Death source tracking + combat threat/jitter fixes

- Adventure characters now record DeathSource ("adventure"|"arena") and
  DeathLocation when killed. Threaded through Kill() and transitionDeath.
  Daily report uses the recorded death location instead of misattributing
  arena deaths to the day's adventure log: when DeathSource != "adventure",
  the adventure block shows the alive icon and a separate "Later fell in
  {location}." line. Standout-loss flavor uses DeathLocation. Empty
  DeathSource (legacy rows) falls back to current behavior.
- calcDamage applies a ±15% per-hit jitter, so successive hits in a phase
  no longer produce identical numbers. Previously every hit in a phase was
  flat (e.g. 17, 17, 17, 17) and mirror-symmetric between player/enemy,
  reading as scripted.
- assessThreat rewritten to use the engine's actual penetration formula:
  damage-per-round each direction, then rounds-to-kill ratio. The old
  additive HP+Attack*3 model ignored Defense, so even fights could be
  rated trivial — players died after consumables were skipped with the
  "threat assessed as manageable" message.
- SelectConsumables never skips on trivial when arenaRound > 0. Arena
  losses cost real money and equipment, so the cost of a wrong assessment
  is too high to gamble on; adventure-side fights still skip trivial
  threats to avoid wasting items on chump enemies.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

internal/db/db.go

@@ -142,6 +142,8 @@ func runMigrations(d *sql.DB) error {
 		`ALTER TABLE coop_dungeon_gifts ADD COLUMN applied_at DATETIME`,
 		`ALTER TABLE coop_dungeon_gifts ADD COLUMN stack_lead_id INTEGER`,
 		`ALTER TABLE adventure_characters ADD COLUMN crafts_succeeded INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0`,
+		`ALTER TABLE adventure_characters ADD COLUMN death_source TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT ''`,
+		`ALTER TABLE adventure_characters ADD COLUMN death_location TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT ''`,
 	}
 	for _, stmt := range columnMigrations {
 		if _, err := d.Exec(stmt); err != nil {

internal/plugin/adventure.go

@@ -875,6 +875,8 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) resolveActivity(ctx MessageContext, char *AdventureCha
 			Equip:          equip,
 			ChatLevel:      p.chatLevel(char.UserID),
 			Location:       loc.Name,
+			Source:         "adventure",
+			DeathLocation:  loc.Name,
 			AllowPardon:    true,
 			AllowSovereign: true,
 			EngineSaved:    engineDeathSaved,

internal/plugin/adventure_arena.go

@@ -414,7 +414,11 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) resolveArenaDeath(ctx MessageContext, run *ArenaRun, c
 
 	phaseMessages := RenderCombatLogArena(result, char.DisplayName, monster.Name)
 
-	dt := transitionDeath(DeathTransitionParams{Char: char})
+	dt := transitionDeath(DeathTransitionParams{
+		Char:          char,
+		Source:        "arena",
+		DeathLocation: "the Arena",
+	})
 
 	char.ArenaLosses++
 	char.CombatXP += arenaParticipationXP

internal/plugin/adventure_character.go

@@ -96,6 +96,8 @@ type AdventureCharacter struct {
 	AutoBabysit         bool
 	StreakDecayed        bool
 	CraftsSucceeded     int
+	DeathSource         string // "adventure" | "arena" | "" (legacy/unknown — treated as adventure)
+	DeathLocation       string // human-readable location of last death; cleared on revive is not required
 }
 
 type AdvEquipment struct {
@@ -249,12 +251,16 @@ func (c *AdventureCharacter) PardonAvailable() bool {
 	return time.Since(*c.LastPardonUsed) >= 168*time.Hour
 }
 
-// Kill marks the character as dead with a 6-hour respawn timer.
-func (c *AdventureCharacter) Kill() {
+// Kill marks the character as dead with a 6-hour respawn timer. source is
+// "adventure" or "arena"; location is a human-readable place name used by the
+// daily report and standout-loss flavor.
+func (c *AdventureCharacter) Kill(source, location string) {
 	c.Alive = false
 	deadUntil := time.Now().UTC().Add(6 * time.Hour)
 	c.DeadUntil = &deadUntil
 	c.LastDeathDate = time.Now().UTC().Format("2006-01-02")
+	c.DeathSource = source
+	c.DeathLocation = location
 }
 
 // HasPet returns true if the player has an active pet (not chased away).
@@ -446,7 +452,8 @@ func loadAdvCharacter(userID id.UserID) (*AdventureCharacter, error) {
 		       pet_chased_away, pet_reactivated, pet_arrived,
 		       misty_encounter_count, misty_donated_count,
 		       thom_animal_line_fired, pet_supply_shop_unlocked, pet_level10_date,
-		       pet_morning_defense, auto_babysit, streak_decayed, crafts_succeeded
+		       pet_morning_defense, auto_babysit, streak_decayed, crafts_succeeded,
+		       death_source, death_location
 		FROM adventure_characters WHERE user_id = ?`, string(userID)).Scan(
 		&c.UserID, &c.DisplayName,
 		&c.CombatLevel, &c.MiningSkill, &c.ForagingSkill, &c.FishingSkill,
@@ -472,6 +479,7 @@ func loadAdvCharacter(userID id.UserID) (*AdventureCharacter, error) {
 		&c.MistyEncounterCount, &c.MistyDonatedCount,
 		&thomAnimalLine, &petSupplyUnlocked, &c.PetLevel10Date,
 		&petMorningDef, &autoBabysit, &streakDecayed, &c.CraftsSucceeded,
+		&c.DeathSource, &c.DeathLocation,
 	)
 	if err != nil {
 		return nil, err
@@ -640,7 +648,9 @@ func saveAdvCharacter(char *AdventureCharacter) error {
 			pet_morning_defense = ?,
 			auto_babysit = ?,
 			streak_decayed = ?,
-			crafts_succeeded = ?
+			crafts_succeeded = ?,
+			death_source = ?,
+			death_location = ?
 		WHERE user_id = ?`,
 		char.DisplayName, char.CombatLevel, char.MiningSkill, char.ForagingSkill, char.FishingSkill,
 		char.CombatXP, char.MiningXP, char.ForagingXP, char.FishingXP,
@@ -667,6 +677,7 @@ func saveAdvCharacter(char *AdventureCharacter) error {
 		autoBabysit,
 		streakDecayed,
 		char.CraftsSucceeded,
+		char.DeathSource, char.DeathLocation,
 		string(char.UserID),
 	)
 	return err
@@ -797,7 +808,8 @@ func loadAllAdvCharacters() ([]AdventureCharacter, error) {
 		       pet_chased_away, pet_reactivated, pet_arrived,
 		       misty_encounter_count, misty_donated_count,
 		       thom_animal_line_fired, pet_supply_shop_unlocked, pet_level10_date,
-		       pet_morning_defense, auto_babysit, streak_decayed, crafts_succeeded
+		       pet_morning_defense, auto_babysit, streak_decayed, crafts_succeeded,
+		       death_source, death_location
 		FROM adventure_characters`)
 	if err != nil {
 		return nil, err
@@ -838,6 +850,7 @@ func loadAllAdvCharacters() ([]AdventureCharacter, error) {
 			&c.MistyEncounterCount, &c.MistyDonatedCount,
 			&thomAnimalLine, &petSupplyUnlocked, &c.PetLevel10Date,
 			&petMorningDef, &autoBabysit, &streakDecayed, &c.CraftsSucceeded,
+			&c.DeathSource, &c.DeathLocation,
 		); err != nil {
 			return nil, err
 		}

internal/plugin/adventure_consumables.go

@@ -86,17 +86,31 @@ const (
 	threatDangerous                      // > 1.0
 )
 
+// assessThreat estimates rounds-to-kill in both directions using the same
+// penetration model as the combat engine, then bands the threat by the ratio
+// of player-RTK to enemy-RTK. Old additive HP+Attack model ignored Defense and
+// rated even fights as "trivial" — players died after consumables were skipped.
 func assessThreat(player, enemy CombatStats) threatLevel {
-	playerPower := float64(player.MaxHP + player.Attack*3)
-	enemyPower := float64(enemy.MaxHP + enemy.Attack*3)
-	if playerPower == 0 {
+	const K = 40.0
+	dprPlayer := float64(player.Attack) * (K / (K + float64(enemy.Defense)))
+	dprEnemy := float64(enemy.Attack) * (K / (K + float64(player.Defense)))
+	if dprPlayer < 1 {
+		dprPlayer = 1
+	}
+	if dprEnemy < 1 {
+		dprEnemy = 1
+	}
+	rtkEnemy := float64(enemy.MaxHP) / dprPlayer  // rounds for player to kill enemy
+	rtkPlayer := float64(player.MaxHP) / dprEnemy // rounds for enemy to kill player
+	if rtkPlayer <= 0 {
 		return threatDangerous
 	}
-	ratio := enemyPower / playerPower
+	// ratio < 1: player wins the race (lower = more dominant). >1: enemy wins.
+	ratio := rtkEnemy / rtkPlayer
 	switch {
-	case ratio < 0.4:
+	case ratio < 0.35:
 		return threatTrivial
-	case ratio < 0.7:
+	case ratio < 0.65:
 		return threatEasy
 	case ratio < 1.0:
 		return threatCompetitive
@@ -111,7 +125,10 @@ func assessThreat(player, enemy CombatStats) threatLevel {
 // contentTier caps consumable tier to the content being fought (0 = no cap).
 func SelectConsumables(inventory []ConsumableItem, playerStats, enemyStats CombatStats, arenaRound int, contentTier int) []ConsumableItem {
 	threat := assessThreat(playerStats, enemyStats)
-	if threat == threatTrivial {
+	// Arena losses cost real money + equipment durability — never skip there,
+	// even if the threat looks trivial. Adventure-side fights still skip
+	// trivial threats to avoid wasting items on chump enemies.
+	if threat == threatTrivial && arenaRound == 0 {
 		return nil
 	}
 

internal/plugin/adventure_render.go

@@ -540,6 +540,8 @@ type AdvPlayerDaySummary struct {
 	IsResting      bool
 	SummaryLine    string
 	HolidayActions int // 0 = not holiday or no action; 1 = took one; 2 = took both
+	DeathSource    string
+	DeathLocation  string
 }
 
 func renderAdvDailySummary(date string, tb *TwinBeeResult, tbRewards TwinBeeRewardSummary, players []AdvPlayerDaySummary, holidayName string) string {
@@ -611,12 +613,29 @@ func renderAdvDailySummary(date string, tb *TwinBeeResult, tbRewards TwinBeeRewa
 		p := &players[i]
 		if p.IsDead {
 			dead = append(dead, *p)
-			// Dead players who acted today still show in the main section
+			// Dead players who acted today still show in the main section.
+			// If they died OUTSIDE the adventure (e.g. Arena), the adventure
+			// itself was successful — show the alive icon for that block and
+			// append a "later fell" note. Empty DeathSource is legacy and
+			// treated as adventure-death (current behavior).
 			if p.Location != "" {
-				sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("💀 **%s** — Combat Lv.%d | Mining Lv.%d | Forage Lv.%d | Fishing Lv.%d\n",
-					p.DisplayName, p.CombatLevel, p.MiningSkill, p.ForagingSkill, p.FishingSkill))
+				diedOnAdventure := p.DeathSource == "" || p.DeathSource == "adventure"
+				icon := "💀"
+				if !diedOnAdventure {
+					icon = "⚔️"
+				}
+				sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("%s **%s** — Combat Lv.%d | Mining Lv.%d | Forage Lv.%d | Fishing Lv.%d\n",
+					icon, p.DisplayName, p.CombatLevel, p.MiningSkill, p.ForagingSkill, p.FishingSkill))
 				sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("   Went to: %s\n", p.Location))
-				sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("   Outcome: %s\n\n", p.SummaryLine))
+				sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("   Outcome: %s\n", p.SummaryLine))
+				if !diedOnAdventure {
+					where := p.DeathLocation
+					if where == "" {
+						where = "elsewhere"
+					}
+					sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("   💀 Later fell in %s.\n", where))
+				}
+				sb.WriteString("\n")
 				if worstPlayer == nil {
 					worstPlayer = p
 				}
@@ -725,9 +744,13 @@ func renderAdvDailySummary(date string, tb *TwinBeeResult, tbRewards TwinBeeRewa
 		pool := SummaryStandoutDeath
 		if len(pool) > 0 {
 			line := pool[rand.IntN(len(pool))]
+			lossLoc := worstPlayer.DeathLocation
+			if lossLoc == "" {
+				lossLoc = worstPlayer.Location
+			}
 			line = advSubstituteFlavor(line, map[string]string{
 				"{name}":     worstPlayer.DisplayName,
-				"{location}": worstPlayer.Location,
+				"{location}": lossLoc,
 			})
 			sb.WriteString(fmt.Sprintf("🏆 **Today's standout:** %s\n", line))
 		}

internal/plugin/adventure_scheduler.go

@@ -233,6 +233,8 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) postDailySummary() {
 
 		if !c.Alive {
 			ps.IsDead = true
+			ps.DeathSource = c.DeathSource
+			ps.DeathLocation = c.DeathLocation
 			if c.DeadUntil != nil {
 				ps.DeadUntil = c.DeadUntil.Format("15:04") + " UTC"
 			}

internal/plugin/combat_bridge.go

@@ -323,6 +323,8 @@ type DeathTransitionParams struct {
 	Equip          map[EquipmentSlot]*AdvEquipment
 	ChatLevel      int
 	Location       string // set as GrudgeLocation; empty = don't set
+	Source         string // death source: "adventure" | "arena" — recorded on Kill()
+	DeathLocation  string // human-readable death location for the daily report; falls back to Location
 	AllowPardon    bool   // chat level pardon (adventure only)
 	AllowSovereign bool   // probability-band Sovereign reprieve (non-engine path)
 	EngineSaved    bool   // combat engine used Sovereign death save
@@ -371,7 +373,11 @@ func transitionDeath(p DeathTransitionParams) DeathTransitionResult {
 		return r
 	}
 
-	p.Char.Kill()
+	deathLoc := p.DeathLocation
+	if deathLoc == "" {
+		deathLoc = p.Location
+	}
+	p.Char.Kill(p.Source, deathLoc)
 	if p.Location != "" {
 		p.Char.GrudgeLocation = p.Location
 	}

internal/plugin/combat_engine.go

@@ -644,12 +644,17 @@ func applyAbility(st *combatState, player, enemy *Combatant, phase *CombatPhase,
 // reduction rather than flat subtraction, so damage is never fully negated.
 // Formula: rawAtk * reduction where reduction = K / (K + effectiveDef).
 // K=40 means 40 defense halves incoming damage; 80 defense reduces by 67%.
+//
+// A ±15% per-hit jitter is applied so successive hits in the same phase don't
+// produce identical numbers — the previous flat-damage output read as scripted.
 func calcDamage(attack int, atkWeight, dmgBonus float64, defense int, defWeight, dmgReduct float64) int {
 	const K = 40.0
 	rawAtk := float64(attack) * atkWeight * (1 + dmgBonus)
 	effectiveDef := float64(defense) * defWeight * dmgReduct
 	reduction := K / (K + effectiveDef)
 	dmg := rawAtk * reduction
+	jitter := 0.85 + rand.Float64()*0.30 // 0.85 .. 1.15
+	dmg *= jitter
 	if dmg < 1 {
 		return 1
 	}