Equalize co-op gift magnitudes to kill 'always leave' dominant strategy

Old values (open ±7, leave ±4) had matching EV but asymmetric variance;
risk-averse parties had a strict preference to always leave gifts, which
collapsed the dilemma. New values (all ±6) keep EV=0 for both strategies
AND equalize variance. Choice now depends entirely on inferring sender
intent.

Adds TestCoopGiftVarianceSymmetric — fails loud if anyone reintroduces
asymmetric magnitudes. EV test was already in place but only checked the
mean; missed this on first pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
prosolis
2026-04-26 19:12:22 -07:00
parent 1ca9e77fa0
commit a1ede53fa9
3 changed files with 40 additions and 15 deletions

View File

@@ -16,21 +16,21 @@ import (
// ── Gift Constants ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
//
// Modifiers chosen so the EV of "always open" vs "always leave" is symmetric
// at a 50/50 sender mix — the party has to read the context, not the math.
// Magnitudes equalized across all four outcomes so neither "always open" nor
// "always leave" is variance-dominant at a 50/50 sender mix. Asymmetric
// magnitudes (e.g., open=±7, leave=±4) gave leave the same EV with lower
// variance, making it a dominant strategy for risk-averse parties — which
// collapses the dilemma into "always leave."
//
// basket opened: +7 basket unopened: -4
// mimic opened: -7 mimic unopened: +4
// basket opened: +6 basket unopened: -6
// mimic opened: -6 mimic unopened: +6
//
// At 50/50 sender mix:
// always open EV = 0.5×(+7) + 0.5×(7) = 0
// always leave EV = 0.5×(4) + 0.5×(+4) = 0
// Both strategies: EV=0, σ=6. The choice becomes "read sender intent" only.
const (
coopGiftBasketOpened = 7
coopGiftBasketUnopened = -4
coopGiftMimicOpened = -7
coopGiftMimicUnopened = 4
coopGiftBasketOpened = 6
coopGiftBasketUnopened = -6
coopGiftMimicOpened = -6
coopGiftMimicUnopened = 6
)
const (