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d225fc8185
53 resources affected in dnd_resource_registry.go; Common (mostly already 2), VeryRare, and Legendary untouched. Calibration sim (15k rows, 10 classes × L3/7/12 × 5 zones) lands cleared-run yield deltas at −2.5% to +4.7% vs the J2b baseline — well within the ±10% DoD band, but with much less leverage than the plan anticipated. The finding (sim_results/h4_findings.md): per-room yield is gated by non-Noise interrupt truncation, not charge count. The Common consolation bracket (delta ≥ -4 yields +1) already absorbs most of the Josie nerf. Future yield tuning should reach for resolveCombatInterrupt, not charges — parked as out-of-scope for this branch. H4 closes; the phase-H branch can now soak H1/H2/H3/H5 + this bump.
61 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
61 lines
4.9 KiB
Markdown
# H4 — Charge calibration findings
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**Date:** 2026-05-17
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**Corpus:** `h4_calibration_v1_all10.jsonl` (15k rows, 10 classes × L3/7/12 × 5 zones × n=100). Summary: `h4_calibration_v1_summary.txt`.
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**Baseline for comparison:** `baseline_j2a_v2_all10.jsonl` (post-J2b picker, current shipped state).
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**Change under test:** every `RarityUncommon` and `RarityRare` resource bumped from `MaxCharges: 1` → `MaxCharges: 2` in `dnd_resource_registry.go` (53 resources). Commons (already mostly 2), VeryRare/Legendary (trophy tier) untouched.
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## TL;DR
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**Charge counts are not the binding constraint on yield.** The bump from 1 → 2 charges on every Uncommon and Rare resource produces a tiny net change in cleared-run yield, ranging from −2.5% (forest) to +4.7% (goblin). The H4 DoD (±10% yield parity) is satisfied trivially because the lever has almost no leverage.
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| zone | cleared mean yield (J2b) | cleared mean yield (H4) | Δ% |
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| ---------------- | -----------------------: | ----------------------: | ---: |
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| goblin_warrens | 5.99 | 6.27 | +4.7 |
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| forest_shadows | 8.17 | 7.97 | −2.5 |
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| manor_blackspire | 5.50 | 5.37 | −2.4 |
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| underdark | 6.30 | 6.16 | −2.2 |
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| dragons_lair | — | — | — |
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All deltas are within n=100 noise (~±5% on these means).
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## Why charge counts don't move the needle
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Two compounding mechanics cap per-room yield well below "all charges spent":
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1. **Standard/Elite/Patrol interrupts abort the entire room harvest pass.** `autoHarvestRoom` returns immediately on any non-Noise interrupt (`internal/plugin/dnd_expedition_autopilot_harvest.go:160-175`). Bumping charges *adds more interrupt rolls per room*, which slightly *increases* the chance the room ends before higher-rarity actions even fire — the Forage action runs first, so its extra charges can squander the room budget before Fish/Essence/Commune get a swing.
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2. **The Common consolation bracket** (`resolveHarvestOutcome`, delta -1 to -4) already softens the Josie nerf: even a "failed" roll within 4 below DC yields +1. P(Nothing) is only 0-50% across the realistic DC×modifier range, so the Josie penalty per charge was ~25-50%, not 100%.
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Net effect: doubling charges roughly doubles the *potential* yield ceiling per resource, but the per-room interrupt-truncation budget is fixed. Yield reshuffles between resources within a room (Fey Bloom +55% in forest, Darkwood −36%, Biolum Fungi −35% — see `mean_yields_by_name` slice) without changing the per-run total.
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## What this means for the H4 DoD
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The plan's DoD reads:
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> Monte Carlo shows yield parity within ±10% across tiers; rare nodes feel rare (success rate visibly < 50%) but not punishing across a full expedition.
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Both legs are met:
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- **Parity:** all four sampled zones land within ±5% of the J2b baseline.
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- **Rare-feel:** charge bumps don't change DCs; success rate per attempt is unchanged. A 1→2 MC bump only means "two swings instead of one" on the same DC, so rares still take two attempts on average to land.
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The implicit goal — restore pre-Josie yields — is **not** met. We don't have a pre-Josie sim corpus to compare against (H1 shipped before the sim was built). Analytically, pre-Josie yields would be ~1.3× (low DC) to 2× (high DC) the post-Josie per-charge expectation. H4 closes maybe 5-30% of that gap depending on zone, because of the interrupt cap.
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## Recommendation
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**Ship the bump as-is.** It's a narrative/feel win (more swings, longer node depletion arcs) and a small yield lift in goblin_warrens — the entry zone. The cost is zero (registry-only change, no code touched, all tests green).
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**Do not chase the rest of the gap by tuning interrupts.** The difficulty memo (`feedback_difficulty_target`) says lift trailers without pushing monster scaling, and harvest-interrupt frequency is part of the per-zone threat economy. Reducing interrupt rate would lift yield universally but also weaken the threat-loop feedback (`§4.2 Combat Interrupt`). Out of scope for this branch.
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**Document the finding** so a future tuner doesn't reach for the charge knob again expecting big swings.
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## Files
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- `dnd_resource_registry.go` — 53 resources bumped.
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- `h4_calibration_v1_all10.jsonl` / `.err` — sim corpus.
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- `h4_calibration_v1_summary.txt` — per-cell summary.
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## Open items rolled forward
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- **Interrupt-frequency tune** (not H4): if harvest yields ever need to lift another 20-30%, the right lever is `resolveCombatInterrupt` rates in `dnd_expedition_harvest.go`, not charge counts. Park as a future tuning option.
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- **Pre-Josie baseline corpus** (not needed): a one-shot git revert of H1 + sim run would give the true target. Skipping unless someone disputes the "interrupt-cap is the real ceiling" finding.
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