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68b2122e13
autoResolveCombat now calls maybeShortRest after a won fight (HP < 60% or any slots used, charges > 0), mirroring what a competent prod player does between rooms. Re-baseline at n=100 across the full 10×3×5 matrix written to baseline_h5sim_all10.jsonl. Headline (vs baseline_j2a_v2_all10.jsonl, full delta in h5sim_findings.md): mage L12 manor +8pp, cleric L12 manor +7pp, but bard L12 manor stays at 1pp and bard/cleric L12 underdark still 0. J2c (defaultKnownSpells damage option at L3+ for bard, L4+ for cleric) is still the lever for the trailers. Four borderline -9pp regressions on n=100 cells; flagged for an n=300 re-run before declaring a sim defect.
40 lines
2.5 KiB
Markdown
40 lines
2.5 KiB
Markdown
# H5-sim re-baseline — does prod short-rest close the caster gap?
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**Corpus:** `baseline_h5sim_all10.jsonl` (15k rows, n=100). Summary table: `h5sim_all10_summary.txt`. **Baseline for comparison:** `baseline_j2a_v2_all10.jsonl` (J2b).
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## TL;DR
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**No.** Wiring short-rest into the sim between rooms gives mage L12 manor a real lift (+8pp clear rate) but does not move the bard/cleric trailers in the cells that matter:
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| class | lvl | zone | J2b %clr | H5sim %clr | Δ |
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| ------ | --- | ---------------- | -------: | ---------: | -: |
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| bard | 12 | manor_blackspire | 2 | 1 | −1 |
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| cleric | 12 | manor_blackspire | 9 | 16 | +7 |
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| bard | 12 | underdark | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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| cleric | 12 | underdark | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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| mage | 12 | manor_blackspire | 49 | 57 | +8 |
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J2c (defaultKnownSpells widening — bard damage option at L3+, cleric at L4+) is still the lever. The hypothesis that H5 alone would close it is falsified.
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## Notable regressions (n=100, ~±10pp 95% CI — borderline)
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| class | lvl | zone | J2b %clr | H5sim %clr | Δ |
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| -------- | --- | ---------------- | -------: | ---------: | -: |
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| warlock | 12 | manor_blackspire | 34 | 25 | −9 |
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| sorcerer | 12 | manor_blackspire | 47 | 38 | −9 |
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| cleric | 3 | goblin_warrens | 15 | 6 | −9 |
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| ranger | 3 | goblin_warrens | 64 | 54 | −10 |
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n=100 standard error on a 50/50 cell is ~5pp, so these are ~2σ. Could be real (the picker prefers high-tier slots and short-rest refreshes low-tier first, so a mid-zone short rest may flush the high-tier-slot budget by encouraging more L2/L3 spends), or noise. Re-run at n=300 to disambiguate before declaring this a sim defect.
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## Cells that lifted
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Mage L12 manor +8, cleric L12 manor +7, fighter L3 goblin +10, druid L7 forest +8, sorcerer L7 forest +4, mage L7 goblin +3. Pattern: classes that already had viable damage rosters benefited; classes whose damage rosters are thin (bard/cleric) did not.
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## Verdict
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- Ship H5+sim short-rest as-is — the prod fix (full-HP gate loosened) is correct independently and the sim now reflects what a competent player does.
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- J2c (defaultKnownSpells widening) is still required to lift bard/cleric trailers.
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- T5 dragons_lair untouched (0% across all 10 classes) — J3 territory.
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- Re-baseline at n=300 on the four borderline regressions before tuning the picker.
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