D&D: class-balance Phase 3 — off-tier caster lift (druid + sorcerer)

Design steer from user — "relatively easy but not too easy" — narrowed the
target: lift the embarrassing caster trailers on off-tier cells (a casual
player walking into a slightly too-hard dungeon underleveled) without
pushing the already-saturated in-tier ceiling.

Levers:
- Druid passive: was the only chassis with a purely defensive passive
  (5% DR, no offense), and it read it — L1/T1 mean 0.77 (lowest at the
  entry tier), L1/T2 0.04. Added a level + WIS-scaled FlatDmgStart burst,
  same shape as the Phase-2 Bard/Mage/Warlock pass. Kept the DR; no
  DamageBonus rider so high-tier ceilings stay flat.
- Sorcerer passive: burst base 3→5. Sorcerer was second-worst caster
  off-tier (L1/T2 0.10 vs Mage 0.27 pre-tune) despite a comparable stat
  line; the bump pulls it toward arcane-chassis parity.

Observed lifts:
- Druid L1/T1: 0.77 → 0.86 (+9pp) — chassis now functional at its
  intended tier
- L2/T2 cross-class spread: 77pp → 63pp; druid trailer 0.23 → 0.35
- L1/T1 spread: 23pp → 14pp

Off-tier diagnostic: added a focused log to TestClassBalance_Phase1_FullMatrix
that names the trailing class at each off-tier (lvl, tier) cell. Not
asserted — L1 in T2 is *supposed* to be hard, so the diagnostic is for
watching the gap, not the absolute number.

In-tier parity assertion (35pp band on the diagonal) still passes;
TestApplyClassPassives updated for the new druid/sorcerer FlatDmgStart
values; full plugin -short suite clean.

gogobee_class_balance.md

@@ -122,10 +122,39 @@ HP-remaining, and near-death-rate are logged as diagnostics, not asserted.
   through with weapon dice. Observed worst in-tier cell after tuning: L3/T2 at
   ~26pp, L1/T1 at ~24pp, L5/T3 at ~20pp; the 35pp band gives ~9pp Monte-Carlo
   headroom at 200 trials/cell. **← current**
-- **Phase 3 (if needed) — second-order.** Subclass-vs-subclass spread within a
-  class; the Paladin/Rogue MAD question if the data shows it bites. The L7/T5
-  cell (47pp spread, *off-tier*) is the most obvious next target if the
-  underleveled-cell experience needs lifting.
+- **Phase 3 — off-tier caster lift. Done.** Design steer ("relatively easy
+  but not too easy") narrowed the target: lift the embarrassing caster
+  trailers on off-tier cells (the casual player walking into a slightly
+  too-hard dungeon underleveled) *without* pushing the already-saturated
+  in-tier ceiling. Tuned levers:
+  - **Druid passive** (`dnd_passives.go`): the only class chassis with a
+    purely defensive passive (5% DR, no offense). Added a level + WIS-scaled
+    `FlatDmgStart` burst — same shape as the Phase-2 Bard/Mage/Warlock pass.
+    Kept the DR; no `DamageBonus` rider, so high-tier ceilings stay flat.
+  - **Sorcerer passive** (`dnd_passives.go`): burst base 3→5. Sorcerer was
+    the second-worst caster off-tier (L1/T2 0.10 vs Mage 0.27 pre-tune)
+    despite a comparable stat line; the bump pulls it toward parity with
+    the other arcane chassis.
+
+  Added an off-tier-trailer diagnostic (`dnd_class_balance_test.go`) — for
+  each (level, tier) cell where the player is below the in-tier band, the
+  log names the trailing class and its mean win rate. Not asserted: an
+  L1 walking into T2 is *supposed* to be hard, so the diagnostic is for
+  watching the gap, not the absolute number.
+
+  Observed lifts:
+  - Druid L1/T1: 0.77 → 0.86 (+9pp). The chassis is now functional at its
+    intended tier.
+  - L2/T2 cross-class spread: 77pp → 63pp. Druid trailer 0.23 → 0.35.
+  - L1/T1 spread: 23pp → 14pp.
+
+  In-tier parity assertion (35pp band on the diagonal) still passes. No
+  off-tier cell saturated past where it was — the lift is shape-correct.
+  **← current**
+- **Phase 4 (if needed) — second-order.** Subclass-vs-subclass spread within a
+  class; the Paladin/Rogue MAD question if the data shows it bites. The L5/T4
+  wild-magic Sorcerer cell (0.14 individual, off-tier) is the most obvious
+  next target if subclass parity needs another pass.
 
 ## 6. Tuning levers (priority order)
 

internal/plugin/dnd_class_balance_test.go

@@ -277,6 +277,67 @@ func TestClassBalance_Phase1_FullMatrix(t *testing.T) {
 		t.Logf("L%-4d %s", lvl, line)
 	}
 
+	// Phase-3 diagnostic — off-tier trailer per (level, tier). For each cell
+	// where the level is *below* the in-tier band (e.g. L1 at T2-T5), print the
+	// trailing class and its win rate. This is what Phase 3 lifts: the casual
+	// player who walks into a slightly-too-hard dungeon underleveled. Not
+	// asserted — Phase 3 tunes against the diagnostic numbers and the next
+	// phase decides whether to lock a soft off-tier band.
+	offTierLevels := map[int][]int{
+		2: {1, 2},
+		3: {1, 2, 3, 4},
+		4: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5},
+		5: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7},
+	}
+	t.Logf("")
+	t.Logf("off-tier trailer per (level, tier) — class winrate is mean over subclasses (or single cell pre-L5):")
+	t.Logf("%-5s   T2                T3                T4                T5", "lvl")
+	for _, lvl := range allLevels {
+		var line string
+		for tier := 2; tier <= 5; tier++ {
+			levels := offTierLevels[tier]
+			matched := false
+			for _, l := range levels {
+				if l == lvl {
+					matched = true
+					break
+				}
+			}
+			if !matched {
+				line += " " + "       —         "
+				continue
+			}
+			var trailerClass DnDClass
+			minV := 1.01
+			for _, ci := range dndClasses {
+				var sum float64
+				var n int
+				if lvl < 5 {
+					if r, ok := rows[rowKey{ci.Key, "", lvl}]; ok {
+						sum = r[tier].WinRate()
+						n = 1
+					}
+				} else {
+					for _, si := range subclassesForClass(ci.Key) {
+						if r, ok := rows[rowKey{ci.Key, si.ID, lvl}]; ok {
+							sum += r[tier].WinRate()
+							n++
+						}
+					}
+				}
+				if n == 0 {
+					continue
+				}
+				wr := sum / float64(n)
+				if wr < minV {
+					minV, trailerClass = wr, ci.Key
+				}
+			}
+			line += fmt.Sprintf(" %-10s %.2f  ", trailerClass, minV)
+		}
+		t.Logf("L%-4d %s", lvl, line)
+	}
+
 	// Harness-broken gates first.
 	for _, r := range results {
 		if r.Tier == 1 && r.WinRate() == 0 {

internal/plugin/dnd_passives.go

@@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ var dndClassAbilities = map[DnDClass]DnDClassAbility{
 	// CombatModifiers channels the same way the original five do.
 	ClassDruid: {
 		Name:        "Wild Resilience",
-		Description: "The wild lends you its toughness: incoming damage is reduced 5%.",
+		Description: "The wild lends you its toughness — incoming damage is reduced 5% — and a thorn surge on engage scaled by your Wisdom.",
 	},
 	ClassBard: {
 		Name:        "Bardic Inspiration",
@@ -137,6 +137,14 @@ func applyClassPassives(stats *CombatStats, mods *CombatModifiers, c *DnDCharact
 		// subclass DamageReduct riders. DamageReduct is initialized to 1.0
 		// by DerivePlayerStats before passives run.
 		mods.DamageReduct *= 0.95
+		// Phase 3 class-balance: druid was the only caster chassis with a
+		// purely defensive passive, and the off-tier numbers showed it —
+		// L1/T2 mean 0.04 vs Mage 0.27. Mirror the other caster bursts so
+		// the L1-4 druid can chip a T2 monster: WIS-scaled FlatDmgStart on
+		// engage. No DamageBonus rider; the chassis keeps its defensive
+		// identity, and the burst alone (plus the existing DR) lifts the
+		// off-tier cells without pushing in-tier wins past 1.0.
+		mods.FlatDmgStart += c.Level + clampNonNeg(abilityModifier(c.WIS))
 	case ClassBard:
 		// Phase 2 class-balance: bare +1 initiative left Bard the weakest
 		// class chassis (T5 mean 0.48 pre-tune). Add a Ranger-tier rider
@@ -149,11 +157,15 @@ func applyClassPassives(stats *CombatStats, mods *CombatModifiers, c *DnDCharact
 		mods.FlatDmgStart += c.Level + clampNonNeg(abilityModifier(c.CHA))
 	case ClassSorcerer:
 		// Innate Sorcery — pre-combat burst, CHA-scaled like the Sorcerer's
-		// spellcasting stat. Floors at the flat 3 for low-CHA builds.
+		// spellcasting stat. Floors at the flat base for low-CHA builds.
 		// Phase 2 class-balance: pure FlatDmgStart faded at higher tiers as
 		// monster HP grew. Adding a 5% damage rider plus level scaling on the
 		// burst keeps the chassis relevant past L1.
-		mods.FlatDmgStart += 3 + c.Level + clampNonNeg(abilityModifier(c.CHA))
+		// Phase 3 class-balance: sorcerer was the second-worst off-tier caster
+		// (L1/T2 0.10 pre-tune), trailing mage by ~17pp despite a comparable
+		// stat line. Bump the burst base 3→5 to lift the L1-4 chassis without
+		// touching the +0.05 rider that already saturates at high tier.
+		mods.FlatDmgStart += 5 + c.Level + clampNonNeg(abilityModifier(c.CHA))
 		mods.DamageBonus += 0.05
 	case ClassWarlock:
 		// Phase 2 class-balance: bumped from 10% to 12% damage + 1 attack —

internal/plugin/dnd_xp_test.go

@@ -229,13 +229,16 @@ func TestApplyClassPassives(t *testing.T) {
 		// burst now also scales with level, and Warlock picked up +1 attack.
 		// CHA/INT are 0 in this zero-value sheet → abilityModifier = -5,
 		// clamped to 0 by clampNonNeg. Paladin at L1 is still 4 + 0.
+		// Phase 3 class-balance: Druid picked up a WIS-scaled FlatDmgStart burst
+		// (lvl 1 + clamp(mod(WIS=0)) = 1), and Sorcerer's burst base went 3→5
+		// (5 + 1 + clamp(mod(CHA=10)=0) = 6).
 		{ClassRogue, 0.05, 0, true, 0, 1.0, 0, 0},
 		{ClassMage, 0.05, 1, false, 0, 1.0, 1, 0},
 		{ClassCleric, 0, 0, false, 5, 1.0, 0, 0},
 		{ClassRanger, 0.05, 1, false, 0, 1.0, 0, 0},
-		{ClassDruid, 0, 0, false, 0, 0.95, 0, 0},
+		{ClassDruid, 0, 0, false, 0, 0.95, 1, 0},
 		{ClassBard, 0.05, 1, false, 0, 1.0, 1, 1},
-		{ClassSorcerer, 0.05, 0, false, 0, 1.0, 4, 0},
+		{ClassSorcerer, 0.05, 0, false, 0, 1.0, 6, 0},
 		{ClassWarlock, 0.12, 1, false, 0, 1.0, 1, 0},
 		{ClassPaladin, 0, 0, false, 0, 1.0, 4, 0},
 	}