simPickSpell now enumerates one candidate per available slot >= native
for every prepared damage spell, scored via spellExpectedDamage with the
existing "+1 die per slot" scaling. Cantrips contribute a single slot-0
candidate. Tie-break: highest slot first, then highest expDmg. Picker
returns "<id> --upcast N" when the winning slot exceeds native so
parseCombatCast upcasts in the engine. Build + plugin tests green.
Then: measured zero impact. d8b_corpus.jsonl (same 10x5x100 matrix as
d7d) lands every class within +/-1.5pp of d7d baseline.
Root cause discovered post-corpus: simPickSpell is dead code in the
current sim path. Commit 68ed8e7 ("Long expeditions D3: compact
autopilot auto-resolves boss rooms") added a !compact gate at
dnd_expedition_cmd.go:810 so compact autopilot inline-resolves boss/
elite rooms via resolveCombatRoom -> runZoneCombat -> SimulateCombat
instead of returning stopBoss/stopElite for autoResolveCombat to handle.
The sim uses compact=true (expedition_sim.go:433), so autoResolveCombat
- the only caller of simPickCombatAction/simPickSpell - never fires.
Verified empirically: a stderr-traced simPickSpell produced zero hits
across full bard/cleric L10 runs.
This rewrites the picker-era retrospective. J2's baseline_j2a_v2_all10
(bard 40%, cleric 39%) was measured before D3 with the picker live.
d7d's L10 baseline (bard 34%, cleric 21%) is post-D3 with the picker
disconnected - that 6-18pp drop is the post-D3 caster regression, not
"long-expedition mechanics didn't help casters" as d7d framed it.
D8-a's "+2.2pp cleric" was also noise (1sigma ~ 1.8pp on n=500).
D8-b code kept in tree (correct, currently inert, turns on as soon as
the wire reconnects). Plan rewritten in section 8: D8-b and D8-c are
deferred behind D8-prereq, which splits compact so the sim opts out of
compact-inline boss/elite combat without affecting prod rendering.
Files:
- internal/plugin/expedition_sim.go: simPickSpell upcast enumeration
- gogobee_long_expedition_plan.md: D8-b implemented-but-inert,
D8-prereq added as next step
- sim_results/d8b_corpus.jsonl: 5000-row corpus retained for the
picker-dead baseline
Fix sim regression introduced by D5-b: bare `expedition start <zone>`
returns the loadout prompt DM without outfitting, so SimRunner.RunExpedition
was halting before persisting any expedition. Pass `heavy` from the
harness — tier-max packs, no prod paths touched.
D7-d corpus (sim_results/, gitignored): n=100 × 10 classes × 5 zones ×
L10. Leaderboard mirrors J2b — martials 78–82%, casters 21–42%, cluster
gap unchanged by long-expedition mechanics. Cleric worst at 21% (L10).
Bard/cleric trailers not relieved by autopilot camp pacing; remains
J3-territory. T3/T4 cleared runs hit their §2 target durations.
D5-d retune decision: no change. phase5BDailyBurnRatePct=50 + per-tier
DailyBurn stay as-is — heavy-preset cleared runs end with 78–98% SU
surplus; even TPK runs leave packs mostly full. Supply economy is not
a binding constraint at heavy preset.
Closes the long-expedition track.
cmd/expedition-sim -days N caps runs by synthetic day rollovers
(Outcome="day_capped"). SimResult.DaySnapshots traces HP/SU/threat/rooms
at start, every Night-camp rollover, and end-of-run — unblocks empirical
D5-d retune of phase5BDailyBurnRatePct against per-day SU draws.
maybeAutoCamp / pitchAutopilotCamp / pitchBossSafetyCamp now take a
now time.Time so the sim can inject a synthetic clock; tryAutoRun
still passes time.Now().UTC(). SimRunner.RunExpedition advances simNow
by autoRunCooldown per walk and runs the production camp scheduler
after each soft stop (and pitchBossSafetyCamp on stopBossSafety),
dwelling minAutoCampDwell + breakAutoCampIfDue so the next walk can
proceed. Effect: HP-low mid-day rests, base-camp waypoints, Night-camp
rollovers, and boss-safety holds all fire under the sim; D7-a's
tickEventAnchoredRollover shortcut is retained on TickDay for tests
and the pre-cutoff legacy path.
deliverBriefingEventAnchored reads time.Now().UTC() for its safety-net
check, so synthetic TickDay calls never advanced CurrentDay on D2-b
expeditions — DaysAtEnd / SUEnd stayed at start values. Short-circuit
in TickDay: when isEventAnchored, fire nightRolloverBurn → optional
applyCampRest (Standard, Rough fallback, skipped on low-SU) →
nightRolloverDrift(briefAt). Mirrors pitchAutopilotCamp Night=true.
Production paths untouched.
Unblocks D5-d retune of phase5BDailyBurnRatePct and the class corpus
re-run.
Rewrite !expedition help around the autopilot loop, frame !camp/!fight
as overrides, and add Day X / ~Y expected + rooms/total + last-3-events
to !expedition status.
§4.2's "Ranger, 1d4 SU/day" perk had been dead since Phase 12 E1b —
SupplyForageMaxSU was defined but unreferenced, ForagedToday was only
ever reset to false. New applyRangerForage helper grants 1d4 SU once
per day (headroom-capped, Ranger-only), fires at the top of
nightRolloverBurn, and surfaces as a "forage" line in the end-of-day
digest. No DC roll — accessibility over crunch, and the D5-a caps
already give all loadouts comfortable headroom.
`!expedition start <zone>` (and `!resume`) with no pack arg now DMs a
Lean / Balanced / Heavy menu sized per zone tier. Player replies with
the preset name (short forms l/b/h also work). Raw `Ns Md` syntax stays
as the advanced override.
Heavy always equals supplyPackCaps (the D5-a harsh×3 ceiling); Lean
covers intended days at raw burn; Balanced sits between.
Today's global SupplyPackStandardMax=3 / SupplyPackDeluxeMax=1 were
a 2-day shape; with D1's longer room budgets and D2-b's event-anchored
night burns, a T4/T5 player can't legally buy enough supplies for the
intended duration. supplyPackCaps(tier) now returns (std,dlx) per
tier — T1/T2: (2,1); T3: (3,1) unchanged; T4: (5,1); T5: (7,2) —
sized to clear DailyBurn(raw) × intendedDays × 1.3 even with the
harsh×3 multiplier layered on. Validate takes a tier; both call sites
(!expedition start, !resume) pass the resolved zone's tier. Holiday
+1 standard pack still bypasses the cap on purpose. DailyBurn /
phase5BDailyBurnRatePct unchanged; that's a D7 lever once the sim
can measure event-anchored rollovers.
Event-anchored expeditions no longer pin their re-engagement DM to 06:00
UTC. The ticker skips idle players (last_activity older than today's
threshold, inside the 28h safety net); maybeDeliverDeferredBriefing fires
the owed briefing on the next inbound message in any room. The OnMessage
hook also stamps last_activity so chat presence (not just bot commands)
counts toward "the player is here."
Suppress per-tick auto-walk DMs in compact mode. tryAutoRun now only
surfaces for fork / death / run-complete / boss-safety camp / Night-camp
pitch. A Night-camp pitch flushes the day as an EoD digest (counts of
walk/harvest/interrupt plus threat/milestone/narrative bullets, built
from dnd_expedition_log) followed by the camp block. Each successful
background walk writes a `walk` log entry so the digest can count rooms
without persisting raw stream narration. maybeAutoCamp and
pitchBossSafetyCamp now return the autoCampDecision so callers can
branch on dec.Night.
Drops the boss carve-out in the compact (background autorun) path so
boss rooms resolve through the same forward-sim engine elites already
use. A `bossSafetyGate` (HP < 80% / supplies < daily burn /
exhaustion >= 3) guards the engage; when it trips, the walk returns
`stopBossSafety` and the autorun ticker force-pitches a rest camp via
`pitchBossSafetyCamp` (bypasses the normal scheduler's HP threshold
and its RoomBoss room-type block; keeps event-anchored night handling).
`resolveCombatRoom` now selects monster + label + loot drop by
`run.CurrentRoomType()` so the same callsite handles boss kills
(zone.Boss bestiary, "Boss — name down", boss-loot drop, elite-tier
threat bump). The walk loop only breaks at elite/boss doorways when
`!compact`; compact lets the next iteration auto-resolve.
Foreground `!fight` and `!expedition run` are unchanged. Sim path is
unaffected — stopBossSafety falls into the default soft-stop branch.
Splits the legacy briefing body into nightRolloverBurn + nightRolloverDrift,
plus a processNightCamp convenience. For expeditions started after the new
eventAnchoredCutoff, the 06:00 UTC briefing stops mutating: it posts a
re-engagement DM, and only force-fires processNightCamp itself after a 28h
safety-net window. Day++/burn/threat-drift now ride along the autopilot
night-camp pitch (decideAutopilotCamp sets Night=true when ≥16h since the
last rollover) and on the first player !camp since the last rollover. The
legacy UTC-anchored flow still works via the same staged helpers, with
processOvernightCamp interleaved to preserve the rest-before-drift ordering.
Tests pin eventAnchoredCutoff to year 9999 in TestMain so the existing
legacy assertions still run; new tests cover the night decision, the
night-camp pitch advancing the day, the event-anchored skip, and the
safety-net force-rollover.
New expedition_autocamp.go: pure decideAutopilotCamp + pitchAutopilotCamp
+ dwell-window lifecycle. Wired into tryAutoRun so the background ticker
pitches a rest camp on low HP and a base-camp waypoint on region-boss
clear; auto-pitched camps last minAutoCampDwell (4h) before the next tick
breaks them and walks. CampState.AutoPitched separates auto- vs player-
pitched camp lifetimes so a player !camp stays sticky.
Day-rollover semantics unchanged — still UTC-anchored; D2-b moves
day++/burn/threat-drift onto the camp-pitch event.
