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J2: sim picker casts+consumes; T5 raid-content warning

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The post-J1 sweep had the casters clustered at 19–22% L12 clear, vs
martials at 70–80%. A per-round trace across 240 boss-room fights showed
why: autoResolveCombat dispatched !attack only — zero spell_casts, zero
mid-fight consumable uses across every caster class. The entire "caster
cliff" was the sim measuring a strawman where casters couldn't cast.

J2a teaches the sim's autoResolveCombat to mirror a competent prod
player: heal at low HP if an inventory consumable is available, otherwise
cast the highest-EV damage spell (slot or cantrip), otherwise swing.
BuildCharacter now seeds the known-spell list via ensureSpellsForCharacter
so the synthetic spellbook is populated. A -trace flag on the cmd
attaches the raw CombatEvent stream to the last combat of each run for
post-hoc diagnostics.

A first re-baseline (n=100, all 10 classes) showed Ranger regressed
-35.8pp — the picker was burning L3 slots on lightning_arrow when
Ranger's weapon chassis (Hunter's Mark + Extra Attack) was the better
play. Added simMartialFirstClass to gate the picker off for Ranger and
Paladin (whose default kit is also weapon-first / no damage spells).
J2c experimented with widening the picker to control + heal spells;
heal-spell preempt cost druid 10pp (slot heals are 10HP vs 40HP
consumables) and control-spell scoring at 22 cost warlock 6.6pp. Both
reverted. Corpora retained under baseline_j2c*.jsonl for the post-mortem
in sim_results/j2b_findings.md.

Post-J2 L12 leaderboard (baseline_j2a_v2_all10.jsonl, n=100):
  fighter 80.0, ranger 80.0, paladin 78.4, rogue 76.8,
  druid 61.6, mage 53.4, sorcerer 50.6, warlock 48.2,
  bard 40.4, cleric 39.0.

The caster cluster is dissolved; martials are within ±5pp of J1 (sweep
noise). Bard/cleric still trail, but it's no longer a sim artifact —
their defaultKnownSpells damage rosters cap at L2 and the picker can't
pick spells they don't have. That's a prod-level fix, deferred.

J3 trace (sim_results/j3_findings.md): T5 dragons_lair walls every solo
class at 0% (Infernax 546 HP vs solo player HP 110–175; ~25% boss HP
eaten before TPK across all classes). Per the J3 plan menu, this is
party-shaped content the engine doesn't yet have parties for. Surface
a TwinBee-voiced heads-up in handleDnDExpeditionCmd's start path and a
matching tag in !expedition list — players see "raid-shaped — solo
runs not yet survivable" before they spend outfitting coin. No combat
or class balance changes.

Files: cmd/expedition-sim/main.go +trace flag; expedition_sim.go picker
+ SimCombatSummary.Events + spellbook seed; dnd_expedition_cmd.go
raidContentWarning + list tag. All baselines + traces + findings
checked in under sim_results/.
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# J2 — Caster boss-survival traces (per-round event sweep)
**Date:** 2026-05-17
**Corpus:** `sim_results/j2_traces.jsonl` — 240 expeditions
**Cells:** {mage, cleric, sorcerer, warlock, bard, druid} × {manor_blackspire, underdark} × L12 × n=20
**Method:** New `-trace` flag on `cmd/expedition-sim` attaches the raw `CombatEvent` stream to the last combat (the boss/elite room) of every expedition. Aggregated in `/tmp/analyze_j2.py`.
## Headline
The caster cliff in `baseline_j1_all10.jsonl` is **not a class-balance problem. It is a sim-artifact**: `autoResolveCombat` dispatches `!attack` only — never `!cast`, never `!consume`. Across 240 boss-room fights:
| Event type | Count |
|-------------------------------|------:|
| `player` `spell_cast` | **0** |
| `player` `use_consumable` | **0** |
| `consumable` events | **0** |
| `player` `hit` (weapon swing) | 381 |
| `player` `thorn_lash` (druid passive) | 261 |
Every "caster boss-fight" the matrix has scored to date is a melee swing-fest with the caster's spell slots untouched and their consumables sitting in inventory.
## Class-level per-cell boss-fight rollup (L12)
| class | zone | n | reachBoss | won | lost | rnd | pDmg | eDmg | slotRuns | casts | noSlot | eHPleft |
|----------|------------------|----|-----------|-----|------|-----|------|------|----------|-------|--------|---------|
| mage | manor_blackspire | 20 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 7.4 | 27.4 | 89 | **0** | 0 | 10 | 116.6 |
| mage | underdark | 20 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 5.4 | 28.7 | 68.1 | **0** | 0 | 13 | 133.3 |
| cleric | manor_blackspire | 20 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7.6 | 28.1 | 101 | **0** | 0 | 7 | 115.9 |
| cleric | underdark | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 26 | **0** | 0 | 1 | 150 |
| sorcerer | manor_blackspire | 20 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 6.8 | 16.9 | 86.2 | **0** | 0 | 11 | 127.1 |
| sorcerer | underdark | 20 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6.5 | 26.8 | 79 | **0** | 0 | 6 | 135.2 |
| warlock | manor_blackspire | 20 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 8.8 | 29.9 | 108.4| **0** | 0 | 10 | 114.1 |
| warlock | underdark | 20 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 8.6 | 53.4 | 96.1 | **0** | 0 | 15 | 108.6 |
| bard | manor_blackspire | 20 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 9.1 | 29.9 | 103.8| **0** | 0 | 14 | 114.1 |
| bard | underdark | 20 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 7.8 | 46.9 | 76.5 | **0** | 0 | 10 | 115.1 |
| *druid* | manor_blackspire | 20 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 8.1 | 77.8 | 107.5| **0** | 0 | 15 | 66.2 |
| *druid* | underdark | 20 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 6.5 | 72.3 | 81.1 | **0** | 0 | 14 | 89.7 |
Columns: `slotRuns` = boss fights where ≥1 slot spell fired; `casts` = total slot casts; `noSlot` = boss fights with zero casts; `eHPleft` = mean enemy HP remaining at player-loss (the "how close did we come" number).
## Why druid is the lone outlier at 39% mean clear
Druid's `ThornLashDmg = 2 + level/4` passive (`dnd_passives.go:210`, Class-identity audit 2026-05-16) fires every time the enemy lands a hit on the player — 5 reactive damage at L12, ×~10–15 enemy hits per fight = 50–75 incidental player damage. That alone accounts for the ~70+ mean `pDmg` druid posts vs 17–53 for the trailers. **Druid is not "tankier than the trailers" — druid is the only class whose damage profile doesn't depend on the spell action**. Wild Shape, the actual durability beat the plan called out, is not wired through `autoResolveCombat` at all; thorn lash is.
## Reaction-spell hypothesis (plan §6.J2 H2) is moot for now
`dnd_spells.go` already documents that reaction-cast spells (`shield`, `counterspell`, `hellish_rebuke`) are explicitly skipped today — no reaction window in combat. So even if `autoResolveCombat` were upgraded, Shield-style auto-fires aren't a J2 lever until a reaction phase exists.
## Conclusion — J2 is hypothesis-3-shaped but the cause is upstream
The plan listed four hypotheses; the trace evidence speaks to them as follows:
1. ~~Damage falls off vs boss HP~~ — confounded: cantrip damage was never tested; player only swung weapons.
2. ~~No durability backstop~~ — Druid's outperformance is offense (thorn lash), not durability. So the durability gap, if it exists, can't be read from this corpus.
3. **Slot/resource economy** — slots aren't being spent in boss fights at all. Confirms casters reach boss "with slots intact" (the plan's optimistic read), but in the worst possible way: the sim refuses to spend them.
4. Cleric identity — `simAutoArmDefaultFor` does pre-arm Healing Word for Cleric (`dnd_abilities.go:375`), and that fires on the armed-ability path before combat. But mid-fight casts of Spiritual Weapon / Bless never fire.
## Recommended J2 lever (replaces the original menu)
**J2a — Teach `autoResolveCombat` to cast and consume.**
Before each `!attack`, the sim should mirror "what a competent prod player would do":
- If HP < ~40% MaxHP and a heal-tagged consumable is in inventory → dispatch `handleConsumeCmd` with that item.
- Else if the character is a spellcaster with available slots and a known damage/control spell that lands → dispatch `handleCastCmd` (priority: damage spell that finishes the enemy → control/stun → buff → cantrip).
- Else swing.
The picker can be small and class-blind for the first cut — pick the highest-level slot whose damage roll most efficiently reduces remaining enemy HP, fall back to a cantrip when slots are dry. Mirror `combat_bridge.go`'s `SelectConsumables` for the heal side.
**J2b — Re-run baseline matrix with the fixed `autoResolveCombat`.**
The current n=100 baseline measures a strawman. Once J2a lands we get a real read on caster boss-survival. Only then is it worth picking class-level levers (or concluding "casters are fine, the sim was lying").
**Out of J2 scope for now:** Reaction wiring (Shield, Counterspell). Per `dnd_spells.go`'s own comments, the reaction phase doesn't exist yet; lifting that ban is its own surface.
## Side note — `autoCombatRoundCap` vs the actual constant
Plan mentions `autoCombatRoundCap = 200`; verified in `expedition_sim.go:528`. No issue, just confirming the harness isn't truncating fights early.