prosolis 0f09a421bc Phase 2 (diag): cadence sweep, gear-tier fix, lethality probe ...

Three Phase 2 diagnostic artifacts. No tuning knob has moved on
production code yet — these tests calibrate the harness and surface
the real first lever for next session.

1) Cadence calibration sweep
   TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_CadenceCalibration sweeps
   HarvestRollsPerDay ∈ {1,2,3,4} across the full Phase 1 matrix and
   logs per-cell + per-tier completion. Required a new
   HarvestRollsPerDay field on expeditionBalanceProfile so cells can
   override the package-default constant. Finding: cadence is NOT the
   dominant lever — at rolls=1 the T1 cell only reaches 2%, with
   bimodal hp_left (100% survivors / 0% deaths). Killed the cadence
   hypothesis from Phase 1's commit message.

2) Gear-tier centerline fix
   phase1TierCenterline bumped for T3/T4/T5 (8→9, 11→13, 15→17). The
   shared gearTier ladder (5/9/13/17 boundaries) was placing T3/T4/T5
   centerlines one gear bracket *below* the zone's tier, so those
   cells fought with under-spec'd weapons/armor. New centerlines are
   the lowest level in each tier's design-doc range where gearTier ==
   tier. All centerlines still inside their design-doc ranges. Effect
   in the sweep at rolls=1: underforge T3 1.0% → 10.5% comp, underdark
   T4 flipped from pure combat-death to 14% starve (i.e. fighter now
   survives combat, runs out of food). Real bug, but small — the
   structural lethality problem remains.

3) Lethality probe + traceFight hook
   TestExpeditionBalance_Phase2_LethalityProbe runs 5 trials at the
   cleanest cell (T1 goblin_warrens L3 fighter, rolls=1) with a new
   optional traceFight hook on expeditionHarness that logs
   monster/AC/atk/HP-pre/HP-post/outcome per fight. Hook is nil in
   production runs, zero cost when unused. Finding: at T1, the
   InterruptElite branch keeps drawing Hobgoblin Warchief (AC 18,
   atk +5) from goblin_warrens' elite roster, and an L3 fighter has
   ~coin-flip odds against a CR-6-ish elite. One bad draw = dead;
   that's the bimodal hp_left fingerprint from the sweep. Non-elite
   draws (Worg, AC 13) play out as normal multi-round combats and
   are winnable.

Next-session lever choices, in order of suspected impact:
  - Roster gate: Hobgoblin Warchief out of (or weighted down in)
    the T1 elite pool — it's tier-disproportionate for goblin_warrens.
  - InterruptElite threshold: rarer elite-bracket draws at low threat
    so a single d20 swing doesn't equal expedition end.
  - Tier-floor cap on already-over-tier bestiary entries.

Plan doc: gogobee_expedition_difficulty.md §Phase 2.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-05-15 09:39:31 -07:00

20 KiB

Raw Blame History

View Raw