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gogobee/internal/plugin
prosolis d0a8505c76 Phase 5a (diag): tier-wide sensitivity sweep on T2/T3/T5 under-band zones
Phase 4-B closed the per-zone outliers but T2/T3/T5 sibling pairs sit
below band as a group (T2 7-13% vs 62-82%; T3 3-14% vs 54-74%; T5
25-57% vs 36-56%). The plan doc's three tier-wide candidates (gear-
tier centerline remap, per-tier elite threshold, ship burn=75) needed
disambiguation before pulling any of them.

TestExpeditionBalance_Phase5A_TierWideSensitivity runs the 6 problem
zones through three one-axis sweeps holding the other two levers at
Phase 3-B best (e=23, d=1, burn=50):

  Axis L  player level    {centerline-2, centerline, centerline+2}
  Axis E  elite threshold {18, 23, 28}
  Axis B  supply burn pct {40, 50, 60}

200 trials/cell × 6 zones × 9 cells = 10.8k trials; runs in 0.31s.
Reuses the harness's traceFightStruct plumbing for elite-vs-standard
fight share alongside comp/death/starve.

Reading (full numbers in the plan doc):

  - Player level is the dominant lever at T2/T3. +2 levels lifts
    completion meaningfully; the elite gate and burn are inert.
  - Elite threshold is already at its sweet spot at e=23 — e=18
    floods elites and collapses every tier; e=28 is flat. Per-tier
    threshold candidate is killed.
  - burn=75 globally is killed. burn=60 alone produces 36%/61%
    starve at T5; the Phase 3-B negative result holds tier-wide.
  - T5 dragons_lair is already in-band at the baseline (60.5%);
    the T5 gap is really an abyss_portal-only gap.
  - The level-bump path has a catch: L7 at T2 (max of design range,
    still gearTier=2) only reaches ~27%, well below the 62-82% band.
    Closing T2 properly likely needs a cross-gearTier-boundary
    centerline (T2 → L9 = gearTier 3) — a design call for Phase 5-B,
    not a knob twist.

Diagnostic-only — no gates. -short skips. Plan doc updated with
numbers and three Phase 5-B candidate moves (cross-bracket centerline
bump recommended; player combat-math retune is the bigger option;
lowering the band target is the fallback).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-15 11:36:17 -07:00
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