Commit Graph

3 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
prosolis
5ef10e35dc Phase 5b: player power floor + Phase-3 winners shipped to live
Closes the 'fairly breezy with some death' target the user picked
for Phase 5. Five-piece ship; Phase 1 matrix lands T1 88%, T2 74%,
T4 72%, T5 ~57% in or above band. T3 remains the design hump at
~45% (manor 39, underforge 47) — Wraith promotion to elite was
already done in Phase 4-B, the remaining standard-pool deaths are
the irreducible part of T3.

Pieces:
  1. computeMaxHP × 1.5 (phase5BHPMult in dnd.go). Uniform across
     class/level so the class-balance harness's in-tier parity
     assertion stays green. Bootstrap (bootstrap_phase5b_hp.go)
     refreshes hp_max for existing characters at startup;
     idempotent via db.JobCompleted. hp_current is bumped by the
     same delta so a full-HP character stays at full.
  2. applyPhase5BPlayerFloor (dnd_combat.go): +3 AC, +3 AttackBonus,
     +3 weapon.MagicBonus (damage). Applied at the END of
     applyDnDEquipmentLayer (after computeArmorAC's AC override)
     and inside buildHarnessPlayer so live and harness measurement
     match.
  3. Elite bracket 19 → 23 (resolveCombatInterrupt). Case order
     puts Elite (≥23) before Patrol (≥22) so a 23+ total prefers
     the single dangerous fight. Elite is now effectively a
     high-threat event reachable only via the +1-per-20-threat-
     above-40 mod — Phase 4-B's elite-pool monsters still appear,
     just less often.
  4. dailyThreatDrift base 3 → 1. Slows the threat clock so
     players have the days they need before threat tips zones
     into the new 23+ elite band.
  5. applyDailyBurn default → 50% (phase5BDailyBurnRatePct). Also
     applied in the temporal-override branch in
     dnd_expedition_cycle.go so tidal / unraveling days scale by
     the same 0.5× — otherwise those days would be
     disproportionately harsh against the new baseline.

The harness's expedition_balance.go reads phase5BDailyBurnRatePct
as the default-burn fallback when the override knob is zero, so
Phase 1 matrix measurements now reflect what live players
experience.

Test debt: 13 pinned-numbers unit tests across combat_stats_test,
dnd_test, dnd_xp_test, dnd_equipment_profiles_test,
dnd_expedition_supplies_test, dnd_expedition_cycle_test,
dnd_expedition_extract_test, dnd_expedition_region_cmd_test,
dnd_expedition_combat_test, dnd_expedition_threat_test,
dnd_expedition_temporal_test, expedition_balance_test were
pinning pre-Phase-5-B baselines; updated with comments noting
the cause. Class-balance suite stayed green (uniform buff
preserves spread).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 12:11:27 -07:00
prosolis
ddfa89e7a7 D&D: class-balance Phase 1 — full 10×30 measurement matrix
Generalizes the Phase 0 spike harness to the full build matrix the
class-balance doc plans for. No tuning yet — just measurement.

- classBalanceProfile gains Subclass; buildHarnessCharacter sets it on
  the synthetic DnDCharacter; buildHarnessPlayer now calls
  applySubclassPassives after class+race passives, matching live order
  (combat_bridge.go, combat_session_build.go). Subclass="" is a no-op,
  so L1–L4 pre-unlock rows are unaffected.
- buildPhase1Profiles yields 190 rows: 10 classes × 4 pre-subclass
  levels (L1–L4) + 10 classes × 3 subclasses × 5 post-unlock checkpoints
  (L5/7/10/15/20). Order is registry order so output reads like the
  design doc / !class help.
- TestClassBalance_Phase1_FullMatrix runs the matrix at 200 trials/cell
  (~5.5s) and logs every cell plus a per-class tier-mean summary with
  min/max range. Only harness-broken pathologies fail the test (0% at
  T1 anywhere, or 100% at T5 for an L1 build); per-tier parity bands
  land in Phase 2 once we have data to calibrate the tolerance.

Phase-2 baseline from this run: at T4 the cross-class spread of mean
win rate runs Bard 0.62 → Fighter 0.80 (~18pp); at T5 0.48 → 0.64
(~16pp); casters trail martials at the post-unlock tier (T3) by ~20pp.

Phase 0 test (TestClassBalance_Phase0_FighterVsMage) still green with
identical numbers — the additional applySubclassPassives call is a
no-op for Subclass=="".
2026-05-14 20:00:00 -07:00
prosolis
4dd1ab9f96 D&D: class-balance Phase 0 — Fighter-vs-Mage Monte Carlo spike
Per gogobee_class_balance.md §5 Phase 0: harness skeleton, equipment
and spell-selection policies, Fighter-vs-Mage plausibility run before
Phase 1 generalizes to the full 10 × 30 matrix.

Bypassed in Phase 0 (per doc §2): DB-touching layers (magic items,
armed abilities, pending-cast persistence), subclass passives (none
below L5), and race passives beyond Human +1-all. Everything else
flows through the production combat path.

Initial numbers (400 trials/cell, dungeon T1..T5):

  fighter L1  .998 .805 .165 .020 .000
  fighter L3 1.000 .998 .795 .235 .035
  mage    L1  .880 .190 .003 .000 .000
  mage    L3 1.000 .950 .158 .003 .000

Both classes win at T1 (spell policy is firing — Magic Missile lands
each Mage fight); both collapse by their off-tier — monster scaling
works. The Mage's L1 T2 gap (-60pp vs Fighter) is real data, not a
broken harness. Phase 1 picks up the full matrix from here.
2026-05-14 19:54:01 -07:00