prosolis
25ea23f9d9
Phase 5C (rosters): T3 polish + feywild T4-spread fix
...
Phase 5-B's exit named two follow-ups: T3 below band (manor 39 /
underforge 47 vs 55-75) and the T4 spread (feywild 59 vs underdark
88, 30pp asymmetry). Phase 5-C re-runs the Phase 4-A trace on the
four affected zones under the shipped Phase 5-B cell and applies
roster knobs only (IsElite + SpawnWeight; no bestiary stat-block
touches).
TestExpeditionBalance_Phase5C_OutlierDiagnostic names the killer
per zone:
manor_blackspire (53%): Vampire Spawn (72% win, 42 kills) +
Revenant (16% win, 31 kills at SW=1, can't go lower). First
attempt trimmed VS SW 3 -> 2 and backfired by concentrating
elite share on Revenant (kills jumped to 48); reverted.
underforge (49.5%): Fire Elemental (57 kills, 61hp/win) +
Salamander (33 kills) carry the lethality; Helmed Horror only
100%-win elite but SW=1, no dilution effect.
feywild_crossing (54%): only 2 elites in the pool; Fomorian
(50% win, SW=1) still pulls 25% of elite picks and owns 65
kills.
underdark (86%): Drow at SW=7 fills nearly half of standard
rolls at 100% win / 1.1hp loss -- free-HP filler.
Roster changes:
manor Banshee promoted to elite SW=2 (was standard SW=3,
99.6% win). Soft 4th elite slot dilutes Revenant share
~14% -> ~11%. Standards collapse to Shadow+Poltergeist
(>=99% win).
underforge Helmed Horror SW 1 -> 3. Three-way elite pool drops
Fire Elemental's share from ~44% to ~33%.
feywild Green Hag promoted to elite SW=2 (was standard SW=4).
Adds soft 3rd elite + removes a 16hp/win standard.
Standards become Redcap+Will-o-Wisp+Quickling.
underdark Drow SW 7 -> 5 (light trim per the user's "lift
trailers, don't nerf leaders" stance). Standards
shift toward Hook Horror / Drow Mage.
Phase 1 matrix after Phase 5-C (200 trials, Fighter @ centerline):
T1 88.5% spread 1.0 (in band 70-90)
T2 74.5% spread 15.0 (in band 62-82)
T3 56.7% spread 0.5 (in band 55-75) +13.5pp
T4 77.0% spread 13.0 (over band 45-65, matches 5-B target;
spread halved from 25.5)
T5 58.0% spread 40.0 (abyss_portal 38% is the residual)
T3 mean lifted +13.5pp; both zones inside band with 0.5pp residual
spread. T4 spread halved (25.5 -> 13.0pp) by lifting feywild
+11.5pp and trimming underdark -4.5pp. T1/T2/T5 untouched.
No test debt -- no production tests pin SpawnWeight or IsElite on
the changed entries (TestMonsterKillTags_GatesKnownMonsters checks
vampire_spawn tags only, unaffected). -short suite green.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-05-15 12:24:03 -07:00
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