAgainst on enemy attack events
+	EnemyAC      int // inferred from RollAgainst on player attack events
+}
+
 // SimLogEntry is a JSONL-friendly projection of one dnd_expedition_log
 // row. We expose just the fields a post-hoc analyzer needs without
 // pulling the full ExpeditionEntry type.
@@ -379,9 +421,77 @@ func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap int) (*S
 		}
 	}
 	res.YieldCount, res.YieldsByName = simMaterialYields(uid)
+	res.Combats = simCombatSummaries(uid)
 	return res, nil
 }
 
+// simCombatSummaries pulls every combat_sessions row for uid and folds
+// its TurnLog into a SimCombatSummary. AC values are inferred from the
+// RollAgainst column on attack events (the engine writes the defender's
+// AC there). Rows are ordered by started_at so the boss fight is last.
+func simCombatSummaries(uid id.UserID) []SimCombatSummary {
+	rows, err := db.Get().Query(`
+		SELECT session_id, encounter_id, enemy_id, status, round,
+		       player_hp, player_hp_max, enemy_hp, enemy_hp_max,
+		       turn_log_json
+		  FROM combat_session
+		 WHERE user_id = ?
+		 ORDER BY started_at ASC`, string(uid))
+	if err != nil {
+		return nil
+	}
+	defer rows.Close()
+	var out []SimCombatSummary
+	for rows.Next() {
+		var s SimCombatSummary
+		var turnLogJSON string
+		if err := rows.Scan(
+			&s.SessionID, &s.EncounterID, &s.EnemyID, &s.Status, &s.Rounds,
+			&s.PlayerHPEnd, &s.PlayerHPMax, &s.EnemyHPEnd, &s.EnemyHPMax,
+			&turnLogJSON); err != nil {
+			continue
+		}
+		var events []CombatEvent
+		if turnLogJSON != "" {
+			_ = json.Unmarshal([]byte(turnLogJSON), &events)
+		}
+		for _, ev := range events {
+			switch ev.Actor {
+			case "player":
+				if ev.Roll > 0 {
+					if ev.Damage > 0 {
+						s.PlayerHits++
+					} else {
+						s.PlayerMisses++
+					}
+					if ev.RollAgainst > s.EnemyAC {
+						s.EnemyAC = ev.RollAgainst
+					}
+				}
+				if ev.Damage > 0 {
+					s.PlayerDamage += ev.Damage
+				}
+			case "enemy":
+				if ev.Roll > 0 {
+					if ev.Damage > 0 {
+						s.EnemyHits++
+					} else {
+						s.EnemyMisses++
+					}
+					if ev.RollAgainst > s.PlayerAC {
+						s.PlayerAC = ev.RollAgainst
+					}
+				}
+				if ev.Damage > 0 {
+					s.EnemyDamage += ev.Damage
+				}
+			}
+		}
+		out = append(out, s)
+	}
+	return out
+}
+
 // simMaterialYields tallies the material rows the synthetic player
 // banked in adventure_inventory. One row per +1, so the count is the
 // raw resource-unit total. Map breakdown is keyed by resource name.

sim_results/run_matrix.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# Parallel driver for cmd/expedition-sim matrix sweeps.
+#
+# Spawns one expedition-sim process per (class, level, zone) cell, so each
+# worker owns its own global sqlite handle (NewSimRunner closes+reinits the
+# package-level db.Get() — workers in the same process would clobber each
+# other). All worker stdouts are concatenated into a single JSONL.
+#
+# Usage:
+#   run_matrix.sh OUTFILE RUNS CLASSES LEVELS ZONES [PARALLEL]
+#
+# Example (1350 rows, 14-way parallel):
+#   run_matrix.sh baseline_j0.jsonl 30 \
+#     fighter,mage,rogue 3,7,12 \
+#     goblin_warrens,forest_shadows,manor_blackspire,underdark,dragons_lair
+set -euo pipefail
+
+outfile=${1:?outfile required}
+runs=${2:?runs required}
+classes=${3:?classes required}
+levels=${4:?levels required}
+zones=${5:?zones required}
+parallel=${6:-$(nproc)}
+
+repo=$(cd "$(dirname "$0")/.." && pwd)
+bin=$repo/expedition-sim
+[[ -x "$bin" ]] || { echo "missing $bin — run 'go build ./cmd/expedition-sim' first" >&2; exit 1; }
+
+cd "$repo/sim_results"
+tmpdir=$(mktemp -d -t simrun-XXXXXX)
+trap 'rm -rf "$tmpdir"' EXIT
+
+errfile=${outfile%.jsonl}.err
+: > "$outfile"
+: > "$errfile"
+
+# Enumerate cells one per line: "class level zone".
+cells=$tmpdir/cells.txt
+IFS=, read -ra cls <<< "$classes"
+IFS=, read -ra lvs <<< "$levels"
+IFS=, read -ra zns <<< "$zones"
+for c in "${cls[@]}"; do
+  for l in "${lvs[@]}"; do
+    for z in "${zns[@]}"; do
+      printf "%s\t%s\t%s\n" "$c" "$l" "$z"
+    done
+  done
+done > "$cells"
+
+ncells=$(wc -l < "$cells")
+echo "matrix: $ncells cells × $runs runs = $((ncells * runs)) rows, $parallel workers" >&2
+
+# Fan out: one process per cell. Per-cell stdout goes to its own shard,
+# stderr is collected to the shared errfile.
+worker() {
+  local class=$1 level=$2 zone=$3
+  local shard=$tmpdir/$class-$level-$zone.jsonl
+  "$bin" -matrix \
+    -classes "$class" -levels "$level" -zones "$zone" \
+    -runs "$runs" \
+    > "$shard" 2>> "$errfile"
+}
+export -f worker
+export bin tmpdir runs errfile
+
+xargs -P "$parallel" -L 1 -a "$cells" bash -c 'worker "$@"' _
+
+# Stitch shards in deterministic order (zone, class, level — matches
+# summarize.sh's sort_by) so diff-friendliness survives parallel arrival.
+for c in "${cls[@]}"; do
+  for l in "${lvs[@]}"; do
+    for z in "${zns[@]}"; do
+      shard=$tmpdir/$c-$l-$z.jsonl
+      [[ -f "$shard" ]] && cat "$shard" >> "$outfile"
+    done
+  done
+done
+
+rows=$(wc -l < "$outfile")
+echo "wrote $rows rows → $outfile (errors in $errfile)" >&2

sim_results/summarize.sh

@@ -1,12 +1,19 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env bash
-# Aggregate h4_baseline.jsonl into a per-(class,level,zone) table.
-# Columns: class, level, zone, n, p50 yield, mean yield, mean rooms, %cleared, %tpk, %fled, %extracted.
+# Aggregate a sim corpus JSONL into a per-(class,level,zone) table.
+# Columns: class, level, zone, n, p50 yield (all), p50 yield among cleared,
+# mean yield, mean rooms, %cleared, %boss-reached, %tpk, %fled, %extracted.
+#
+# boss-reached counts runs whose StopCode is "boss" or "complete" — i.e.,
+# the autopilot entered the boss room, whether the run died there or
+# finished the zone.
 set -euo pipefail
 
-infile=${1:-h4_baseline.jsonl}
+infile=${1:-baseline_j0.jsonl}
 cd "$(dirname "$0")"
 
 jq -rs '
+  def p50(xs): if (xs|length)==0 then 0 else (xs|sort|.[(length/2|floor)]) end;
+
   group_by([.Class, .Level, .Zone])
   | map({
       class:    .[0].Class,
@@ -14,24 +21,30 @@ jq -rs '
       zone:     .[0].Zone,
       n:        length,
       yields:   [.[] | .YieldCount],
+      yields_cleared: [.[] | select(.Outcome=="cleared") | .YieldCount],
       rooms:    [.[] | .Rooms],
-      outcomes: [.[] | .Outcome]
+      outcomes: [.[] | .Outcome],
+      stops:    [.[] | .StopCode]
     })
   | map(. + {
-      p50_yield:  (.yields | sort | .[(length/2|floor)]),
-      mean_yield: ((.yields | add) / length),
-      mean_rooms: ((.rooms  | add) / length),
+      p50_yield:         p50(.yields),
+      p50_yield_cleared: p50(.yields_cleared),
+      mean_yield:        ((.yields | add) / .n),
+      mean_rooms:        ((.rooms  | add) / .n),
       pct_cleared:       (([.outcomes[] | select(. == "cleared")]   | length) * 100 / .n),
+      pct_boss_reached:  (([.stops[]    | select(. == "boss" or . == "complete")] | length) * 100 / .n),
       pct_tpk:           (([.outcomes[] | select(. == "tpk")]       | length) * 100 / .n),
       pct_fled:          (([.outcomes[] | select(. == "fled")]      | length) * 100 / .n),
       pct_extracted:     (([.outcomes[] | select(. == "extracted")] | length) * 100 / .n)
     })
   | sort_by(.zone, .class, .level)
-  | (["class","level","zone","n","p50_yld","mean_yld","mean_rms","%clr","%tpk","%fled","%ext"] | @tsv),
-    (.[] | [.class, .level, .zone, .n, .p50_yield,
+  | (["class","level","zone","n","p50_yld","p50_yld_clr","mean_yld","mean_rms","%clr","%boss","%tpk","%fled","%ext"] | @tsv),
+    (.[] | [.class, .level, .zone, .n,
+            .p50_yield, .p50_yield_cleared,
             (.mean_yield * 10 | round / 10),
             (.mean_rooms * 10 | round / 10),
             (.pct_cleared      | round),
+            (.pct_boss_reached | round),
             (.pct_tpk          | round),
             (.pct_fled         | round),
             (.pct_extracted    | round)] | @tsv)