J3 D8-review: surface sim subprocess errors + SW upcast + doorway msg

- expedition-sim matrix worker now captures child stderr and dumps
  runErr/stderr/stdout-snippet on failure so halted rows have a cause.
- simPickSpiritualWeapon walks slots 2..5 and upcasts when L2 is spent
  instead of silently skipping the spell on high-level clerics.
- advanceOnceWithOpts !inlineBossCombat branch now emits the same
  "Room X/Y — Boss/Elite. Type !fight to engage." line as foreground.

cmd/expedition-sim/main.go

@@ -13,12 +13,16 @@
 package main
 
 import (
+	"bytes"
 	"encoding/json"
 	"flag"
 	"fmt"
 	"os"
+	"os/exec"
+	"runtime"
 	"strconv"
 	"strings"
+	"sync"
 
 	"gogobee/internal/plugin"
 
@@ -32,6 +36,7 @@ func main() {
 		zone    = flag.String("zone", "goblin_warrens", "zone id (single-run mode)")
 		bank    = flag.Float64("bank", 1000, "starting coin balance — must cover outfitting")
 		cap     = flag.Int("cap", 50, "max autopilot bursts per expedition (each = up to autopilotRoomCap rooms)")
+		days    = flag.Int("days", 0, "stop after N synthetic day rollovers (0 = unbounded; the -cap safety net still applies)")
 		dataDir = flag.String("data", "", "data dir for the temp sqlite db (default: OS tempdir; ignored in matrix mode)")
 		userTag = flag.String("user", "@sim:expedition", "synthetic user id (single-run mode)")
 		logFlag = flag.Bool("log", true, "include per-row expedition log in output (single-run default true; matrix default false)")
@@ -45,6 +50,8 @@ func main() {
 		trace = flag.Bool("trace", false, "include raw per-round CombatEvent stream on the LAST combat of each expedition (boss room) — for J2 diagnostic sweeps")
 
 		petLevel = flag.Int("pet-level", 0, "attach a base housing pet at this level (1-10) to every sim character; 0 = no pet (default, matches prod char-creation)")
+
+		jobs = flag.Int("jobs", 0, "matrix mode — concurrent worker count (each worker is a subprocess so it gets its own sqlite). 0 = runtime.NumCPU()")
 	)
 	flag.Parse()
 
@@ -65,14 +72,14 @@ func main() {
 				includeLog = *logFlag
 			}
 		})
-		runMatrix(*classes, *levels, *zones, *runs, *bank, *cap, includeLog)
+		runMatrix(*classes, *levels, *zones, *runs, *bank, *cap, *days, includeLog, *jobs, *trace, *petLevel)
 		return
 	}
 
-	runSingle(*class, *level, *zone, *userTag, *dataDir, *bank, *cap, *logFlag)
+	runSingle(*class, *level, *zone, *userTag, *dataDir, *bank, *cap, *days, *logFlag)
 }
 
-func runSingle(class string, level int, zone, userTag, dataDir string, bank float64, cap int, includeLog bool) {
+func runSingle(class string, level int, zone, userTag, dataDir string, bank float64, cap, days int, includeLog bool) {
 	dir := dataDir
 	if dir == "" {
 		var err error
@@ -83,7 +90,7 @@ func runSingle(class string, level int, zone, userTag, dataDir string, bank floa
 		defer os.RemoveAll(dir)
 	}
 
-	res, err := runOne(dir, id.UserID(userTag), plugin.DnDClass(class), level, plugin.ZoneID(zone), bank, cap)
+	res, err := runOne(dir, id.UserID(userTag), plugin.DnDClass(class), level, plugin.ZoneID(zone), bank, cap, days)
 	if err != nil {
 		if res != nil {
 			if !includeLog {
@@ -99,47 +106,129 @@ func runSingle(class string, level int, zone, userTag, dataDir string, bank floa
 	emitIndented(res)
 }
 
-func runMatrix(classes, levels, zones string, runs int, bank float64, cap int, includeLog bool) {
+// matrixJob is one (class, level, zone, replicate-index) cell of the
+// matrix sweep. Each job is run by a worker as a single-run subprocess so
+// it gets its own SQLite handle — the plugin package's db.* globals
+// preclude in-process parallelism.
+type matrixJob struct {
+	class string
+	level int
+	zone  string
+	rep   int
+}
+
+func runMatrix(classes, levels, zones string, runs int, bank float64, cap, days int, includeLog bool, jobs int, trace bool, petLevel int) {
 	cs := splitNonEmpty(classes)
 	ls := parseLevels(levels)
 	zs := splitNonEmpty(zones)
 	if len(cs) == 0 || len(ls) == 0 || len(zs) == 0 || runs <= 0 {
 		fail("matrix mode requires non-empty -classes, -levels, -zones and runs > 0")
 	}
-	enc := json.NewEncoder(os.Stdout)
+	if jobs <= 0 {
+		jobs = runtime.NumCPU()
+	}
+	exe, err := os.Executable()
+	if err != nil {
+		fail("os.Executable:", err)
+	}
+
+	work := make([]matrixJob, 0, len(cs)*len(ls)*len(zs)*runs)
 	for _, c := range cs {
 		for _, lv := range ls {
 			for _, z := range zs {
 				for r := 0; r < runs; r++ {
-					dir, err := os.MkdirTemp("", "expedition-sim-")
-					if err != nil {
-						fail("mkdir temp:", err)
-					}
-					uid := id.UserID(fmt.Sprintf("@sim:%s-l%d-%s-%d", c, lv, z, r))
-					res, runErr := runOne(dir, uid, plugin.DnDClass(c), lv, plugin.ZoneID(z), bank, cap)
-					if res != nil && !includeLog {
-						res.Log = nil
-					}
-					if runErr != nil && res == nil {
-						// Synthesize a row so the corpus has one line per
-						// cell regardless of init failures.
-						res = &plugin.SimResult{
-							UserID:  string(uid),
-							Class:   c,
-							Level:   lv,
-							Zone:    z,
-							Outcome: "halted",
-						}
-					}
-					_ = enc.Encode(res)
-					_ = os.RemoveAll(dir)
+					work = append(work, matrixJob{class: c, level: lv, zone: z, rep: r})
 				}
 			}
 		}
 	}
+
+	workCh := make(chan matrixJob)
+	resCh := make(chan *plugin.SimResult, len(work))
+	var wg sync.WaitGroup
+	for i := 0; i < jobs; i++ {
+		wg.Add(1)
+		go matrixWorker(exe, workCh, resCh, &wg, bank, cap, days, includeLog, trace, petLevel)
+	}
+	go func() {
+		for _, j := range work {
+			workCh <- j
+		}
+		close(workCh)
+	}()
+	go func() {
+		wg.Wait()
+		close(resCh)
+	}()
+
+	enc := json.NewEncoder(os.Stdout)
+	for r := range resCh {
+		_ = enc.Encode(r)
+	}
 }
 
-func runOne(dataDir string, uid id.UserID, class plugin.DnDClass, level int, zone plugin.ZoneID, bank float64, cap int) (*plugin.SimResult, error) {
+func matrixWorker(exe string, in <-chan matrixJob, out chan<- *plugin.SimResult, wg *sync.WaitGroup, bank float64, cap, days int, includeLog, trace bool, petLevel int) {
+	defer wg.Done()
+	for j := range in {
+		uid := fmt.Sprintf("@sim:%s-l%d-%s-%d", j.class, j.level, j.zone, j.rep)
+		dir, err := os.MkdirTemp("", "expedition-sim-")
+		if err != nil {
+			out <- &plugin.SimResult{UserID: uid, Class: j.class, Level: j.level, Zone: j.zone, Outcome: "halted"}
+			continue
+		}
+		args := []string{
+			"-class", j.class,
+			"-level", strconv.Itoa(j.level),
+			"-zone", j.zone,
+			"-bank", strconv.FormatFloat(bank, 'f', -1, 64),
+			"-cap", strconv.Itoa(cap),
+			"-days", strconv.Itoa(days),
+			"-data", dir,
+			"-user", uid,
+			fmt.Sprintf("-log=%t", includeLog),
+			fmt.Sprintf("-pet-level=%d", petLevel),
+		}
+		if trace {
+			args = append(args, "-trace")
+		}
+		cmd := exec.Command(exe, args...)
+		var stderrBuf bytes.Buffer
+		cmd.Stderr = &stderrBuf
+		stdout, runErr := cmd.Output()
+		var res plugin.SimResult
+		jerr := json.Unmarshal(stdout, &res)
+		if jerr != nil {
+			res = plugin.SimResult{UserID: uid, Class: j.class, Level: j.level, Zone: j.zone, Outcome: "halted"}
+		}
+		if runErr != nil && res.Outcome == "" {
+			res.Outcome = "halted"
+		}
+		// Surface subprocess failures: parse error with non-empty stdout
+		// (corrupted JSON) and non-zero exits both get a stderr dump so the
+		// user sees the underlying cause instead of just a halted row.
+		if jerr != nil || runErr != nil {
+			fmt.Fprintf(os.Stderr, "sim cell %s halted: runErr=%v jerr=%v\n", uid, runErr, jerr)
+			if stderrBuf.Len() > 0 {
+				fmt.Fprintf(os.Stderr, "  child stderr:\n%s\n", stderrBuf.String())
+			}
+			if jerr != nil && len(stdout) > 0 {
+				snip := stdout
+				if len(snip) > 200 {
+					snip = snip[:200]
+				}
+				fmt.Fprintf(os.Stderr, "  child stdout (first 200B): %q\n", snip)
+			}
+		}
+		if !includeLog {
+			res.Log = nil
+		}
+		out <- &res
+		_ = os.RemoveAll(dir)
+	}
+}
+
+
+func runOne(dataDir string, uid id.UserID, class plugin.DnDClass, level int, zone plugin.ZoneID, bank float64, cap, days int) (*plugin.SimResult, error) {
 	runner, err := plugin.NewSimRunner(dataDir)
 	if err != nil {
 		return nil, fmt.Errorf("init runner: %w", err)
@@ -150,7 +239,7 @@ func runOne(dataDir string, uid id.UserID, class plugin.DnDClass, level int, zon
 		return nil, fmt.Errorf("build character: %w", err)
 	}
 	runner.Euro.Credit(uid, bank, "expedition-sim bankroll")
-	return runner.RunExpedition(uid, zone, cap)
+	return runner.RunExpedition(uid, zone, cap, days)
 }
 
 func emitIndented(res *plugin.SimResult) {

gogobee_long_expedition_plan.md

@@ -136,10 +136,66 @@ Each successful background walk now logs a `walk` entry (`appendExpeditionLog(..
 - No new public command surface, no schema change, no test churn (no existing test asserted on the rewritten strings); full `go test ./...` green.
 
 ### D7 — Sim + class re-baseline
-- `cmd/expedition-sim` extensions: multi-day mode, autopilot camp, autopilot boss.
-- Re-run the class win-rate corpus (cross-link `project_class_balance`, `project_j2_sim_artifact`).
-- Re-check trailers (bard/cleric per `project_j1_post_sweep_findings`) — autopilot camp pacing may relieve their HP-cliff issue.
-- New balance memory entry once corpus stabilizes.
+
+**D7-a (shipped 2026-05-27):** `SimRunner.TickDay` now drives event-anchored expeditions. `expedition_sim.go` short-circuits when `isEventAnchored(exp)` is true: instead of calling `deliverBriefing` (whose `deliverBriefingEventAnchored` branch reads `time.Now().UTC()` and would never trip the safety-net under synthetic ticks), it runs `nightRolloverBurn` → optional `applyCampRest(Standard)` if affordable (Rough fallback, skipped on low-SU) → `nightRolloverDrift(briefAt)`. Mirrors `pitchAutopilotCamp` with `Night=true`. Production paths untouched. New `expedition_sim_test.go` covers (i) 3 ticks advancing day 1→4 with supply burn + stamped `LastBriefingAt`, and (ii) the low-SU branch where the rest is skipped but burn/drift still fire. Unblocks D5-d empirical re-baseline of `phase5BDailyBurnRatePct` and the class corpus re-run.
+
+**D7-b (shipped 2026-05-27):** `SimRunner.RunExpedition` now drives the production camp scheduler under a synthetic clock (`simWalkInterval = autoRunCooldown`, 2h per walk). After every soft-stop walk it calls `maybeAutoCamp(exp, simNow)`; `stopBossSafety` routes to `pitchBossSafetyCamp(exp, simNow)`. The helpers (`applyAutoCamp` / `applyAutoCampBossSafety`) advance `simNow` past `minAutoCampDwell` (4h) and break the auto-pitched camp via `breakAutoCampIfDue` so the next walk proceeds. `maybeAutoCamp`, `pitchAutopilotCamp`, and `pitchBossSafetyCamp` gained a `now time.Time` parameter (the only prod caller, `tryAutoRun`, still passes `time.Now().UTC()`). Effect: HP-low mid-day rests, multi-region base-camp waypoints, Night-camp rollovers, and boss-safety holds all fire under the sim — the D7-a `tickEventAnchoredRollover` shortcut is no longer used by RunExpedition (kept on TickDay for tests + the pre-cutoff legacy path). Coverage in `expedition_sim_test.go`: Night-camp day advance, HP-low mid-day rest, boss-safety force-pitch, no-op when neither trigger fires.
+
+**D7-c (shipped 2026-05-27):** `cmd/expedition-sim` gained a `-days N` flag — when set, `RunExpedition` exits with `Outcome="day_capped"` after the Nth synthetic day rollover; 0 (default) is unbounded and only the existing `-cap` walk safety net applies. `SimResult` gained `DaySnapshots []SimDaySnapshot` ({Day, HPCurrent, HPMax, Supplies, Threat, Rooms}), captured at expedition start (Day 0), after every `applyAutoCamp`/`applyAutoCampBossSafety` Night-camp rollover, and one final end-of-run entry (reads `getExpedition(mostRecentExpeditionID(...))` when the row already extracted so closed runs still close their trajectory). `RunExpedition` signature picked up the `maxDays int` parameter; sole caller is the CLI. Coverage: `TestSimRunner_CaptureDaySnapshot_PopulatesFields` exercises the helper in isolation (HP from the live character row, SU/threat/day from the live expedition, Rooms from `res.Rooms`). Unblocks empirical D5-d retune of `phase5BDailyBurnRatePct` against per-day SU draws.
+
+**D7-d (shipped 2026-05-27):** class corpus re-run + D5-d retune decision. First fixed a sim regression `expedition_sim.go` introduced by D5-b — bare `expedition start <zone>` now returns the loadout prompt instead of outfitting, so the sim was halting before persisting any expedition; harness now passes the `heavy` preset. Corpus: `sim_results/d7d_corpus.jsonl` (n=100 × 10 classes × 5 zones × L10 = 5000 runs, `heavy` preset, `-cap 300`). Analysis: `sim_results/d7d_analyze.py`. Writeup: `sim_results/d7d_findings.md`. **Key reads:** (i) leaderboard mirrors [[project_j2_sim_artifact]] — martials 78–82%, casters 21–42%, ~40pp cluster gap unchanged by long-expedition mechanics; (ii) bard/cleric trailers **not** relieved by autopilot camp pacing — cleric actually regressed at L10 (21% vs J2b L12 39%) on spell-pool richness, J3-territory; (iii) T3 hits target 4-day duration (median 3), T4 hits 5–6 days (median 5), T5 hits 5 of 7 (only 21 clears); (iv) **D5-d retune: no change.** `phase5BDailyBurnRatePct=50` + per-tier `DailyBurn` stay as-is — heavy-preset cleared runs end with 78–98% SU remaining; supply economy is not a binding constraint and players lose to HP zero, not starvation. New memory entry: [[project_d7d_baseline]].
+
+**Remaining work (D7-e+):** none scheduled; long-expedition mechanics are at v1. Future tuning rides on the J3 caster sim-picker work below (split out of the long-expedition track).
+
+## 8. J3 caster-picker rework (next session)
+
+**Why split out:** D7-d corpus confirmed the martial/caster gap is class-roster + sim-picker driven, not autopilot/burn/pacing driven. Long-expedition mechanics are settled; the trailer fix lives in the sim picker, not the expedition shell.
+
+**D8-a (shipped 2026-05-27, this session):** quick data-layer cleanup. Bard L1 prepared list gained `thunderwave`; L2 gained `heat_metal`. Cleric L1 gained `inflict_wounds`. `shatter` overlay Classes broadened to mage/bard/sorcerer (overlay was already unioning via `mergeClassList`, so this is defensive). New `simPickSpiritualWeapon` runs before `simPickSpell` in `simPickCombatAction`: cleric with an L2 slot + spiritual_weapon prepared + `sess.Statuses.BuffSpiritProc == 0` opens the fight with it, picking up the existing `spiritWeaponStrike` per-round bonus-action attack. **Measured impact (L10, n=100/zone, heavy preset):** cleric 21.0 → 23.2% (+2.2pp), bard 34.2 → 32.8% (within noise). T3+ wall unchanged — the data fixes are correct but the picker math is what's binding. Files touched: `internal/plugin/dnd_spells_data.go:192`, `internal/plugin/dnd_spells.go:822,881,884`, `internal/plugin/expedition_sim.go:simPickCombatAction + new simPickSpiritualWeapon`. All green.
+
+**D8-b (implemented 2026-05-27, **inert** — see D8-prereq below): sim picker upcasting.** `simPickSpell` (`internal/plugin/expedition_sim.go:933`) now enumerates one candidate per available slot ≥ native for every prepared damage spell, scored via `spellExpectedDamage(sp, slotLevel, c.Level)`. Cantrips contribute a single slot-0 candidate. Tie-break: highest slot first, then highest expDmg. When the winning slot exceeds the spell's native level, the picker returns `"<id> --upcast N"` so `parseCombatCast` upcasts in the engine. Build + tests green.
+
+**Measured impact: nothing.** d8b corpus (`sim_results/d8b_corpus.jsonl`, same matrix as d7d) lands every class within ±1.5pp of the d7d baseline — bard −1.0, cleric −0.4, mage −1.2, sorcerer +1.4, warlock −0.8, druid +0.6, martials ±0.2. Pure noise band. Expected bard +5–10pp / mage+sorcerer+warlock +2–8pp never materialized.
+
+**Root cause (discovered post-corpus, this session):** `simPickSpell` is **dead code** in the current sim path. Commit `68ed8e7` ("Long expeditions D3: compact autopilot auto-resolves boss rooms") added a `!compact` gate at `dnd_expedition_cmd.go:810` so compact autopilot inline-resolves boss/elite rooms via `resolveCombatRoom` → `runZoneCombat` → `SimulateCombat` instead of returning `stopBoss/stopElite` for `autoResolveCombat` to handle. The sim uses `compact=true` (`expedition_sim.go:433`), so `autoResolveCombat` — the only caller of `simPickCombatAction`/`simPickSpell` — never fires. Verified empirically: a stderr-traced `simPickSpell` produced zero hits across full bard/cleric L10 runs.
+
+This rewrites the picker-era retrospective. **J2's `baseline_j2a_v2_all10.jsonl` (bard 40%, cleric 39%) was measured before D3, with the picker live.** d7d's L10 baseline (bard 34%, cleric 21%) was measured *after* D3, with the picker disconnected — that ~6–18pp drop is the post-D3 caster regression, not "long-expedition mechanics didn't help casters" as the d7d writeup framed it. D8-a's "+2.2pp cleric" was also noise (1σ ≈ 1.8pp on n=500).
+
+**D8-prereq (SHIPPED 2026-05-28, commit `631764b`):** split the `compact` flag in `runAutopilotWalk` / `advanceOnceWithOpts` into `compact` + `inlineBossCombat`. Production background autorun (`expedition_autorun.go:173`) passes `(true, true)` — unchanged inline auto-resolve. Sim (`expedition_sim.go:432`) passes `(true, false)` so boss/elite doorways return `stopBoss`/`stopElite` after the safety gate; `autoResolveCombat` → `simPickCombatAction` → `simPickSpell` / `simPickSpiritualWeapon` now drive boss/elite fights through the turn-based `!fight` engine. D8-b upcasting went live with the rewire. Foreground (`!expedition run`) flow unchanged (compact=false short-circuits).
+
+Also parallelized matrix mode via subprocess workers (`cmd/expedition-sim/main.go`, `-jobs` flag; defaults to NumCPU). Each worker is its own process so the plugin's global SQLite handle isn't a contention point.
+
+**Measured impact (5000-run L10 corpus, `sim_results/d8prereq_corpus.jsonl` — full diff in `sim_results/d8prereq_findings.md`):**
+
+| Class    | d7d  | d8prereq | Δ      |
+|----------|-----:|---------:|-------:|
+| cleric   | 21.0 |   46.8   | +25.8  |
+| sorcerer | 29.4 |   52.0   | +22.6  |
+| warlock  | 35.4 |   55.6   | +20.2  |
+| mage     | 36.4 |   54.2   | +17.8  |
+| druid    | 42.2 |   56.6   | +14.4  |
+| bard     | 34.2 |   46.2   | +12.0  |
+| (martials) | ~80 |   ~78    |  -2 to -4 (noise + T4/T5 turn-engine regression) |
+
+Caster/martial gap closed from ~40pp to ~22pp. T2/T3 zones are now the picker payoff (forest_shadows 75 → 99, manor_blackspire 45 → 75). **T4 caster wall persists** (every caster 0% at underdark); **T5 is universally 0%** including martials. Both require separate diagnostics — picker isn't the binding constraint past T3.
+
+**D8-c (TODO next session): concentration-damage modeling.** `heat_metal`, `spirit_guardians`, `spike_growth`, `call_lightning`, `flaming_sphere`, `cloud_of_daggers`, etc. are scored once by `spellExpectedDamage` as if they were a single-shot, but their value is N rounds of repetition while concentration holds. The picker therefore under-ranks them — bard's `heat_metal` (2d8 concentration) loses to `shatter` (3d8 one-shot) on every L2 pick, even though heat_metal in real play deals 2d8 × ~4 rounds = 32 vs shatter's 13.5.
+
+- Touch: `spellExpectedDamage` in `internal/plugin/dnd_spell_combat.go` (or wherever it lives — verify). Add a concentration multiplier: if `sp.Concentration && sp.Effect ∈ {DamageAuto, DamageSave}` and damage dice present, multiply expDmg by an "expected concentration rounds" factor. Conservative start: 3 rounds (short of a real fight-length estimate, but big enough to flip the picker).
+- Risk: this also boosts druid (call_lightning, flaming_sphere) and cleric (spirit_guardians). That's desired — those are exactly the under-played identity spells. Don't multiplier-boost EffectDamageAttack (single-target attack-roll spells aren't typically concentration; `hex`-style cases are handled by mods, not the picker).
+- Subtle gotcha: casting a new concentration spell drops the old one. Picker is stateless (one decision per turn) so it can't easily know "I'm already concentrating on X." Acceptable v1: let it overwrite — sim noise will eat the rare double-cast. Stateful version: read `sess.Statuses` for an active concentration marker; defer.
+- Validation: re-baseline against `sim_results/d8prereq_corpus.jsonl`, **not** d7d. Expected: incremental movement at T3 (already high after prereq); unclear lift at T4 (depends on whether picker-gap is the binding constraint there — see D8-d).
+
+**D8-d (DIAGNOSTIC SHIPPED 2026-05-28):** T4 caster wall diagnosed; no code change landed. Writeup: `sim_results/d8d_findings.md`. **Hypothesis disambiguation across cleric/bard/mage/sorcerer/warlock/druid L10 underdark (n=3–5 each):** (a) multi-region transit damage — REJECTED. All casters TPK in r1 (`underdark_surface_tunnels`) before any cross-region transit; `Combats=0` (the elite/boss session table is empty); deaths are entirely inline `SimulateCombat` mob rooms. (b) T4 attack-bonus vs caster AC — confirmed contributor. `computeAC` floor gives casters AC 11–14 vs martial 16–17; T4 standard roster (Atk +5 to +7) hits ~60–65%. (c) HP scaling — confirmed contributor. Caster HPMax 93–110 vs martial 141 (~30% gap). (d) Heal-stock — minor lever, NOT the lever. Direct experiment: bumped `simConsumableBundle` T4 from 2 → 5 Spirit Tonics, re-ran n=5 per class. Median rooms-before-TPK lifted +3–5 but 0/5 clears across every caster. Reverted. **Recommended tuning lever (next session, NOT shipped here):** lift `computeAC` class floors (cleric/druid 3 → 5, bard/warlock 1 → 3, mage/sorcerer 0 → 2) — single function, easy to revert, doesn't move the martial leaders. Validate against `d8prereq_corpus.jsonl`. Hit-dice rescale is the second option but is bigger surface area.
+
+**D8-e (TODO next session): martial T4/T5 regression triage.** Paladin -18pp T4 / fighter -6pp T4 -5pp T5 / ranger -13pp T5 — the cost of moving boss/elite fights from inline `SimulateCombat` to the turn-based `!fight` engine. Two possibilities: (1) turn-engine plays martials slightly worse than inline-sim (action economy / multiattack handling differs — see [[project_sim_multiattack_gap]]); (2) inline-sim was over-rosy and the new numbers are the real ones. Read: trace one paladin underdark run pre/post and diff damage exchanges. If turn-engine is correct, prod martial numbers were inflated and we should not "fix" the regression.
+
+**Sequence:** D8-c → D8-d → D8-e. D8-c is the smallest lever and confirms the picker model. D8-d is the highest-value (caster T4 is the next gap to close). D8-e is informational — settles whether to trust the new numbers.
+
+**Open questions for D8:**
+1. ~~D8-b upcast aggressively or conservatively?~~ **Resolved:** aggressive — the T3 lift (mage +61, warlock +65, druid +68) confirms the model.
+2. D8-c concentration-rounds factor: 3 fixed, or scale with tier (longer fights at T4/T5)? Fixed is simpler; tier-scaled is more correct.
+3. ~~Cleric T3+ cliff~~ — **partial resolution:** picker rewire took cleric T3 0% → 39%. Cleric T4 is still 0% (and so is every other caster); now subsumed by D8-d.
 
 ## 4. Cross-cutting risks
 

internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_cmd.go

@@ -642,7 +642,7 @@ type autopilotWalkResult struct {
 // combat already auto-resolves inside resolveCombatRoom; elite/boss
 // doorways stop here so the player can choose !fight on their own terms.
 func (p *AdventurePlugin) expeditionCmdRun(ctx MessageContext) error {
-	r := p.runAutopilotWalk(ctx, autopilotRoomCap, false)
+	r := p.runAutopilotWalk(ctx, autopilotRoomCap, false, false)
 	if r.initErr != "" {
 		return p.SendDM(ctx.Sender, r.initErr)
 	}
@@ -667,7 +667,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) expeditionCmdRun(ctx MessageContext) error {
 // run graph / harvest tally / supplies / threat — same as before, just
 // no streamFlow here. compact==true switches the underlying combat
 // narration into terse mode and auto-resolves elite (not boss) rooms.
-func (p *AdventurePlugin) runAutopilotWalk(ctx MessageContext, maxRooms int, compact bool) autopilotWalkResult {
+func (p *AdventurePlugin) runAutopilotWalk(ctx MessageContext, maxRooms int, compact, inlineBossCombat bool) autopilotWalkResult {
 	exp, err := getActiveExpedition(ctx.Sender)
 	if err != nil {
 		return autopilotWalkResult{initErr: "Couldn't read expedition state: " + err.Error()}
@@ -717,7 +717,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) runAutopilotWalk(ctx MessageContext, maxRooms int, com
 			}
 		}
 
-		res, aerr := p.advanceOnceWithOpts(ctx, compact)
+		res, aerr := p.advanceOnceWithOpts(ctx, compact, inlineBossCombat)
 		if aerr != nil {
 			return autopilotWalkResult{initErr: aerr.Error()}
 		}

internal/plugin/dnd_spells.go

@@ -819,7 +819,7 @@ func defaultKnownSpells(class DnDClass, level int) []string {
 	case ClassCleric:
 		out := []string{"sacred_flame", "guidance", "mending"}
 		if level >= 1 {
-			out = append(out, "cure_wounds", "healing_word", "bless", "guiding_bolt", "shield_of_faith")
+			out = append(out, "cure_wounds", "healing_word", "bless", "guiding_bolt", "inflict_wounds", "shield_of_faith")
 		}
 		if maxSlot >= 2 {
 			out = append(out, "spiritual_weapon", "lesser_restoration", "aid")
@@ -878,10 +878,10 @@ func defaultKnownSpells(class DnDClass, level int) []string {
 	case ClassBard:
 		out := []string{"vicious_mockery", "minor_illusion", "message"}
 		if level >= 1 {
-			out = append(out, "cure_wounds", "healing_word", "heroism", "hideous_laughter", "faerie_fire")
+			out = append(out, "cure_wounds", "healing_word", "heroism", "hideous_laughter", "faerie_fire", "thunderwave")
 		}
 		if maxSlot >= 2 {
-			out = append(out, "hold_person", "shatter", "invisibility", "lesser_restoration")
+			out = append(out, "hold_person", "shatter", "heat_metal", "invisibility", "lesser_restoration")
 		}
 		if maxSlot >= 3 {
 			out = append(out, "hypnotic_pattern", "dispel_magic", "fear")

internal/plugin/dnd_spells_data.go

@@ -190,7 +190,7 @@ func buildSpellList() []SpellDefinition {
 			Description: "A foe locks rigid mid-step. Anything you hit them with next lands devastatingly well.",
 			Upcast:      "+1 target per slot above 2nd"},
 		{ID: "shatter", Name: "Shatter", Level: 2, School: "evocation",
-			Classes: mage, Effect: EffectDamageSave, CastTime: CastAction,
+			Classes: []DnDClass{ClassMage, ClassBard, ClassSorcerer}, Effect: EffectDamageSave, CastTime: CastAction,
 			SaveStat: "CON", DamageDice: "3d8", DamageType: "thunder", AOE: true,
 			Description: "An invisible chord rings, then snaps — everything brittle nearby cracks at once.",
 			Upcast:      "louder per slot above 2nd"},

internal/plugin/dnd_zone_cmd.go

@@ -472,10 +472,17 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) zoneCmdAdvance(ctx MessageContext) error {
 // doorways (boss still stops; boss is the climax beat). Foreground
 // `!expedition run` / `!zone advance` always pass false.
 func (p *AdventurePlugin) advanceOnce(ctx MessageContext) (advanceResult, error) {
-	return p.advanceOnceWithOpts(ctx, false)
+	return p.advanceOnceWithOpts(ctx, false, false)
 }
 
-func (p *AdventurePlugin) advanceOnceWithOpts(ctx MessageContext, compact bool) (advanceResult, error) {
+// inlineBossCombat (only consulted when compact==true) selects between the
+// two background combat paths at a boss/elite doorway. true keeps the
+// long-expedition D3 inline auto-resolve (production autorun). false
+// returns stopBoss/stopElite after the safety gate so a turn-based driver
+// — currently only the headless sim's autoResolveCombat / simPickCombatAction
+// — handles the fight via the regular !fight / !attack engine. The sim
+// uses false so simPickSpell actually fires; D8-prereq re-wired this seam.
+func (p *AdventurePlugin) advanceOnceWithOpts(ctx MessageContext, compact, inlineBossCombat bool) (advanceResult, error) {
 	run, err := getActiveZoneRun(ctx.Sender)
 	if err != nil {
 		return advanceResult{}, fmt.Errorf("Couldn't read run state: %s", err.Error())
@@ -560,6 +567,23 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) advanceOnceWithOpts(ctx MessageContext, compact bool)
 					}, nil
 				}
 			}
+			if !inlineBossCombat {
+				// Background caller wants to drive the fight itself (sim's
+				// autoResolveCombat / simPickCombatAction). Surface the
+				// doorway like the foreground path does, after the safety
+				// gate has had a chance to defer the engagement.
+				kind := "Elite"
+				r := stopElite
+				if prev == RoomBoss {
+					kind = "Boss"
+					r = stopBoss
+				}
+				return advanceResult{
+					final: fmt.Sprintf("**Room %d/%d — %s.** Type `!fight` to engage.",
+						prevIdx+1, run.TotalRooms, kind),
+					reason: r,
+				}, nil
+			}
 			// Compact-mode elite/boss auto-resolve. resolveCombatRoom
 			// selects monster + label by run.CurrentRoomType().
 			ai, ap, ao, aended, aerr := p.resolveCombatRoom(ctx.Sender, run, zone, prev == RoomElite, true)

internal/plugin/expedition_autocamp.go

@@ -157,7 +157,12 @@ func decideAutopilotCamp(in autoCampInputs) (autoCampDecision, bool) {
 // "" if no camp was pitched), along with the decision and an ok flag.
 // D4-a uses the Night bit on the decision to switch tryAutoRun's DM
 // rendering into end-of-day digest mode.
-func (p *AdventurePlugin) maybeAutoCamp(exp *Expedition) (string, autoCampDecision, bool) {
+//
+// now drives the nightCampWindow check inside decideAutopilotCamp and
+// the camp.EstablishedAt / drift timestamps inside pitchAutopilotCamp.
+// Production callers pass time.Now().UTC(); the sim injects a synthetic
+// clock so multi-day rollovers fire without real-time waits.
+func (p *AdventurePlugin) maybeAutoCamp(exp *Expedition, now time.Time) (string, autoCampDecision, bool) {
 	uid := id.UserID(exp.UserID)
 
 	var run *DungeonRun
@@ -190,7 +195,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) maybeAutoCamp(exp *Expedition) (string, autoCampDecisi
 		HPCur:          hpCur,
 		HPMax:          hpMax,
 		Supplies:       exp.Supplies,
-		Now:            time.Now().UTC(),
+		Now:            now,
 		EventAnchored:  isEventAnchored(exp),
 		LastBriefingAt: exp.LastBriefingAt,
 		StartDate:      exp.StartDate,
@@ -199,7 +204,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) maybeAutoCamp(exp *Expedition) (string, autoCampDecisi
 	if !ok {
 		return "", autoCampDecision{}, false
 	}
-	block, err := p.pitchAutopilotCamp(exp, d)
+	block, err := p.pitchAutopilotCamp(exp, d, now)
 	if err != nil {
 		slog.Warn("autopilot camp: pitch failed", "expedition", exp.ID, "kind", d.Kind, "err", err)
 		return "", autoCampDecision{}, false
@@ -215,7 +220,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) maybeAutoCamp(exp *Expedition) (string, autoCampDecisi
 // too: nightRolloverBurn before the camp cost (so the burn lands on
 // pre-pitch supplies, matching the legacy morning-burn ordering), then
 // applyCampRest, then nightRolloverDrift.
-func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchAutopilotCamp(exp *Expedition, d autoCampDecision) (string, error) {
+func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchAutopilotCamp(exp *Expedition, d autoCampDecision, now time.Time) (string, error) {
 	var (
 		nightBurn  float32
 		nightTemp  []string
@@ -234,7 +239,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchAutopilotCamp(exp *Expedition, d autoCampDecision
 			// Starvation during burn is rare (burn alone doesn't trigger
 			// starvation — that needs supplies <= 0 *after* burn), but
 			// guard anyway so we don't pitch a camp on an abandoned exp.
-			drift := p.nightRolloverDrift(exp, time.Now().UTC())
+			drift := p.nightRolloverDrift(exp, now)
 			nightTemp = drift.TemporalLines
 			nightMile = drift.MilestoneLines
 			nightForce = true
@@ -253,7 +258,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchAutopilotCamp(exp *Expedition, d autoCampDecision
 		Active:        true,
 		Type:          d.Kind,
 		RoomIndex:     campCurrentRoomIndex(exp),
-		EstablishedAt: time.Now().UTC(),
+		EstablishedAt: now,
 		NightEvents:   []string{},
 		AutoPitched:   true,
 	}
@@ -287,7 +292,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchAutopilotCamp(exp *Expedition, d autoCampDecision
 	}
 
 	if d.Night {
-		drift := p.nightRolloverDrift(exp, time.Now().UTC())
+		drift := p.nightRolloverDrift(exp, now)
 		nightTemp = drift.TemporalLines
 		nightMile = drift.MilestoneLines
 	}
@@ -348,7 +353,7 @@ func renderAutoCampBlock(exp *Expedition, d autoCampDecision, cost float32, flav
 // time has elapsed since the last briefing on an event-anchored
 // expedition, the pitch carries Night=true and runs the burn/drift
 // alongside the rest.
-func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchBossSafetyCamp(exp *Expedition) (string, autoCampDecision, bool) {
+func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchBossSafetyCamp(exp *Expedition, now time.Time) (string, autoCampDecision, bool) {
 	if exp == nil || exp.Status != ExpeditionStatusActive {
 		return "", autoCampDecision{}, false
 	}
@@ -371,9 +376,9 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchBossSafetyCamp(exp *Expedition) (string, autoCamp
 	if isEventAnchored(exp) {
 		var since time.Duration
 		if exp.LastBriefingAt != nil {
-			since = time.Since(*exp.LastBriefingAt)
+			since = now.Sub(*exp.LastBriefingAt)
 		} else {
-			since = time.Since(exp.StartDate)
+			since = now.Sub(exp.StartDate)
 		}
 		night = since >= nightCampWindow
 	}
@@ -382,7 +387,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) pitchBossSafetyCamp(exp *Expedition) (string, autoCamp
 		Reason: "boss-safety hold — resting before re-engaging",
 		Night:  night,
 	}
-	block, err := p.pitchAutopilotCamp(exp, d)
+	block, err := p.pitchAutopilotCamp(exp, d, now)
 	if err != nil {
 		slog.Warn("autopilot boss-safety camp: pitch failed", "expedition", exp.ID, "kind", kind, "err", err)
 		return "", autoCampDecision{}, false

internal/plugin/expedition_autocamp_test.go

@@ -160,7 +160,7 @@ func TestPitchAutopilotCamp_DeductsSuppliesAndRestores(t *testing.T) {
 	p := &AdventurePlugin{}
 	block, err := p.pitchAutopilotCamp(exp, autoCampDecision{
 		Kind: CampTypeStandard, Reason: "test pitch",
-	})
+	}, time.Now().UTC())
 	if err != nil {
 		t.Fatal(err)
 	}
@@ -300,7 +300,7 @@ func TestPitchAutopilotCamp_NightRunsProcessNightCamp(t *testing.T) {
 	p := &AdventurePlugin{}
 	_, err = p.pitchAutopilotCamp(exp, autoCampDecision{
 		Kind: CampTypeStandard, Reason: "night-camp test", Night: true,
-	})
+	}, time.Now().UTC())
 	if err != nil {
 		t.Fatal(err)
 	}

internal/plugin/expedition_autorun.go

@@ -170,7 +170,7 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) tryAutoRun(e *Expedition, now time.Time) error {
 	}
 
 	uid := id.UserID(e.UserID)
-	r := p.runAutopilotWalk(MessageContext{Sender: uid}, autoRunRoomCap, true)
+	r := p.runAutopilotWalk(MessageContext{Sender: uid}, autoRunRoomCap, true, true)
 	if r.initErr != "" {
 		// "no expedition" / "no run" — race with abandon/extract. Silent.
 		return nil
@@ -198,13 +198,13 @@ func (p *AdventurePlugin) tryAutoRun(e *Expedition, now time.Time) error {
 		// its RoomBoss block. Next tick past dwell retries the boss.
 		if fresh, ferr := getExpedition(e.ID); ferr == nil && fresh != nil &&
 			fresh.Status == ExpeditionStatusActive {
-			campBlock, campDecision, campPitched = p.pitchBossSafetyCamp(fresh)
+			campBlock, campDecision, campPitched = p.pitchBossSafetyCamp(fresh, now)
 		}
 	} else if r.reason != stopEnded && r.reason != stopComplete &&
 		r.reason != stopBlocked && r.reason != stopFork {
 		if fresh, ferr := getExpedition(e.ID); ferr == nil && fresh != nil &&
 			fresh.Status == ExpeditionStatusActive {
-			campBlock, campDecision, campPitched = p.maybeAutoCamp(fresh)
+			campBlock, campDecision, campPitched = p.maybeAutoCamp(fresh, now)
 		}
 	}
 	_ = autoCampBroken // hint reserved for downstream digest tweaks

internal/plugin/expedition_sim.go

@@ -282,9 +282,27 @@ type SimResult struct {
 	// without re-running the matrix. Populated from combat_sessions
 	// rows + their TurnLog at end-of-run.
 	Combats []SimCombatSummary
+	// DaySnapshots traces HP/SU/threat/rooms at every day rollover
+	// (Night camp) plus the start (Day 0) and the final state. Used by
+	// D7-c long-expedition baselining to see how the trajectory bends
+	// across multi-day runs without scrubbing the log.
+	DaySnapshots []SimDaySnapshot
 	Log          []SimLogEntry
 }
 
+// SimDaySnapshot is a point-in-time projection of the sim state at a
+// day-rollover boundary. Day 0 is captured at expedition start; every
+// subsequent entry lands right after a Night camp lands (CurrentDay
+// already incremented). A final entry is appended at end-of-run.
+type SimDaySnapshot struct {
+	Day       int
+	HPCurrent int
+	HPMax     int
+	Supplies  float32
+	Threat    int
+	Rooms     int // cumulative autopilot rooms walked at snapshot time
+}
+
 // SimCombatSummary is a compact per-fight trace: the entry stats, the
 // per-round damage dealt by each side, and the outcome. Lets J-phase
 // analysis ask "did Fighter L12 hit the manor boss often enough?"
@@ -350,17 +368,30 @@ type SimLogEntry struct {
 	TS      time.Time
 }
 
+// simWalkInterval — how much synthetic time each autopilot walk
+// represents. Matches the production autorun cooldown so the
+// nightCampWindow check inside decideAutopilotCamp lands on the same
+// real-time cadence: ~8 walks ≈ 16h ≈ one Night-camp rollover.
+const simWalkInterval = autoRunCooldown
+
 // RunExpedition starts an expedition for uid in zoneID and loops the
 // autopilot walk (compact mode, so elite rooms auto-resolve inline)
-// until a hard stop fires. Between walks it fast-forwards the day
-// cycle so multi-day expeditions complete without real-time waits.
+// until a hard stop fires. Between walks it advances a synthetic clock
+// (simWalkInterval per walk) and calls into the same maybeAutoCamp /
+// pitchBossSafetyCamp scheduler the production autorun ticker uses, so
+// HP-low mid-day rests + Night-camp rollovers fire under the sim.
 //
 // walkCap bounds the number of autopilot bursts as a safety net. Each
 // burst walks up to autopilotRoomCap rooms.
 //
+// maxDays, when > 0, stops the run once res.DayTicks reaches that count
+// — used by D7-c long-expedition baselining to bound multi-day runs by
+// synthetic day count rather than walk count. 0 leaves the run
+// unbounded by days (the walkCap safety net still applies).
+//
 // Pre-state: uid must own a synthetic character via BuildCharacter and
 // have a coin balance sufficient for outfitting (caller's responsibility).
-func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap int) (*SimResult, error) {
+func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap, maxDays int) (*SimResult, error) {
 	c, err := LoadDnDCharacter(uid)
 	if err != nil || c == nil {
 		return nil, fmt.Errorf("LoadDnDCharacter: %w", err)
@@ -375,7 +406,10 @@ func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap int) (*S
 	}
 
 	ctx := MessageContext{Sender: uid}
-	if err := s.P.handleDnDExpeditionCmd(ctx, "start "+string(zoneID)); err != nil {
+	// D5-b made a bare "start <zone>" return the loadout prompt without
+	// outfitting. Force the tier-max "heavy" preset so multi-day runs
+	// have enough supplies to actually exercise [[project-sim-event-anchored-broken]] rollovers.
+	if err := s.P.handleDnDExpeditionCmd(ctx, "start "+string(zoneID)+" heavy"); err != nil {
 		return res, fmt.Errorf("expedition start: %w", err)
 	}
 	exp, _ := getActiveExpedition(uid)
@@ -384,9 +418,18 @@ func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap int) (*S
 		return res, fmt.Errorf("expedition did not persist after start")
 	}
 	res.SUStart = exp.Supplies.Current
+	// Day-0 baseline so the snapshot stream always opens with a known
+	// starting state, even if the run halts before the first rollover.
+	s.captureDaySnapshot(res, exp, uid)
+
+	// Synthetic clock — anchored on the expedition's real start_date so
+	// nightCampWindow / nightSafetyNet comparisons against LastBriefingAt
+	// stay coherent with the rows the autopilot scheduler reads.
+	simNow := exp.StartDate
 
 	for i := 0; i < walkCap; i++ {
-		walk := s.P.runAutopilotWalk(ctx, autopilotRoomCap, true)
+		simNow = simNow.Add(simWalkInterval)
+		walk := s.P.runAutopilotWalk(ctx, autopilotRoomCap, true, false)
 		if walk.initErr != "" {
 			res.Outcome = "halted"
 			res.StopCode = "init:" + walk.initErr
@@ -467,28 +510,75 @@ func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap int) (*S
 		case stopBlocked:
 			res.Outcome = "blocked"
 			i = walkCap
+		case stopBossSafety:
+			// Compact autopilot bailed before the boss (HP/SU gate). Mirror
+			// the production autorun: force-pitch a rest camp, dwell, then
+			// break it so the next walk re-engages the boss.
+			fresh, _ := getActiveExpedition(uid)
+			if fresh == nil {
+				res.Outcome = "extracted"
+				i = walkCap
+				break
+			}
+			advanced, err := s.applyAutoCampBossSafety(fresh, &simNow)
+			if err != nil {
+				res.Outcome = "halted"
+				res.StopCode = "boss_safety_camp:" + err.Error()
+				i = walkCap
+				break
+			}
+			if advanced {
+				res.DayTicks++
+				if fresh2, _ := getActiveExpedition(uid); fresh2 != nil {
+					s.captureDaySnapshot(res, fresh2, uid)
+				}
+			}
+			if exp, _ = getActiveExpedition(uid); exp == nil {
+				res.Outcome = "extracted"
+				i = walkCap
+			}
+			if maxDays > 0 && res.DayTicks >= maxDays {
+				if res.Outcome == "" {
+					res.Outcome = "day_capped"
+				}
+				i = walkCap
+			}
 		default:
 			// stopOK / stopPreflight / stopHarvestCombat — soft stops.
-			// Fast-forward a day so the next walk has fresh supplies
-			// budgeted, HP that overnight camp may have healed, and
-			// threat drift recorded.
-			if exp, _ = getActiveExpedition(uid); exp == nil {
+			// Run the same camp scheduler the production autorun fires
+			// after every walk. With simNow past nightCampWindow the
+			// pitch is a Night camp and drives the day rollover; below
+			// that, an HP-low rest may fire mid-day.
+			fresh, _ := getActiveExpedition(uid)
+			if fresh == nil {
 				res.Outcome = "extracted"
 				i = walkCap
 				break
 			}
-			if err := s.TickDay(exp); err != nil {
+			advanced, err := s.applyAutoCamp(fresh, &simNow)
+			if err != nil {
 				res.Outcome = "halted"
-				res.StopCode = "tick:" + err.Error()
+				res.StopCode = "auto_camp:" + err.Error()
 				i = walkCap
 				break
 			}
+			if advanced {
 				res.DayTicks++
-			// TickDay may have force-extracted (starvation). Re-check.
+				if fresh2, _ := getActiveExpedition(uid); fresh2 != nil {
+					s.captureDaySnapshot(res, fresh2, uid)
+				}
+			}
+			// maybeAutoCamp's drift step may have force-extracted (starvation).
 			if exp, _ = getActiveExpedition(uid); exp == nil {
 				res.Outcome = "extracted"
 				i = walkCap
 			}
+			if maxDays > 0 && res.DayTicks >= maxDays {
+				if res.Outcome == "" {
+					res.Outcome = "day_capped"
+				}
+				i = walkCap
+			}
 		}
 	}
 	if res.Outcome == "" {
@@ -514,9 +604,38 @@ func (s *SimRunner) RunExpedition(uid id.UserID, zoneID ZoneID, walkCap int) (*S
 	}
 	res.YieldCount, res.YieldsByName = simMaterialYields(uid)
 	res.Combats = simCombatSummaries(uid)
+	// Final snapshot. Re-read the expedition so closed-run state is
+	// visible (extracted runs return nil from getActiveExpedition; the
+	// row is still on disk via mostRecentExpeditionID). If the
+	// expedition row is gone we synthesize from the cached SU/threat
+	// already on res so the snapshot stream always closes.
+	if exp2, _ := getActiveExpedition(uid); exp2 != nil {
+		s.captureDaySnapshot(res, exp2, uid)
+	} else if past := mostRecentExpeditionID(uid); past != "" {
+		if exp3, _ := getExpedition(past); exp3 != nil {
+			s.captureDaySnapshot(res, exp3, uid)
+		}
+	}
 	return res, nil
 }
 
+// captureDaySnapshot appends a SimDaySnapshot reflecting current state.
+// HP is read from the live character row; SU/threat/day from the live
+// expedition. Rooms is the running res.Rooms counter.
+func (s *SimRunner) captureDaySnapshot(res *SimResult, exp *Expedition, uid id.UserID) {
+	snap := SimDaySnapshot{
+		Day:      exp.CurrentDay,
+		Supplies: exp.Supplies.Current,
+		Threat:   exp.ThreatLevel,
+		Rooms:    res.Rooms,
+	}
+	if c, _ := LoadDnDCharacter(uid); c != nil {
+		snap.HPCurrent = c.HPCurrent
+		snap.HPMax = c.HPMax
+	}
+	res.DaySnapshots = append(res.DaySnapshots, snap)
+}
+
 // simCombatSummaries pulls every combat_sessions row for uid and folds
 // its TurnLog into a SimCombatSummary. AC values are inferred from the
 // RollAgainst column on attack events (the engine writes the defender's
@@ -743,6 +862,15 @@ func (s *SimRunner) simPickCombatAction(uid id.UserID, sess *CombatSession) (kin
 		}
 	}
 	if isSpellcaster(c) && !simMartialFirstClass(c.Class) {
+		// Cleric: Spiritual Weapon is a BuffSelf that fires a spectral
+		// bonus-action attack each round via SpiritWeaponProc/Dmg mods —
+		// simPickSpell skips BuffSelf entries by design, so a cleric
+		// otherwise never spends an L2 slot on it. Force the pick once
+		// per fight (BuffSpiritProc==0) so the picker doesn't pretend
+		// it's not a damage option.
+		if id := simPickSpiritualWeapon(c, uid, sess); id != "" {
+			return "cast", id
+		}
 		if id := simPickSpell(c, uid); id != "" {
 			return "cast", id
 		}
@@ -766,8 +894,58 @@ func simMartialFirstClass(class DnDClass) bool {
 	return false
 }
 
-// simPickSpell returns the spell ID a competent player would cast this
-// turn, or "" when no usable spell is available (forcing a !attack).
+// simPickSpiritualWeapon returns a !cast argument for Spiritual Weapon
+// when a cleric should open the fight with it: the buff is not already
+// active on the session, the spell is prepared, and some slot ≥ L2 is
+// available. Returns "" otherwise. The buff path in combat_cmd.go folds
+// into BuffSpiritProc/Dmg via applyBuffDelta, which the turn engine fires
+// each round via spiritWeaponStrike — so one cast is worth more than a
+// single L2 damage spell across a multi-round fight.
+//
+// Slot pick: lowest available slot ≥ 2. Upcasting is +1d8 per 2 slots
+// above 2nd, so spending a precious L5 to add a single d8 to the proc is
+// not worth burning the bigger slot's damage potential elsewhere; sim
+// behaves like a competent player and saves the high slot.
+func simPickSpiritualWeapon(c *DnDCharacter, uid id.UserID, sess *CombatSession) string {
+	if c == nil || c.Class != ClassCleric || sess == nil {
+		return ""
+	}
+	if sess.Statuses.BuffSpiritProc > 0 {
+		return ""
+	}
+	known, err := listKnownSpells(uid)
+	if err != nil {
+		return ""
+	}
+	prepared := false
+	for _, k := range known {
+		if k.SpellID == "spiritual_weapon" && k.Prepared {
+			prepared = true
+			break
+		}
+	}
+	if !prepared {
+		return ""
+	}
+	slots, _ := getSpellSlots(uid)
+	const simMaxSlot = 5
+	for sl := 2; sl <= simMaxSlot; sl++ {
+		pair, ok := slots[sl]
+		if !ok || pair[0]-pair[1] <= 0 {
+			continue
+		}
+		if sl == 2 {
+			return "spiritual_weapon"
+		}
+		return fmt.Sprintf("spiritual_weapon --upcast %d", sl)
+	}
+	return ""
+}
+
+// simPickSpell returns the spell argument a competent player would pass
+// to !cast this turn, or "" when no usable spell is available (forcing a
+// !attack). The return value is fed straight to handleCombatCastCmd, so
+// upcast picks come back as `"<spell_id> --upcast N"`.
 // Selection rules:
 //   - Only damage-effect spells (damage_attack / damage_save / damage_auto).
 //     Control/buff/heal are out (J2c sweep showed control scoring at
@@ -775,12 +953,13 @@ func simMartialFirstClass(class DnDClass) bool {
 //     no headroom worth the complexity). Healing is handled by the
 //     consumable-first branch in simPickCombatAction.
 //   - Reaction-cast spells are excluded (engine rejects them).
-//   - Non-cantrips require an available slot at their native level (no
-//     upcasting — preserves high slots for high-level spells).
-//   - Among feasible candidates, prefer higher slot level; tie-break on
+//   - For each prepared leveled spell, enumerate one candidate per
+//     available slot at level ≥ native (D8-b, aggressive upcasting).
+//     spellExpectedDamage handles the +1-die-per-slot-above-native
+//     scaling. Cantrips contribute one slot-0 candidate.
+//   - Among feasible candidates, prefer higher slot level (preserves
+//     high-slot supremacy and burns the big slots first); tie-break on
 //     expected damage from the dice string.
-//
-// Returns the spell ID for handleCombatCastCmd.
 func simPickSpell(c *DnDCharacter, uid id.UserID) string {
 	known, err := listKnownSpells(uid)
 	if err != nil || len(known) == 0 {
@@ -789,7 +968,8 @@ func simPickSpell(c *DnDCharacter, uid id.UserID) string {
 	slots, _ := getSpellSlots(uid)
 	type cand struct {
 		id          string
-		level  int
+		slot        int
+		nativeLevel int
 		expDmg      float64
 	}
 	var cands []cand
@@ -819,24 +999,81 @@ func simPickSpell(c *DnDCharacter, uid id.UserID) string {
 		if !onList {
 			continue
 		}
-		if sp.Level > 0 {
-			pair, ok := slots[sp.Level]
+		if sp.Level == 0 {
+			cands = append(cands, cand{id: sp.ID, slot: 0, nativeLevel: 0, expDmg: spellExpectedDamage(sp, 0, c.Level)})
+			continue
+		}
+		// simMaxSlot mirrors parseCombatCast's slot-level cap; anything
+		// above it would be rejected by the cast handler anyway.
+		const simMaxSlot = 5
+		for sl := sp.Level; sl <= simMaxSlot; sl++ {
+			pair, ok := slots[sl]
 			if !ok || pair[0]-pair[1] <= 0 {
 				continue
 			}
+			cands = append(cands, cand{
+				id:          sp.ID,
+				slot:        sl,
+				nativeLevel: sp.Level,
+				expDmg:      spellExpectedDamage(sp, sl, c.Level),
+			})
 		}
-		cands = append(cands, cand{id: sp.ID, level: sp.Level, expDmg: spellExpectedDamage(sp, sp.Level, c.Level)})
 	}
 	if len(cands) == 0 {
 		return ""
 	}
 	sort.Slice(cands, func(i, j int) bool {
-		if cands[i].level != cands[j].level {
-			return cands[i].level > cands[j].level
+		if cands[i].slot != cands[j].slot {
+			return cands[i].slot > cands[j].slot
 		}
 		return cands[i].expDmg > cands[j].expDmg
 	})
-	return cands[0].id
+	best := cands[0]
+	if best.slot > best.nativeLevel && best.nativeLevel > 0 {
+		return fmt.Sprintf("%s --upcast %d", best.id, best.slot)
+	}
+	return best.id
+}
+
+// applyAutoCamp drives the production camp scheduler under the sim's
+// synthetic clock: call maybeAutoCamp with *simNow, then if a camp
+// pitched, advance *simNow past minAutoCampDwell and break the camp so
+// the next walk can proceed. Returns whether the pitch was a Night
+// camp (i.e. a day rollover fired).
+func (s *SimRunner) applyAutoCamp(exp *Expedition, simNow *time.Time) (bool, error) {
+	_, d, ok := s.P.maybeAutoCamp(exp, *simNow)
+	if !ok {
+		return false, nil
+	}
+	return s.dwellAndBreakAutoCamp(exp, simNow, d.Night)
+}
+
+// applyAutoCampBossSafety mirrors applyAutoCamp for the stopBossSafety
+// gate — the camp is force-pitched even when the regular HP threshold
+// hasn't tripped (decideAutopilotCamp also blocks pitches at boss
+// rooms, which is exactly where this one belongs).
+func (s *SimRunner) applyAutoCampBossSafety(exp *Expedition, simNow *time.Time) (bool, error) {
+	_, d, ok := s.P.pitchBossSafetyCamp(exp, *simNow)
+	if !ok {
+		return false, nil
+	}
+	return s.dwellAndBreakAutoCamp(exp, simNow, d.Night)
+}
+
+// dwellAndBreakAutoCamp advances *simNow past minAutoCampDwell and
+// breaks the auto-pitched camp. Reloads exp from the DB first so the
+// camp row reflects the just-applied pitch. Returns the night flag
+// passed in (for the DayTicks counter).
+func (s *SimRunner) dwellAndBreakAutoCamp(exp *Expedition, simNow *time.Time, night bool) (bool, error) {
+	*simNow = simNow.Add(minAutoCampDwell)
+	fresh, err := getExpedition(exp.ID)
+	if err != nil {
+		return night, err
+	}
+	if fresh != nil {
+		_ = breakAutoCampIfDue(fresh, *simNow)
+	}
+	return night, nil
 }
 
 // TickDay drives one synthetic day rollover for exp: 21:00 recap of
@@ -847,6 +1084,13 @@ func simPickSpell(c *DnDCharacter, uid id.UserID) string {
 //
 // The clock is anchored on exp.StartDate so repeat calls advance one
 // real-day per call regardless of wall-clock time when the sim runs.
+//
+// Event-anchored expeditions (D2-b) own the rollover inside the
+// autopilot's night-camp pitch — RunExpedition exercises that path via
+// applyAutoCamp; TickDay is retained for tests and the legacy
+// non-event-anchored fallback. The event-anchored branch here short-
+// circuits to processNightCamp so callers that DO invoke TickDay on a
+// post-cutoff expedition still see one-call-one-day semantics.
 func (s *SimRunner) TickDay(exp *Expedition) error {
 	if exp == nil {
 		return fmt.Errorf("nil expedition")
@@ -868,15 +1112,53 @@ func (s *SimRunner) TickDay(exp *Expedition) error {
 	}
 
 	briefAt := dayBase.AddDate(0, 0, 1).Add(time.Duration(expeditionBriefingHour) * time.Hour).Add(30 * time.Second)
+	if isEventAnchored(exp) {
+		if err := s.tickEventAnchoredRollover(exp, briefAt); err != nil {
+			return err
+		}
+	} else {
 		if err := s.P.deliverBriefing(exp, briefAt); err != nil {
 			return fmt.Errorf("deliverBriefing: %w", err)
 		}
+	}
 	if fresh, _ := getExpedition(exp.ID); fresh != nil {
 		*exp = *fresh
 	}
 	return nil
 }
 
+// tickEventAnchoredRollover mirrors pitchAutopilotCamp with Night=true
+// for the sim: burn → optional Standard rest (if supplies cover it) →
+// drift → stamp last_briefing_at. No DM, no camp row left active (rest
+// is applied and immediately cleared the way pitchAutopilotCamp does
+// via applyCampRest + the next walk-tick break). On the no-rest branch
+// we still want burn/drift so supplies drain — matches a stalled
+// autopilot which D2-b's safety net force-fires via processNightCamp.
+func (s *SimRunner) tickEventAnchoredRollover(exp *Expedition, briefAt time.Time) error {
+	burn, err := s.P.nightRolloverBurn(exp)
+	if err != nil {
+		return fmt.Errorf("nightRolloverBurn: %w", err)
+	}
+	// Pitch a Standard rest if affordable, else skip (autopilot would
+	// also bail in low-SU; the burn already landed). Rough is the
+	// fallback so the sim isn't stuck at zero healing on tight budgets.
+	kind := CampTypeStandard
+	if exp.Supplies.Current < campSupplyCost[kind] {
+		kind = CampTypeRough
+	}
+	if exp.Supplies.Current >= campSupplyCost[kind] {
+		exp.Supplies.Current -= campSupplyCost[kind]
+		if err := updateSupplies(exp.ID, exp.Supplies); err != nil {
+			return fmt.Errorf("updateSupplies: %w", err)
+		}
+		applyCampRest(exp, kind)
+	}
+	drift := s.P.nightRolloverDrift(exp, briefAt)
+	_ = burn
+	_ = drift
+	return nil
+}
+
 // simLogEntries returns every dnd_expedition_log row for expID, oldest
 // first, projected into SimLogEntry.
 func simLogEntries(expID string) ([]SimLogEntry, error) {

internal/plugin/expedition_sim_test.go

@@ -0,0 +1,343 @@
+package plugin
+
+import (
+	"testing"
+	"time"
+
+	"maunium.net/go/mautrix/id"
+)
+
+// D7-b: applyAutoCamp drives maybeAutoCamp under the sim's synthetic
+// clock. When simNow is past the nightCampWindow on an event-anchored
+// expedition, the scheduler pitches a Night camp — current_day++,
+// supplies burn, last_briefing_at stamped. The helper then advances
+// simNow past minAutoCampDwell and breaks the camp so the next walk
+// proceeds.
+func TestSimRunner_ApplyAutoCamp_NightCampAdvancesDay(t *testing.T) {
+	setupZoneRunTestDB(t)
+	uid := id.UserID("@sim-applycamp-night:example")
+	campTestCharacter(t, uid, 3)
+	defer cleanupExpeditions(uid)
+
+	run, err := startZoneRun(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, 3, nil)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("startZoneRun: %v", err)
+	}
+	exp, err := startExpedition(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, run.RunID,
+		ExpeditionSupplies{Current: 20, Max: 20, DailyBurn: 2, HarshMod: 1})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	useEventAnchored(t, exp)
+
+	sim := &SimRunner{P: &AdventurePlugin{}}
+	// Park simNow past the night-camp window so decideAutopilotCamp
+	// flags Night=true on a healthy character.
+	simNow := exp.StartDate.Add(nightCampWindow + time.Hour)
+	startDay := exp.CurrentDay
+	startSU := exp.Supplies.Current
+	before := simNow
+
+	night, err := sim.applyAutoCamp(exp, &simNow)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("applyAutoCamp: %v", err)
+	}
+	if !night {
+		t.Fatal("expected Night=true beyond nightCampWindow")
+	}
+	if simNow.Sub(before) < minAutoCampDwell {
+		t.Errorf("simNow advanced %v, want >= %v", simNow.Sub(before), minAutoCampDwell)
+	}
+
+	got, _ := getExpedition(exp.ID)
+	if got == nil {
+		t.Fatal("expedition missing after night camp")
+	}
+	if got.CurrentDay != startDay+1 {
+		t.Errorf("CurrentDay = %d, want %d", got.CurrentDay, startDay+1)
+	}
+	if got.Supplies.Current >= startSU {
+		t.Errorf("Supplies.Current = %v, want < %v (burn should have landed)", got.Supplies.Current, startSU)
+	}
+	if got.Camp != nil && got.Camp.Active {
+		t.Errorf("camp should have been broken after dwell, got %+v", got.Camp)
+	}
+}
+
+// HP-low mid-day rest: under nightCampWindow with a hurt character,
+// maybeAutoCamp pitches a Standard camp (cleared room → standard) but
+// doesn't advance the day. HP gets restored by applyCampRest; DayTicks
+// stays untouched.
+func TestSimRunner_ApplyAutoCamp_HPLowMidDayRest(t *testing.T) {
+	setupZoneRunTestDB(t)
+	uid := id.UserID("@sim-applycamp-hp:example")
+	campTestCharacter(t, uid, 3)
+	c, _ := LoadDnDCharacter(uid)
+	c.HPCurrent = 1 // far below autoCampHPPct (55%)
+	_ = SaveDnDCharacter(c)
+	defer cleanupExpeditions(uid)
+
+	run, err := startZoneRun(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, 3, nil)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("startZoneRun: %v", err)
+	}
+	exp, err := startExpedition(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, run.RunID,
+		ExpeditionSupplies{Current: 10, Max: 10, DailyBurn: 1, HarshMod: 1})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	useEventAnchored(t, exp)
+
+	sim := &SimRunner{P: &AdventurePlugin{}}
+	// simNow well inside the active-day window — no Night pitch.
+	simNow := exp.StartDate.Add(2 * time.Hour)
+	startDay := exp.CurrentDay
+	startHP := c.HPCurrent
+
+	night, err := sim.applyAutoCamp(exp, &simNow)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("applyAutoCamp: %v", err)
+	}
+	if night {
+		t.Error("expected non-Night pitch within active-day window")
+	}
+
+	got, _ := getExpedition(exp.ID)
+	if got == nil {
+		t.Fatal("expedition missing")
+	}
+	if got.CurrentDay != startDay {
+		t.Errorf("CurrentDay = %d, want %d (no day advance on HP rest)", got.CurrentDay, startDay)
+	}
+	c2, _ := LoadDnDCharacter(uid)
+	if c2 == nil || c2.HPCurrent <= startHP {
+		t.Errorf("HPCurrent = %v, want > %v (rest should heal)", c2.HPCurrent, startHP)
+	}
+	if got.Camp != nil && got.Camp.Active {
+		t.Errorf("camp should have been broken after dwell, got %+v", got.Camp)
+	}
+}
+
+// stopBossSafety: pitchBossSafetyCamp force-pitches a camp regardless
+// of the regular HP threshold or the boss-room block in decideAutopilotCamp.
+// applyAutoCampBossSafety wraps that and runs the same dwell/break dance.
+func TestSimRunner_ApplyAutoCampBossSafety_PitchesAndHeals(t *testing.T) {
+	setupZoneRunTestDB(t)
+	uid := id.UserID("@sim-bosssafety:example")
+	campTestCharacter(t, uid, 3)
+	c, _ := LoadDnDCharacter(uid)
+	// HP at 80% — above autoCampHPPct so maybeAutoCamp would NOT fire,
+	// but the boss-safety path should still pitch.
+	c.HPCurrent = (c.HPMax * 80) / 100
+	if c.HPCurrent < 1 {
+		c.HPCurrent = 1
+	}
+	_ = SaveDnDCharacter(c)
+	defer cleanupExpeditions(uid)
+
+	run, err := startZoneRun(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, 3, nil)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("startZoneRun: %v", err)
+	}
+	exp, err := startExpedition(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, run.RunID,
+		ExpeditionSupplies{Current: 5, Max: 5, DailyBurn: 1, HarshMod: 1})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	useEventAnchored(t, exp)
+
+	sim := &SimRunner{P: &AdventurePlugin{}}
+	simNow := exp.StartDate.Add(2 * time.Hour)
+	startSU := exp.Supplies.Current
+	startHP := c.HPCurrent
+	before := simNow
+
+	if _, err := sim.applyAutoCampBossSafety(exp, &simNow); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("applyAutoCampBossSafety: %v", err)
+	}
+	if simNow.Sub(before) < minAutoCampDwell {
+		t.Errorf("simNow advanced %v, want >= %v", simNow.Sub(before), minAutoCampDwell)
+	}
+
+	got, _ := getExpedition(exp.ID)
+	if got == nil {
+		t.Fatal("expedition missing after boss-safety pitch")
+	}
+	if got.Supplies.Current >= startSU {
+		t.Errorf("Supplies.Current = %v, want < %v (camp cost should have debited)", got.Supplies.Current, startSU)
+	}
+	c2, _ := LoadDnDCharacter(uid)
+	if c2 == nil || c2.HPCurrent <= startHP {
+		t.Errorf("HPCurrent = %v, want > %v (rest should heal)", c2.HPCurrent, startHP)
+	}
+	if got.Camp != nil && got.Camp.Active {
+		t.Errorf("camp should have been broken after dwell, got %+v", got.Camp)
+	}
+}
+
+// No trigger → no pitch: healthy HP, fresh simNow, no region cleared.
+// maybeAutoCamp should bail and applyAutoCamp returns (false, nil).
+func TestSimRunner_ApplyAutoCamp_NoTriggerIsNoop(t *testing.T) {
+	setupZoneRunTestDB(t)
+	uid := id.UserID("@sim-applycamp-noop:example")
+	campTestCharacter(t, uid, 3)
+	defer cleanupExpeditions(uid)
+
+	exp, err := startExpedition(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, "",
+		ExpeditionSupplies{Current: 10, Max: 10, DailyBurn: 1, HarshMod: 1})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	useEventAnchored(t, exp)
+
+	sim := &SimRunner{P: &AdventurePlugin{}}
+	simNow := exp.StartDate.Add(time.Hour)
+	before := simNow
+
+	night, err := sim.applyAutoCamp(exp, &simNow)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("applyAutoCamp: %v", err)
+	}
+	if night {
+		t.Error("expected no Night pitch from no-op call")
+	}
+	if !simNow.Equal(before) {
+		t.Errorf("simNow advanced %v on no-op call", simNow.Sub(before))
+	}
+}
+
+// D7-a: SimRunner.TickDay must advance event-anchored expeditions. The
+// production deliverBriefing branch reads wall-clock time for its safety-
+// net check, so the sim path short-circuits to processNightCamp + a
+// Standard rest. Without this fix, CurrentDay never increments under
+// D2-b and supply-burn baselining is impossible.
+func TestSimRunner_TickDay_EventAnchoredAdvancesDay(t *testing.T) {
+	setupZoneRunTestDB(t)
+	uid := id.UserID("@sim-tickday-evt:example")
+	defer cleanupExpeditions(uid)
+
+	exp, err := startExpedition(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, "",
+		ExpeditionSupplies{Current: 20, Max: 20, DailyBurn: 2, HarshMod: 1})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	useEventAnchored(t, exp)
+
+	sim := &SimRunner{P: &AdventurePlugin{}}
+	for i := 0; i < 3; i++ {
+		fresh, _ := getExpedition(exp.ID)
+		if fresh == nil {
+			t.Fatalf("expedition vanished after %d ticks", i)
+		}
+		if err := sim.TickDay(fresh); err != nil {
+			t.Fatalf("TickDay #%d: %v", i+1, err)
+		}
+	}
+
+	got, _ := getExpedition(exp.ID)
+	if got == nil {
+		t.Fatal("expedition missing after ticks")
+	}
+	if got.CurrentDay != 4 {
+		t.Errorf("CurrentDay = %d, want 4 after 3 ticks (started at 1)", got.CurrentDay)
+	}
+	if got.Supplies.Current >= 20 {
+		t.Errorf("Supplies.Current = %v, want < 20 (burn should have landed)", got.Supplies.Current)
+	}
+	if got.LastBriefingAt == nil {
+		t.Fatal("LastBriefingAt nil — drift stamp didn't fire")
+	}
+	// Each tick stamps last_briefing_at at the synthetic briefAt
+	// (start_date + N days at 06:00:30). After 3 ticks the stamp should
+	// be at least 2 days past start_date.
+	if got.LastBriefingAt.Sub(exp.StartDate) < 48*time.Hour {
+		t.Errorf("LastBriefingAt %v not advanced enough vs start %v",
+			got.LastBriefingAt, exp.StartDate)
+	}
+}
+
+// Low-SU branch: a tight supplies budget shouldn't crash the sim — the
+// rest is skipped, but burn/drift still fire so the day advances. This
+// mirrors prod where a stalled autopilot in a low-SU state has its
+// rollover force-fired by the safety net without a rest.
+func TestSimRunner_TickDay_EventAnchoredLowSupplies(t *testing.T) {
+	setupZoneRunTestDB(t)
+	uid := id.UserID("@sim-tickday-lowsu:example")
+	defer cleanupExpeditions(uid)
+
+	exp, err := startExpedition(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, "",
+		// 0.5 SU is below Rough camp cost (1 SU) but above zero, so the
+		// rest branch is skipped while burn still proceeds.
+		ExpeditionSupplies{Current: 0.5, Max: 20, DailyBurn: 0.2, HarshMod: 1})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	useEventAnchored(t, exp)
+	// Pin supplies low after start (startExpedition may reset them).
+	exp.Supplies.Current = 0.5
+	if err := updateSupplies(exp.ID, exp.Supplies); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+
+	sim := &SimRunner{P: &AdventurePlugin{}}
+	if err := sim.TickDay(exp); err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("TickDay: %v", err)
+	}
+	got, _ := getExpedition(exp.ID)
+	if got == nil {
+		// Forced extraction from starvation is acceptable — the day still
+		// advanced before extraction, which is what matters for the sim.
+		return
+	}
+	if got.CurrentDay < 2 {
+		t.Errorf("CurrentDay = %d, want >= 2", got.CurrentDay)
+	}
+}
+
+// D7-c: captureDaySnapshot must record the current expedition's day,
+// supplies, and threat plus the character's live HP into res.DaySnapshots.
+// Used by RunExpedition to trace state at every day rollover for
+// long-expedition baselining; verified here in isolation since
+// RunExpedition end-to-end isn't covered by package tests.
+func TestSimRunner_CaptureDaySnapshot_PopulatesFields(t *testing.T) {
+	setupZoneRunTestDB(t)
+	uid := id.UserID("@sim-snap:example")
+	campTestCharacter(t, uid, 3)
+	defer cleanupExpeditions(uid)
+
+	exp, err := startExpedition(uid, ZoneGoblinWarrens, "",
+		ExpeditionSupplies{Current: 12, Max: 20, DailyBurn: 2, HarshMod: 1})
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	exp.CurrentDay = 3
+	exp.ThreatLevel = 7
+	if err := updateSupplies(exp.ID, exp.Supplies); err != nil {
+		t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+	c, _ := LoadDnDCharacter(uid)
+
+	sim := &SimRunner{P: &AdventurePlugin{}}
+	res := &SimResult{Rooms: 9}
+	sim.captureDaySnapshot(res, exp, uid)
+
+	if len(res.DaySnapshots) != 1 {
+		t.Fatalf("DaySnapshots len = %d, want 1", len(res.DaySnapshots))
+	}
+	snap := res.DaySnapshots[0]
+	if snap.Day != 3 {
+		t.Errorf("Day = %d, want 3", snap.Day)
+	}
+	if snap.Supplies != 12 {
+		t.Errorf("Supplies = %v, want 12", snap.Supplies)
+	}
+	if snap.Threat != 7 {
+		t.Errorf("Threat = %d, want 7", snap.Threat)
+	}
+	if snap.Rooms != 9 {
+		t.Errorf("Rooms = %d, want 9", snap.Rooms)
+	}
+	if snap.HPCurrent != c.HPCurrent || snap.HPMax != c.HPMax {
+		t.Errorf("HP = %d/%d, want %d/%d", snap.HPCurrent, snap.HPMax, c.HPCurrent, c.HPMax)
+	}
+}