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Phase 4-B closed the per-zone outliers but T2/T3/T5 sibling pairs sit
below band as a group (T2 7-13% vs 62-82%; T3 3-14% vs 54-74%; T5
25-57% vs 36-56%). The plan doc's three tier-wide candidates (gear-
tier centerline remap, per-tier elite threshold, ship burn=75) needed
disambiguation before pulling any of them.
TestExpeditionBalance_Phase5A_TierWideSensitivity runs the 6 problem
zones through three one-axis sweeps holding the other two levers at
Phase 3-B best (e=23, d=1, burn=50):
Axis L player level {centerline-2, centerline, centerline+2}
Axis E elite threshold {18, 23, 28}
Axis B supply burn pct {40, 50, 60}
200 trials/cell × 6 zones × 9 cells = 10.8k trials; runs in 0.31s.
Reuses the harness's traceFightStruct plumbing for elite-vs-standard
fight share alongside comp/death/starve.
Reading (full numbers in the plan doc):
- Player level is the dominant lever at T2/T3. +2 levels lifts
completion meaningfully; the elite gate and burn are inert.
- Elite threshold is already at its sweet spot at e=23 — e=18
floods elites and collapses every tier; e=28 is flat. Per-tier
threshold candidate is killed.
- burn=75 globally is killed. burn=60 alone produces 36%/61%
starve at T5; the Phase 3-B negative result holds tier-wide.
- T5 dragons_lair is already in-band at the baseline (60.5%);
the T5 gap is really an abyss_portal-only gap.
- The level-bump path has a catch: L7 at T2 (max of design range,
still gearTier=2) only reaches ~27%, well below the 62-82% band.
Closing T2 properly likely needs a cross-gearTier-boundary
centerline (T2 → L9 = gearTier 3) — a design call for Phase 5-B,
not a knob twist.
Diagnostic-only — no gates. -short skips. Plan doc updated with
numbers and three Phase 5-B candidate moves (cross-bracket centerline
bump recommended; player combat-math retune is the bigger option;
lowering the band target is the fallback).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>