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The Phase 3-B sweep wrung out the global lever surface and named four
zones that read ~0% completion under every (elite-threshold, drift,
nick-floor, supply-burn) combo: crypt_valdris T1, forest_shadows T2,
manor_blackspire T3, abyss_portal T5. Each has a healthy sibling at
the same tier (goblin_warrens 44%, sunken_temple 13.5%, underforge
2.5%, dragons_lair 57.5%) so the gap is per-zone, not tier-wide.
Adds a structured per-fight trace hook (traceFightStruct + the
harnessFightTrace struct that mirrors the existing string trace) so
diagnostics can aggregate without parsing the formatted log line.
Mirror-format with traceFight; if a field is added, update both
paths.
TestExpeditionBalance_Phase4A_OutlierDiagnostic walks the four
outlier-vs-sibling pairs at 200 trials each on the Phase 3-A/3-B best
cell (e=23 d=1 burn=50) and reports per-monster appearances /
win-rate / avg HP loss / kill attribution + day-of-end histogram +
elite-vs-standard fight mix.
Findings:
- crypt_valdris: dual-killer elite pool (Wight 99 kills, Flameskull
68). Phase 2c left this zone untouched ("already dual-elite") but
both elites are over-tier for T1.
- forest_shadows: standard pool too lethal — Displacer Beast (53
kills, 38% win standard) + Bandit Captain (48 kills, 57% win).
- manor_blackspire: Wraith on the standard slot is dragging the
floor (85 kills, 45hp loss per win). Vampire Spawn + Revenant
elite pair is also rough.
- abyss_portal: Nalfeshnee mis-classified standard (86 kills, 2.8%
win at L17). Vrock at 79% win is borderline.
Phase 4-B applies per-zone roster tweaks (IsElite re-flag, drop a
deadly entry, soften a SpawnWeight) — no monster stat-block changes.
T3 may need a follow-up tier-wide pass since the sibling underforge
also sits at 2.5%; out of scope here.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>