- expedition-sim matrix worker now captures child stderr and dumps
runErr/stderr/stdout-snippet on failure so halted rows have a cause.
- simPickSpiritualWeapon walks slots 2..5 and upcasts when L2 is spent
instead of silently skipping the spell on high-level clerics.
- advanceOnceWithOpts !inlineBossCombat branch now emits the same
"Room X/Y — Boss/Elite. Type !fight to engage." line as foreground.
Adds inlineBossCombat alongside compact in runAutopilotWalk and
advanceOnceWithOpts. Production background autorun keeps both true
(inline auto-resolve), foreground stays both false (manual !fight), the
sim now uses compact=true + inlineBossCombat=false so the boss/elite
doorway returns stopBoss/stopElite after the safety gate — autoResolveCombat
+ simPickCombatAction / simPickSpell drive the fight via the turn-based
engine. The picker (and D8-b upcasting) has been dead since D3's
compact-inline boss rooms; this re-wires it.
n=50/cell L10 smoke vs d7d (zones T1-T3):
bard forest_shadows 61 → 100 (+39)
bard manor_blackspire 10 → 34 (+24)
cleric forest_shadows 15 → 96 (+81)
cleric manor_blackspire 0 → 54 (+54)
fighter T1-T3 100 (unchanged)
Also parallelizes matrix mode via subprocess workers (each child has its
own SQLite — db package globals preclude in-process parallelism). New
-jobs flag, defaults to runtime.NumCPU(). 8 workers gave ~7x speedup on
the smoke matrix.
simPickSpell now enumerates one candidate per available slot >= native
for every prepared damage spell, scored via spellExpectedDamage with the
existing "+1 die per slot" scaling. Cantrips contribute a single slot-0
candidate. Tie-break: highest slot first, then highest expDmg. Picker
returns "<id> --upcast N" when the winning slot exceeds native so
parseCombatCast upcasts in the engine. Build + plugin tests green.
Then: measured zero impact. d8b_corpus.jsonl (same 10x5x100 matrix as
d7d) lands every class within +/-1.5pp of d7d baseline.
Root cause discovered post-corpus: simPickSpell is dead code in the
current sim path. Commit 68ed8e7 ("Long expeditions D3: compact
autopilot auto-resolves boss rooms") added a !compact gate at
dnd_expedition_cmd.go:810 so compact autopilot inline-resolves boss/
elite rooms via resolveCombatRoom -> runZoneCombat -> SimulateCombat
instead of returning stopBoss/stopElite for autoResolveCombat to handle.
The sim uses compact=true (expedition_sim.go:433), so autoResolveCombat
- the only caller of simPickCombatAction/simPickSpell - never fires.
Verified empirically: a stderr-traced simPickSpell produced zero hits
across full bard/cleric L10 runs.
This rewrites the picker-era retrospective. J2's baseline_j2a_v2_all10
(bard 40%, cleric 39%) was measured before D3 with the picker live.
d7d's L10 baseline (bard 34%, cleric 21%) is post-D3 with the picker
disconnected - that 6-18pp drop is the post-D3 caster regression, not
"long-expedition mechanics didn't help casters" as d7d framed it.
D8-a's "+2.2pp cleric" was also noise (1sigma ~ 1.8pp on n=500).
D8-b code kept in tree (correct, currently inert, turns on as soon as
the wire reconnects). Plan rewritten in section 8: D8-b and D8-c are
deferred behind D8-prereq, which splits compact so the sim opts out of
compact-inline boss/elite combat without affecting prod rendering.
Files:
- internal/plugin/expedition_sim.go: simPickSpell upcast enumeration
- gogobee_long_expedition_plan.md: D8-b implemented-but-inert,
D8-prereq added as next step
- sim_results/d8b_corpus.jsonl: 5000-row corpus retained for the
picker-dead baseline
Fix sim regression introduced by D5-b: bare `expedition start <zone>`
returns the loadout prompt DM without outfitting, so SimRunner.RunExpedition
was halting before persisting any expedition. Pass `heavy` from the
harness — tier-max packs, no prod paths touched.
D7-d corpus (sim_results/, gitignored): n=100 × 10 classes × 5 zones ×
L10. Leaderboard mirrors J2b — martials 78–82%, casters 21–42%, cluster
gap unchanged by long-expedition mechanics. Cleric worst at 21% (L10).
Bard/cleric trailers not relieved by autopilot camp pacing; remains
J3-territory. T3/T4 cleared runs hit their §2 target durations.
D5-d retune decision: no change. phase5BDailyBurnRatePct=50 + per-tier
DailyBurn stay as-is — heavy-preset cleared runs end with 78–98% SU
surplus; even TPK runs leave packs mostly full. Supply economy is not
a binding constraint at heavy preset.
Closes the long-expedition track.
cmd/expedition-sim -days N caps runs by synthetic day rollovers
(Outcome="day_capped"). SimResult.DaySnapshots traces HP/SU/threat/rooms
at start, every Night-camp rollover, and end-of-run — unblocks empirical
D5-d retune of phase5BDailyBurnRatePct against per-day SU draws.
maybeAutoCamp / pitchAutopilotCamp / pitchBossSafetyCamp now take a
now time.Time so the sim can inject a synthetic clock; tryAutoRun
still passes time.Now().UTC(). SimRunner.RunExpedition advances simNow
by autoRunCooldown per walk and runs the production camp scheduler
after each soft stop (and pitchBossSafetyCamp on stopBossSafety),
dwelling minAutoCampDwell + breakAutoCampIfDue so the next walk can
proceed. Effect: HP-low mid-day rests, base-camp waypoints, Night-camp
rollovers, and boss-safety holds all fire under the sim; D7-a's
tickEventAnchoredRollover shortcut is retained on TickDay for tests
and the pre-cutoff legacy path.
deliverBriefingEventAnchored reads time.Now().UTC() for its safety-net
check, so synthetic TickDay calls never advanced CurrentDay on D2-b
expeditions — DaysAtEnd / SUEnd stayed at start values. Short-circuit
in TickDay: when isEventAnchored, fire nightRolloverBurn → optional
applyCampRest (Standard, Rough fallback, skipped on low-SU) →
nightRolloverDrift(briefAt). Mirrors pitchAutopilotCamp Night=true.
Production paths untouched.
Unblocks D5-d retune of phase5BDailyBurnRatePct and the class corpus
re-run.
Synthetic sim chars are vanilla base-class (no pet, no subclass), so the
per-round pet attack/deflect/whiff path was never exercised in the sim.
Add -pet-level N (1-10) which stamps a base Massive Dog (no armor) onto the
AdventureCharacter via the normal save path before the run, so combat's
DerivePlayerStats sees HasPet()==true. 0 (default) stays petless.
Measured lift (n=40, 10 classes x L3/7/12 x 3 zones): overall clear-rate
38.3% petless -> 47.8% at pet L10 (+9.4pp); biggest gains go to the caster
trailers (bard +13.3, warlock +11.9, cleric +11.4), narrowing class spread.
Mirror runAutopilotWalk's multi-region auto-advance in the headless sim:
on a mid-zone stopComplete (active multi-region exp with a next region),
advanceToNextRegion and keep simulating instead of scoring a premature
"cleared". A transit error there is now recorded as halted, not cleared.
Also fix misleading run-complete wording: a non-boss region clear of a
multi-region zone now reads "Cleared {region}. The way to {next} opens
ahead." instead of "Cleared {zone}. Run complete." New midZoneRegionClear
helper shares finalizeExpeditionOnZoneClear's gating; the path is shared
with manual !region travel, so both autopilot and manual play get it.
(cherry picked from commit 5d2bba70849a0a3fdeac285cc55ea9b8fadea29c)
autoResolveCombat now calls maybeShortRest after a won fight (HP < 60%
or any slots used, charges > 0), mirroring what a competent prod player
does between rooms. Re-baseline at n=100 across the full 10×3×5 matrix
written to baseline_h5sim_all10.jsonl.
Headline (vs baseline_j2a_v2_all10.jsonl, full delta in h5sim_findings.md):
mage L12 manor +8pp, cleric L12 manor +7pp, but bard L12 manor stays at
1pp and bard/cleric L12 underdark still 0. J2c (defaultKnownSpells
damage option at L3+ for bard, L4+ for cleric) is still the lever for
the trailers. Four borderline -9pp regressions on n=100 cells; flagged
for an n=300 re-run before declaring a sim defect.
The post-J1 sweep had the casters clustered at 19–22% L12 clear, vs
martials at 70–80%. A per-round trace across 240 boss-room fights showed
why: autoResolveCombat dispatched !attack only — zero spell_casts, zero
mid-fight consumable uses across every caster class. The entire "caster
cliff" was the sim measuring a strawman where casters couldn't cast.
J2a teaches the sim's autoResolveCombat to mirror a competent prod
player: heal at low HP if an inventory consumable is available, otherwise
cast the highest-EV damage spell (slot or cantrip), otherwise swing.
BuildCharacter now seeds the known-spell list via ensureSpellsForCharacter
so the synthetic spellbook is populated. A -trace flag on the cmd
attaches the raw CombatEvent stream to the last combat of each run for
post-hoc diagnostics.
A first re-baseline (n=100, all 10 classes) showed Ranger regressed
-35.8pp — the picker was burning L3 slots on lightning_arrow when
Ranger's weapon chassis (Hunter's Mark + Extra Attack) was the better
play. Added simMartialFirstClass to gate the picker off for Ranger and
Paladin (whose default kit is also weapon-first / no damage spells).
J2c experimented with widening the picker to control + heal spells;
heal-spell preempt cost druid 10pp (slot heals are 10HP vs 40HP
consumables) and control-spell scoring at 22 cost warlock 6.6pp. Both
reverted. Corpora retained under baseline_j2c*.jsonl for the post-mortem
in sim_results/j2b_findings.md.
Post-J2 L12 leaderboard (baseline_j2a_v2_all10.jsonl, n=100):
fighter 80.0, ranger 80.0, paladin 78.4, rogue 76.8,
druid 61.6, mage 53.4, sorcerer 50.6, warlock 48.2,
bard 40.4, cleric 39.0.
The caster cluster is dissolved; martials are within ±5pp of J1 (sweep
noise). Bard/cleric still trail, but it's no longer a sim artifact —
their defaultKnownSpells damage rosters cap at L2 and the picker can't
pick spells they don't have. That's a prod-level fix, deferred.
J3 trace (sim_results/j3_findings.md): T5 dragons_lair walls every solo
class at 0% (Infernax 546 HP vs solo player HP 110–175; ~25% boss HP
eaten before TPK across all classes). Per the J3 plan menu, this is
party-shaped content the engine doesn't yet have parties for. Surface
a TwinBee-voiced heads-up in handleDnDExpeditionCmd's start path and a
matching tag in !expedition list — players see "raid-shaped — solo
runs not yet survivable" before they spend outfitting coin. No combat
or class balance changes.
Files: cmd/expedition-sim/main.go +trace flag; expedition_sim.go picker
+ SimCombatSummary.Events + spellbook seed; dnd_expedition_cmd.go
raidContentWarning + list tag. All baselines + traces + findings
checked in under sim_results/.
The class-identity audit (98ba416) wired Extra Attack via the new
resolvePlayerSwings helper, but only SimulateCombat (auto-resolve)
called it. The turn-based engine — every !fight/!attack and every
elite/boss gate the sim drives via autoResolveCombat — still called
single-swing resolvePlayerAttack, so Fighter L11+ got 1 swing/turn at
the gates instead of 3. The audit close-out was correct in spirit but
half-applied.
J1 baseline matrix surfaced it: Fighter L12 cleared 100% of T2 forest
but 2% of T3 manor and 7% of T4 underdark, with %boss_reached at 100%
across the board. The wall was the boss-room damage exchange, not
mid-zone attrition. Trace dump on a sample fight: Fighter dealt 79
dmg in 14 rounds (7 hits / 9 swings) — exactly one swing per round —
versus 167 enemy dmg. With multi-swing wired in, the same fight ends
in 7 rounds with the boss dead, Fighter at 87/168 HP, 16 hits in 19
swings.
n=100 matrix after the fix:
Fighter L12 manor: 2% → 100% clr
Fighter L12 underdark: 7% → 98% clr
Fighter L12 forest: 94% → 100% (no leader regression)
Mage cells unchanged (J2 territory). Rogue cells within noise.
Sim infra changes that landed alongside (needed to read the J1
signal):
* expedition_sim auto-arms class-default defensive abilities
(Second Wind / Healing Word) via the new simAutoArmEnabled toggle
+ trySimAutoArm helper, hooked before applyArmedAbility in both
combat builders. Production code paths untouched (toggle stays
off). Without this the sim simulated a player who never types
!arm, which under-counts class survival.
* SimResult.Combats captures per-fight turn-log summaries (rounds,
hits/misses, damage by side, AC values inferred from RollAgainst)
so future J-phase questions can dig into the engine without
re-running the matrix.
* sim_results/run_matrix.sh fans the matrix across (class,level,zone)
cells via xargs -P (one process per cell — each owns its global
sqlite handle). ~6× wall-clock speedup on a 14-core box; n=100
matrix runs in ~3min.
* sim_results/summarize.sh gains p50_yld_clr + %boss_reached columns
so future sweeps don't conflate "reaches boss" with "clears zone".
Baselines:
sim_results/baseline_j0_n100.jsonl — pre-fix (1350 rows)
sim_results/baseline_j1_extra_attack.jsonl — post-fix (4500 rows)
Phase J state: J0 baseline locked, J1 done. T5 dragons_lair still
0% clear universally (J3). Mage T2+ wall still real (J2).
Harden expedition-sim with the three layers a real player carries:
race mods (+1 Human across the board), tier-appropriate equipment
(weapon/armor/helmet/boots/tool promoted from tier 0 to a level-mapped
tier), and a lean consumables bundle (2 heals + 1 buff at T2-T4,
3 heals + 2 buffs at T5). Capture material yields in SimResult so
calibration sweeps actually read out the H4 signal.
Three sweeps in sim_results/ (n=10): bare baseline, +gear/race,
+lean consumables. Headline: yield is gated by combat survival, not
charge counts. Fighter and Mage hit a sharp wall at T3+ even kitted;
no class extracts the T5 dragons_lair boss. Tuning charges before
fixing class survival would over-tune against a strawman, so H4
is now flagged blocked on Phase J.
Phase J appended to gogobee_harvest_charges_plan.md:
J0 baseline at n=30, J1 Fighter T3+ wall, J2 Mage T2+ wall,
J3 T5 boss (sim artifact vs over-tuned vs raid content),
J4 validation matrix.
RunExpedition now drives expeditions end-to-end through the production
plugin paths:
- TickDay calls deliverRecap + deliverBriefing with a synthetic clock
anchored on exp.StartDate, advancing one day per call without
real-time waits.
- Autopilot bursts use compact mode so elite gates auto-resolve inline.
- Boss / surviving elite gates are auto-resolved via handleFightCmd +
looped handleAttackCmd until the session flips Won/Lost/Fled.
- Forks resolve to path 1 deterministically.
- SimResult exposes StopCode, Walks, DayTicks, Threat, plus the full
dnd_expedition_log projected as SimLogEntry rows.
SimRunner re-uses production plugin code paths against a fresh sqlite DB —
SendDM no-ops without a Matrix client, so ground truth comes from the DB.
BuildCharacter persists adv+dnd character rows with class-appropriate
ability scores and spell slots; RunExpedition loops !expedition run with
stall detection until the autopilot halts or the expedition closes.
The cmd binary is a thin orchestrator: one flag-driven run, JSON output.
Per-room structured logging, day-cycle fast-forward, and matrix batching
are next session.
