Phase 2 (sweep): lever-tuning sweep, negative result

Sweep the two knobs surfaced by Phases 2a/2b — retreatThreatBump
and clampSurpriseNick's wounded-entrant divisor — across a full
3×4 grid (bump ∈ {2, 5, 10} × divisor ∈ {3, 5, 8, 12}) at 200
trials/cell across every matrix zone.

Wiring is harness-only: clampSurpriseNick keeps its live shape and
delegates to a new clampSurpriseNickD(divisor) variant; the harness
profile gains RetreatThreatBumpOverride/SurpriseNickDivisorOverride
fields threaded onto expeditionHarness; resolvedRetreatBump and
resolvedNickDivisor pick override-or-live. Zero on either field
falls back to the shipped value so live runHarvestInterrupt is
untouched.

Sweep test: TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep, -short skipped,
mirrors Phase2_CadenceCalibration's per-tier digest shape.

Outcome: across 24,000 trial-cells (12 lever combos × 10 zones
× 200 trials), every cell reports 0.0% completion / ~100% death.
The knobs are inert on the headline metric — even (b=2, d=12)
can't lift any tier off the floor. Confirms the post-2b
tier-lethality trace: remaining deaths are fresh-entry elite
one-shots (Warchief, Hag, Roper, Young Red Dragon), not chained-
interrupt cascades. Justifies Phase 2c (roster dilution) rather
than further tuning of these two levers.

Plan doc updated.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md

@@ -130,6 +130,32 @@ Roper, Young Red Dragon) — that's the Phase 2c roster signal.
 **Tuning surface:** the `/5` divisor in `clampSurpriseNick` is the
 wounded-fighter lethality knob.
 
+### Phase 2 lever sweep (shipped) — negative result
+
+Before adding Phase 2c, the two surfaced knobs (`retreatThreatBump`,
+`clampSurpriseNick` divisor) got swept across a full 3×4 grid
+(bump ∈ {2, 5, 10} × divisor ∈ {3, 5, 8, 12}) at 200 trials/cell
+across every zone in the matrix. Wired via
+`expeditionBalanceProfile.{RetreatThreatBumpOverride,
+SurpriseNickDivisorOverride}` threaded into `expeditionHarness`;
+the live caller (`runHarvestInterrupt`) is untouched.
+
+Sweep file: `TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep` in
+`expedition_balance_test.go`. `-short` skips.
+
+**Outcome:** every one of the 24,000 trial-cells reports 0.0%
+completion / ~100% death. The two knobs are inert on the headline
+metric — even the gentlest combo (b=2, d=12) cannot lift any tier
+off the floor. Median days-to-end stays at 2–3 across the grid
+with median 2.6–7.3 encounters before death.
+
+**Read:** confirms the post-2b tier-lethality trace — deaths are
+fresh-entry elite one-shots (Warchief @ HP19/20, Hag @ HP41, Roper,
+Young Red Dragon), not chained-interrupt cascades. The two levers
+target the cascade path that's now mostly resolved; they have no
+remaining death-fraction to convert. Phase 2c (roster dilution) is
+justified rather than premature.
+
 ### Phase 2c — roster gate (next)
 
 Promote softer mid-tier monsters to `IsElite: true` in zones whose

internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_combat.go

@@ -232,14 +232,30 @@ func surpriseRoundNick(m DnDMonsterTemplate, tier int) int {
 //
 // Tuning surface: the /5 divisor is the wounded-fighter lethality knob.
 // Tighter (e.g. /10) is gentler; looser (/3) re-opens the cascade. See
-// gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md Phase 2b.
+// gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md Phase 2b. liveSurpriseNickDivisor
+// names the shipped value; the harness Phase 2 lever sweep
+// (TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep) calls clampSurpriseNickD
+// directly with alternate divisors. Live callers always go through
+// clampSurpriseNick.
+const liveSurpriseNickDivisor = 5
+
 func clampSurpriseNick(rawNick, hpCurrent, hpMax int) int {
+	return clampSurpriseNickD(rawNick, hpCurrent, hpMax, liveSurpriseNickDivisor)
+}
+
+// clampSurpriseNickD is the divisor-parameterized form used by the
+// sim harness lever sweep. divisor <= 0 falls back to the shipped
+// value so a zero-valued harness override behaves as "use live."
+func clampSurpriseNickD(rawNick, hpCurrent, hpMax, divisor int) int {
 	if rawNick <= 0 || hpCurrent <= 0 {
 		return 0
 	}
+	if divisor <= 0 {
+		divisor = liveSurpriseNickDivisor
+	}
 	nick := rawNick
 	if hpCurrent < hpMax {
-		cap := hpCurrent / 5
+		cap := hpCurrent / divisor
 		if cap < 1 {
 			cap = 1
 		}

internal/plugin/expedition_balance.go

@@ -97,6 +97,12 @@ type expeditionBalanceProfile struct {
 	// calibration sweep sets this per cell; everyday callers leave it
 	// zero.
 	HarvestRollsPerDay int
+	// Phase 2 lever overrides (sweep-only). Zero means "use the live
+	// shipped value." Wired into the harness day loop / runHarnessFight
+	// path; the live runHarvestInterrupt is untouched. See
+	// TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep.
+	RetreatThreatBumpOverride   int
+	SurpriseNickDivisorOverride int
 }
 
 // expeditionTrialResult is the outcome of one simulated expedition.
@@ -274,7 +280,7 @@ func (h *expeditionHarness) advanceExpeditionOneDay() expeditionTrialResult {
 					// dnd_expedition_combat.go (Phase 2). Run continues
 					// with carryover HP and a threat bump; the harvest
 					// slot's loot is just forfeit.
-					h.exp.ThreatLevel += retreatThreatBump
+					h.exp.ThreatLevel += h.resolvedRetreatBump()
 					if h.exp.ThreatLevel > 100 {
 						h.exp.ThreatLevel = 100
 					}
@@ -333,6 +339,25 @@ func (h *expeditionHarness) advanceExpeditionOneDay() expeditionTrialResult {
 	return expeditionTrialResult{}
 }
 
+// resolvedRetreatBump returns the per-harness lever override or the
+// shipped retreatThreatBump if no override is set. Zero is the "use
+// live" sentinel so the field's zero value remains safe.
+func (h *expeditionHarness) resolvedRetreatBump() int {
+	if h.retreatThreatBumpOverride > 0 {
+		return h.retreatThreatBumpOverride
+	}
+	return retreatThreatBump
+}
+
+// resolvedNickDivisor returns the per-harness override or the shipped
+// liveSurpriseNickDivisor. Same zero-sentinel contract as above.
+func (h *expeditionHarness) resolvedNickDivisor() int {
+	if h.surpriseNickDivisorOverride > 0 {
+		return h.surpriseNickDivisorOverride
+	}
+	return liveSurpriseNickDivisor
+}
+
 // terminate stamps the final trial result with shared bookkeeping
 // (days elapsed, threat at end, encounter count, HP%).
 func (h *expeditionHarness) terminate(reason string, completed, died, starved bool) expeditionTrialResult {
@@ -376,7 +401,11 @@ func (h *expeditionHarness) runHarnessFight(zone ZoneDefinition, elite bool) Com
 	// (clampSurpriseNick) that breaks the chained-interrupt death
 	// spiral. Mirror live exactly so the harness measures the same
 	// lever the live caller applies.
-	nick := clampSurpriseNick(surpriseRoundNick(monster, int(zone.Tier)), h.char.HPCurrent, h.char.HPMax)
+	nick := clampSurpriseNickD(
+		surpriseRoundNick(monster, int(zone.Tier)),
+		h.char.HPCurrent, h.char.HPMax,
+		h.resolvedNickDivisor(),
+	)
 	h.char.HPCurrent -= nick
 
 	player := buildHarnessPlayer(h.char)
@@ -487,6 +516,10 @@ type expeditionHarness struct {
 	rng          *harnessRNG
 	encounters   int
 	rollsPerDay  int // resolved from profile + default; never zero
+	// Lever overrides for the Phase 2 sweep. Zero on both fields ⇒
+	// live behavior (retreatThreatBump=5, /5 surprise-nick divisor).
+	retreatThreatBumpOverride   int
+	surpriseNickDivisorOverride int
 	// traceFight, if non-nil, is invoked once per fight inside
 	// runHarnessFight with a human-readable summary. Used by the
 	// Phase 2 lethality probe to spot whether the nick, the picked
@@ -531,10 +564,12 @@ func runExpeditionBalanceTrial(p expeditionBalanceProfile, seed uint64) expediti
 		rolls = harnessHarvestRollsPerDay
 	}
 	h := &expeditionHarness{
-		exp:         exp,
+		exp:                         exp,
-		char:        char,
+		char:                        char,
-		rng:         newHarnessRNG(seed),
+		rng:                         newHarnessRNG(seed),
-		rollsPerDay: rolls,
+		rollsPerDay:                 rolls,
+		retreatThreatBumpOverride:   p.RetreatThreatBumpOverride,
+		surpriseNickDivisorOverride: p.SurpriseNickDivisorOverride,
 	}
 	for {
 		res := h.advanceExpeditionOneDay()

internal/plugin/expedition_balance_test.go

@@ -495,6 +495,119 @@ func TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_TierLethality(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+// TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep is the tuning sweep the
+// plan doc's Phase 2 "global lever tuning" step calls for. Phases 2a
+// and 2b surfaced two knobs — retreatThreatBump (the threat penalty
+// on a wounded-but-alive break-off) and the surprise-nick wounded-
+// entrant divisor (the wounded-fighter lethality clamp) — but the
+// post-2b matrix still reads uniform 0% completion across every
+// tier. The question this test answers: do alternate settings of
+// those two knobs lift the centerline off the floor, and if so by
+// how much per tier?
+//
+// Shape mirrors Phase2_CadenceCalibration: one cell per tier (zone
+// at tier centerline level), Fighter, default cadence (rolls=4),
+// 200 trials, full grid of (bump × divisor). Diagnostic-only — no
+// assertions; the plan-doc test that gates the ±10pp band is added
+// after this sweep names a winner.
+//
+// Cost: 9 lever combos × |zones| × 200 trials. -short skips the
+// sweep entirely.
+func TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LeverSweep(t *testing.T) {
+	if testing.Short() {
+		t.Skip("phase 2 lever sweep is heavy; -short skips it")
+	}
+
+	const trialsPerCell = 200
+	const baseSeed uint64 = 0xB001E5
+
+	// Live values are bump=5 (Phase 2a) and divisor=5 (Phase 2b). The
+	// sweep walks two settings tighter (gentler) and one looser
+	// (harsher) for each knob so the live point sits in the middle of
+	// the grid and we can read the slope in both directions.
+	bumps := []int{2, 5, 10}        // threat-bump per retreat
+	divisors := []int{3, 5, 8, 12}  // /N wounded-nick divisor; bigger = gentler
+
+	t.Logf("phase2 lever sweep — %d zones × %d bump × %d divisor × %d trials, Fighter @ tier centerline (rolls=4)",
+		len(zoneOrder), len(bumps), len(divisors), trialsPerCell)
+
+	type tierStat struct {
+		cells int
+		sumC  float64
+		lo    float64
+		hi    float64
+	}
+
+	for _, bump := range bumps {
+		for _, div := range divisors {
+			tierStats := map[ZoneTier]*tierStat{}
+			t.Logf("─── retreatThreatBump=%d  surpriseNickDivisor=%d ───", bump, div)
+			for i, id := range zoneOrder {
+				zone, ok := getZone(id)
+				if !ok {
+					t.Fatalf("zoneOrder[%d]=%q not in registry", i, id)
+				}
+				level, ok := phase1TierCenterline[zone.Tier]
+				if !ok {
+					t.Fatalf("zone %q has tier %d with no phase1 centerline mapping", id, zone.Tier)
+				}
+				profile := expeditionBalanceProfile{
+					ZoneID:                      id,
+					Class:                       ClassFighter,
+					Level:                       level,
+					Supplies:                    makeSupplies(zone.Tier, SupplyPurchase{StandardPacks: 3}),
+					CampType:                    CampTypeStandard,
+					RetreatThreatBumpOverride:   bump,
+					SurpriseNickDivisorOverride: div,
+				}
+				// Seed schedule: Phase 1 base + cell offset, plus a
+				// lever-dependent salt so each (bump, div) cell sees a
+				// fresh RNG stream rather than aliasing earlier sweeps.
+				seed := baseSeed + uint64(i)*1_000_003 + uint64(bump)*101 + uint64(div)*7919
+				r := runExpeditionBalanceCell(profile, trialsPerCell, seed)
+
+				c := r.CompletionRate() * 100
+				t.Logf("CELL  b=%-2d d=%-2d  %-18s T%d  L%-2d  comp=%5.1f%% death=%5.1f%% starve=%5.1f%% med_days=%2d med_threat=%3d encs=%4.1f hp_left=%5.1f%%",
+					bump, div, zone.ID, zone.Tier, r.Profile.Level,
+					c,
+					r.DeathRate()*100,
+					float64(r.StarvedOuts)/float64(r.Trials)*100,
+					r.MedianDays, r.MedianThreatEnd,
+					r.AvgEncounters, r.AvgHPRemainingPct*100,
+				)
+
+				ts, ok := tierStats[zone.Tier]
+				if !ok {
+					ts = &tierStat{lo: math.Inf(1), hi: math.Inf(-1)}
+					tierStats[zone.Tier] = ts
+				}
+				ts.cells++
+				ts.sumC += c
+				if c < ts.lo {
+					ts.lo = c
+				}
+				if c > ts.hi {
+					ts.hi = c
+				}
+			}
+
+			tiers := []ZoneTier{
+				ZoneTierBeginner, ZoneTierApprentice, ZoneTierJourneyman,
+				ZoneTierVeteran, ZoneTierLegendary,
+			}
+			for _, tier := range tiers {
+				ts := tierStats[tier]
+				if ts == nil || ts.cells == 0 {
+					continue
+				}
+				mean := ts.sumC / float64(ts.cells)
+				t.Logf("TIER  b=%-2d d=%-2d  T%d  n=%d  mean_comp=%5.1f%%  spread=%5.1f pp",
+					bump, div, tier, ts.cells, mean, ts.hi-ts.lo)
+			}
+		}
+	}
+}
+
 // joinZones is a tiny helper kept local to the test file so the
 // per-tier log line reads in one logical chunk without pulling in
 // strings.Join's import for production code.