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Phase 2 (sweep): lever-tuning sweep, negative result

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Sweep the two knobs surfaced by Phases 2a/2b — retreatThreatBump
and clampSurpriseNick's wounded-entrant divisor — across a full
3×4 grid (bump ∈ {2, 5, 10} × divisor ∈ {3, 5, 8, 12}) at 200
trials/cell across every matrix zone.

Wiring is harness-only: clampSurpriseNick keeps its live shape and
delegates to a new clampSurpriseNickD(divisor) variant; the harness
profile gains RetreatThreatBumpOverride/SurpriseNickDivisorOverride
fields threaded onto expeditionHarness; resolvedRetreatBump and
resolvedNickDivisor pick override-or-live. Zero on either field
falls back to the shipped value so live runHarvestInterrupt is
untouched.

Sweep test: TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep, -short skipped,
mirrors Phase2_CadenceCalibration's per-tier digest shape.

Outcome: across 24,000 trial-cells (12 lever combos × 10 zones
× 200 trials), every cell reports 0.0% completion / ~100% death.
The knobs are inert on the headline metric — even (b=2, d=12)
can't lift any tier off the floor. Confirms the post-2b
tier-lethality trace: remaining deaths are fresh-entry elite
one-shots (Warchief, Hag, Roper, Young Red Dragon), not chained-
interrupt cascades. Justifies Phase 2c (roster dilution) rather
than further tuning of these two levers.

Plan doc updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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prosolis
2026-05-15 10:39:45 -07:00
parent 159daf8fc8
commit 8cdd64b383
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gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md
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@@ -130,6 +130,32 @@ Roper, Young Red Dragon) — that's the Phase 2c roster signal.
**Tuning surface:** the `/5` divisor in `clampSurpriseNick` is the
wounded-fighter lethality knob.
### Phase 2 lever sweep (shipped) — negative result
Before adding Phase 2c, the two surfaced knobs (`retreatThreatBump`,
`clampSurpriseNick` divisor) got swept across a full 3×4 grid
(bump ∈ {2, 5, 10} × divisor ∈ {3, 5, 8, 12}) at 200 trials/cell
across every zone in the matrix. Wired via
`expeditionBalanceProfile.{RetreatThreatBumpOverride,
SurpriseNickDivisorOverride}` threaded into `expeditionHarness`;
the live caller (`runHarvestInterrupt`) is untouched.
Sweep file: `TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep` in
`expedition_balance_test.go`. `-short` skips.
**Outcome:** every one of the 24,000 trial-cells reports 0.0%
completion / ~100% death. The two knobs are inert on the headline
metric — even the gentlest combo (b=2, d=12) cannot lift any tier
off the floor. Median days-to-end stays at 2–3 across the grid
with median 2.6–7.3 encounters before death.
**Read:** confirms the post-2b tier-lethality trace — deaths are
fresh-entry elite one-shots (Warchief @ HP19/20, Hag @ HP41, Roper,
Young Red Dragon), not chained-interrupt cascades. The two levers
target the cascade path that's now mostly resolved; they have no
remaining death-fraction to convert. Phase 2c (roster dilution) is
justified rather than premature.
### Phase 2c — roster gate (next)
Promote softer mid-tier monsters to `IsElite: true` in zones whose