gogobee/gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md

Expedition Difficulty Tuning Pass

Started 2026-05-15, after the Phase D audit close-out. Sibling to the class-balance pass (gogobee_class_balance.md) — same Monte-Carlo philosophy, different target metric.

Class balance answers "is my class viable?" (parity between classes vs. the same monster tier). This pass answers "is the dungeon fair?" (does a tier-appropriate character complete a tier-N expedition at the expected rate?).

Same combat engine (simulateCombatWithRNG), orthogonal knobs.

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Method

Sim harness, not telemetry-first. A new internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_balance.go will run thousands of seeded expeditions through the real autopilot / threat / encounter / combat code and report:

• completion %
• death %
• median days-to-extract
• median threat at extract
• supply curve (% expeditions that hit Rationing / Severe / Starvation)
• combat-encounter count per run
• coin/XP earned

The harness produces these per (zone, player-level) cell; the regression test asserts the per-tier completion band.

Tier target band (steered by feedback_difficulty_target "relatively easy but not too easy", and reflecting that expeditions are multi-day commitments players plan around — losing one should sting but not feel arbitrary):

Tier	Target completion %	Acceptable band
T1	80%	70–90%
T2	72%	62–82%
T3	65%	55–75%
T4	55%	45–65%
T5	45%	35–55%

Bands are ±10pp around the centerline. Sim is asserted against the band, not the centerline (no overfit). Player-level for each cell = "tier appropriate" per the class-balance kit ladder: T1 → L1-4, T2 → L3-7, T3 → L5-10, T4 → L7-15, T5 → L10-20 (median level per tier).

Out of scope:

• Per-encounter combat parity (covered by gogobee_class_balance.md).
• Arena difficulty (separate system, separate balance).
• Live telemetry tables — deferred; sim is the primary truth source for this pass. We can add counters later if the sim diverges from observed live numbers.

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Phases

Each phase ≈ 1 session, ships green + committed.

Phase 0 — sim harness spike

Build the minimum harness:

• New file internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_balance.go exposing simulateExpeditionWithRNG(profile, seed) → result struct.
• Critical de-risk: replay the autopilot deterministically. The ticker is wall-clock driven (dnd_expedition_cycle.go:38,56 at 06:00 / 21:00 UTC; expedition_ambient.go:22 every 3h). Harness must inject a virtual clock or call the per-phase advance functions directly (deliverBriefing, deliverRecap, ambient nudge, harvest autopilot) in tight loop, bypassing the goroutine ticker. Settle the clock-injection seam in Phase 0 — if this is messy, the whole pass collapses.
• DB-touching layers stubbed/in-memory (same trick as class-balance Phase 0).
• Sanity test: one cell — e.g. T2 zone at L5 Fighter — runs to completion or death deterministically, returns sensible numbers, 100 trials in <10s.

Exit: TestExpeditionBalance_Phase0_Spike green; commit.

Phase 1 — full matrix measurement

• Build the cell list: every zone × tier-appropriate-level. Per the exploration map, expeditions span zones tagged T1–T5; we measure every zone at its centerline level.
• 200 trials/cell (same density as class-balance Phase 1).
• Matrix log: per-cell completion%, death%, median days, median extract-threat, supply-curve histogram.
• Per-tier mean + spread diagnostic across zones (analogue of the class-balance per-(level,tier) spread diagnostic).
• TestClassBalance_Phase1_FullMatrix-style permanent test, but only gating on harness-broken pathologies for now (0% completion anywhere at T1, 100% completion at T5).

Exit: matrix numbers logged; commit with "Phase 1 baseline" note.

Phase 2b — wounded-entrant nick clamp (shipped)

clampSurpriseNick(rawNick, hpCurrent, hpMax) in dnd_expedition_combat.go: at full HP the raw nick stands; when wounded the nick is capped at max(1, hpCurrent/5) so a single nick on a low-HP fighter can't shave more than ~20% of remaining HP. The existing "nick can't KO" guard is preserved.

Motivation came from the post-2a tier-lethality trace (TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_TierLethality): every tier had a fingerprint where an over-tier elite left the fighter at 25-50% HP + retreat, then the next standard's surprise nick (3-7 HP, often exceeding the fighter's headroom) pre-empted the combat engine entirely. Capping the wounded-entrant nick separates that cascade from genuine elite-one-shot deaths so Phase 2c can tune the elites with a clean read.

Matrix delta vs Phase 2a baseline is small (median encs +0.1-0.2 per cell) — completion% still 0% across every tier — but the tier-lethality trace stretched substantively: T1 trial 0 went 5 → 8 encs / 5 → 7 days; T3 trial 1 ran 18 → 10 encs but visibly survived multiple chained interrupts at low HP that pre-2b would have ended on the nick alone. The remaining deaths are now legible as elite one-shot fights on fresh entries (Hobgoblin Warchief, Green Hag, Roper, Young Red Dragon) — that's the Phase 2c roster signal.

Tuning surface: the /5 divisor in clampSurpriseNick is the wounded-fighter lethality knob.

Phase 2 lever sweep (shipped) — negative result

Before adding Phase 2c, the two surfaced knobs (retreatThreatBump, clampSurpriseNick divisor) got swept across a full 3×4 grid (bump ∈ {2, 5, 10} × divisor ∈ {3, 5, 8, 12}) at 200 trials/cell across every zone in the matrix. Wired via expeditionBalanceProfile.{RetreatThreatBumpOverride, SurpriseNickDivisorOverride} threaded into expeditionHarness; the live caller (runHarvestInterrupt) is untouched.

Sweep file: TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep in expedition_balance_test.go. -short skips.

Outcome: every one of the 24,000 trial-cells reports 0.0% completion / ~100% death. The two knobs are inert on the headline metric — even the gentlest combo (b=2, d=12) cannot lift any tier off the floor. Median days-to-end stays at 2–3 across the grid with median 2.6–7.3 encounters before death.

Read: confirms the post-2b tier-lethality trace — deaths are fresh-entry elite one-shots (Warchief @ HP19/20, Hag @ HP41, Roper, Young Red Dragon), not chained-interrupt cascades. The two levers target the cascade path that's now mostly resolved; they have no remaining death-fraction to convert. Phase 2c (roster dilution) is justified rather than premature.

Phase 2c — roster gate (next)

Promote softer mid-tier monsters to IsElite: true in zones whose elite pool is a single tier-disproportionate boss (warchief / hag / roper / dragon are all SpawnWeight=1 alone in their elite pool, so an InterruptElite bracket roll = 100% pick of the over-tier boss). Diluting the elite pool with one or two softer alternates at higher SpawnWeight lets the fighter sometimes face a winnable elite, without removing the over-tier boss as a possible spawn.

Stat-block tuning of the bosses themselves is off-limits per the Phase 3 constraint (bestiary is shared across systems).

Phase 2 — global lever tuning

Tune the knobs that affect every zone uniformly:

• Daily threat drift (dnd_expedition_threat.go:87 — base +3/day).
• Threat band thresholds (Quiet/Stirring/Alert/Hostile/Siege — dnd_expedition_threat.go:70-82).
• Supply burn multipliers (dnd_expedition_supplies.go:43-56 — T1×1 → T5×3).
• Surprise-round damage floor (dnd_expedition_combat.go:184).
• Encounter bracket thresholds (dnd_expedition_combat.go:39-44 None/Noise/Standard/Elite/Patrol).
• Camp mods (dnd_expedition_night.go:85-92).

Goal: every tier centerline lands within ±5pp of target. Bands stay ±10pp.

Exit: test asserts the ±10pp band per tier; commit.

Phase 3 — per-zone outlier pass

After globals settle, the matrix will name outlier zones — tiers where one zone reads dramatically off-band while sibling zones are fine. Per-zone tools:

• SpawnWeight / IsElite flags in zone rosters (dnd_zone.go:100).
• Boss stat tuning in zone definitions.
• Resource DCs (affects harvest interrupt roll).
• Per-zone loot table density (downstream economy impact — flag if significant).

Constraint: do not touch monster stat blocks (those belong to the bestiary, shared across systems). Tune the roster + zone-level knobs, not the monsters themselves.

Exit: all per-zone cells within band; commit.

Phase 4 — optional MAD / second-order

If post-Phase-3 the bands hold but feel wrong subjectively (e.g. "median days too short", "no expedition ever hits Siege"), add a secondary assertion on median-days-to-extract or extract-threat. Phase 3 may also surface a request to expose a difficulty knob to operators (env var or admin command); scope that here if it comes up.

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Open questions

• Should the babysit perk be on or off in the sim? Pick one and document; both as separate cells doubles matrix size for diminishing insight. Default proposed: off, since it's a discovery-mechanic buff (feedback_npc_buffs_are_secret) — players who find it earn extra margin, not the baseline.
• Pardon proc (33% @ chat 20+): include in sim, but at a fixed chat-level assumption (chat 15 = no pardon, since most fresh runs haven't hit the threshold). Decide in Phase 0.
• Sovereign reprieve: skip in sim — it's gated on full set equipped and is a one-shot per cooldown. End-game-only; not part of the baseline difficulty.
• Multi-region zones (E4): does the sim need to walk all regions in one expedition, or pick one region per run? Probably full walk for realism. Settle in Phase 0.
• DM mood: starts at 50; drifts via combat outcomes. Let it drift naturally in the sim, do not pin.

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Deliverables checklist

• internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_balance.go (sim harness)
• TestExpeditionBalance_Phase0_Spike
• TestExpeditionBalance_Phase1_FullMatrix (becomes the permanent regression gate after Phase 2 tightens it)
• Tuning commits per phase
• One-line update to MEMORY.md + project memory pointer